Business Monitor International


Croatia Shipping Report

Published 18 September 2014

  • 106 pages
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$1,295.00
Croatia Shipping Report

Outlook For Croatia Remains Difficult

We remain downbeat about the Croatian economy, continuing to predict a sixth consecutive year of recession in 2014. While the rest of the EU economies are recovering Croatia is one of only two (the other is Cyprus) expected to see negative growth. The problem is weak household spending compounded by a lack of structural reforms. Croatia needs to increase labour market flexibility, reduce government bureaucracy and improve export competitiveness, or foreign investment and exports will remain anaemic. Unemployment remains high (nearly 20%), as are consumer debt levels. Public sector workers have been hit by wage and job cuts as part of the government's fiscal tightening. Uncertainty has also weakened investment flows. Net exports are having a marginally positive impact, but are outweighed by these other negative factors. As a result we have further reduced our GDP growth forecast to -0.7% this year (down from -0.3% in our last quarterly report). In 2015, we expect a weak return to growth with +0.6%.

Looking at the ports and shipping sector, we believe annual bulk cargo percentage growth will remain in the low single digits, although with GDP contracting, there are downside risks to this. More seriously perhaps, in the light of new data releases and signs of sharpening competition, we have reduced our predictions for box traffic this year at Rijeka quite drastically. We still believe the port has an important future role to play as a regional gateway, but question whether the current capacity expansion plans are running too far ahead of demand.

Headline Industry Data

  • In 2014, port of Rijeka tonnage volume will rise by 1.1% to 8.8mn tonnes, after 1.9% growth in 2013. Over the medium term to 2018, we project average annual growth of 1.4%.

  • 2014 port of Rijeka container throughput forecast to grow 1.3% to 132,703 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs). Over the medium term, we project a good average annual increase of 5.5%,...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
5
SWOT
7
Shipping
7
Political
8
Economic
9
Business Environment
10
Industry Forecast
11
Port Of Rijeka Throughput
11
Table: Major Ports Data (Croatia 2011-2018)
16
Table: Trade Overview (Croatia 2011-2018)
17
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Croatia 2011-2018)
17
Table: Top Import Partners, 2004-2012
18
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2004-2012
19
Market Overview
20
Croatia Container Shipping Market Overview
20
Industry Trends And Developments
26
Shipping - Global Industry View
28
Container Demand:
28
Container Supply:
36
Container Rates:
42
Global Company Strategy
45
Maersk Line
45
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
55
CMA CGM
62
Evergreen Line
73
COSCO Container Lines Company (COSCON)
80
Macroeconomic Forecasts
87
Croatia- Recovery To Lag Behind Europe
87
Table: Economic Activity (Croatia 2009-2018)
92
Demographic Forecast
93
Demographic Outlook
93
Table: Croatia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
94
Table: Croatia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
95
Table: Croatia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
96
Table: Croatia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
96

The Croatia Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Croatia.

BMI's Croatia Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Croatia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Croatia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Croatian shipping market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Croatia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Market Overview

Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).

Company Profiles

Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc