Modest Outlook For Croatian Port Activity Levels
BMI believes annual bulk cargo percentage growth at Croatia's ports will remain in the low single digits in 2015, partly reflecting the standstill in the local economy and unspectacular growth rates in foreign trade. In contrast however box traffic at the port of Rijeka will show some dynamism due to recent increases in capacity. We believe the port has an important future role to play as a regional gateway.
BMI expects the Croatian economy to remain at a standstill in 2015, as the government continues to struggle with a high debt load (representing almost 80% of GDP) and a large fiscal deficit (around 5% of GDP). This means that private consumption will act as a drag on growth: unemployment is high (around 20%), wage growth is anemic, and households have made only limited progress on deleveraging. There seems to be no escape from enforced austerity. We expect tax cuts and reductions in public spending during the course of 2015, and Croatia may eventually have to accept European Union/IMF financial help, which will come with strings attached - principally demands that the country carry out reforms to improve its competitiveness. Exports and foreign investment are likely to remain weak and unable to pull the economy out of its current stagnation. We are forecasting GDP growth of only 0.4% in 2015, following an estimated 0.8% contraction in 2014.
Headline Industry Data
In 2015, port of Rijeka tonnage volume will rise by 1.2% to 8.90mn tonnes, after 1.0% growth in 2014. Over the medium-term to 2019, we project average annual growth of 1.6%.
2015 port of Rijeka container throughput forecast to grow 5.2% to 139,550 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs). Over the medium-term, we project a strong average annual increase of 7.0%, significantly ahead of GDP.
2015 total trade growth forecast at 1.4%, following growth of 1.1% in 2014.
Key Industry Trends
Rijeka In the Black in January-September: According to...
The Croatia Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Croatia.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).
Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.