Business Monitor International


Croatia Shipping Report

Published 18 June 2014

  • 106 pages
 
$1,295.00
Croatia Shipping Report

Outlook For Croatia Gets Gloomier

BMI is bearish about Croatia's economic prospects this year, emphasizing that the continuing need to deleverage over-indebted households and companies is scuppering the chances of recovery. We have cut back out GDP forecast for 2014 from +0.4% in our last quarterly report to -0.3% now. This rather grim projection means we believe the country's economy is going to contract for the sixth consecutive year. The single most important cause for this is the weakness of the Croatian consumer, deterred by high unemployment, low purchasing power, high debt, and low levels of confidence. While the financial position of the banks is now a little better, they are in no position to expand credit significantly. Likewise, as the government remains focused on reducing its fiscal deficit there is little chance of stimulation from this quarter. The construction industry outlook is bleak. Although the recent accession to the EU may bring some dynamism to infrastructure investment, we don't think this will be a game-changer. The contribution from net exports is also overshadowed by structural and competitiveness issues in the country's manufacturing sector. Our conclusion is that in the absence of new reforms, Croatia could be facing many more years of economic pain.

Looking at the ports and shipping sector, we believe annual bulk cargo percentage growth will remain in the low single digits, although with GDP contracting, there are downside risks to this. The largely import and transit-led box traffic outlook is more encouraging, with growth in the higher single digits (between 5% and 10% per annum). This, at least in part, reflects the country's role as a regional gateway for transit trade. On the whole, we do not believe bulk tonnage handled at Croatia's main ports will exceed the record levels achieved back in 2007/08. On the container side, however, we see steady growth boosted by regional import demand.

Headline Industry Data

  • In 2014, port...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
5
SWOT
8
Shipping
8
Political
9
Economic
10
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
12
Port Of Rijeka Throughput
12
Table: Major Ports Data (Croatia 2011-2018)
17
Table: Trade Overview (Croatia 2011-2018)
18
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Croatia 2011-2018)
18
Table: Top Import Partners, 2004-2012
19
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2004-2012
20
Market Overview
21
Croatia Container Shipping Market Overview
21
Industry Trends And Developments
27
Shipping - Global Industry View
30
Container Demand:
30
Container Supply:
37
Container Rates:
43
Global Company Strategy
47
Maersk Line
47
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
60
CMA CGM
65
Evergreen Line
75
COSCO Container Lines Company (COSCON)
82
Macroeconomic Forecasts
89
Table: Croatia - Economic Activity
94
Demographic Forecast
95
Demographic Outlook
95
Table: Croatia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
96
Table: Croatia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
97
Table: Croatia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
98
Table: Croatia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
98

The Croatia Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Croatia.

BMI's Croatia Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Croatia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Croatia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Croatian shipping market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Croatia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Market Overview

Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).

Company Profiles

Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.

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