BMI View: One year into EU membership the hoped for economic boost has failed to materialise, coinciding with severe floods in Croatia's south earlier this year. We therefore expect the country's economy to contract by 0.7% this year with poor private consumption and export levels as well as a stagnating industry sector. All these factors have regressive implications for the commercial real estate market in 2014. Despite few developments in the pipeline and consequent limited supply, demand continued to fall in the early months of 2014 exerting further downward pressure on rental yields .
Although a member of the EU for more than a year, the expected and hoped for advantage for the Croatian economy has not materialised. Greater access to EU funds (estimated at EUR1.5bn per year) have so far not been translated into growth. The Croatian Central Bank has hence considered the business environment second lowest in the EU - only superior to Greece. The two countries have been the only EU member states with continuous shrinking economies since 2008.
Consumer spending continues to fall as uncertainty over the economic situation prevails. The real estate sector has hence suffered from stagnation. With few projects in the pipeline and little demand for office and industrial spaces due to the downturn in the economy and financial services sectors, supply and demand are relatively balanced with stabilising implications for commercial space prices. Due to the current problematic economic situation, however, overall real estate asking prices have continued to fall in the past months: by almost 10% in the first quarter of this year compared to the same time last year.
With lower demand for office space in Zagreb, our in-country sources note that old office spaces are increasingly turned into retail space due to respective higher demand. This has helped stabilising office rental rates as vacancy rates are gradually reduced. Falling retail sales over the past month could...
The Croatia Real Estate Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts of major construction projects in the residential and commercial markets, plus rental prices and yields in major cities. The report critically analyses the prospects for real estate within the broader economic and financial context - both domestic and global - via our econometrically-modelled and clearly explained banking and economic forecasts and follows this through to evaluate the implications for REITs.
BMI's Croatia Real Estate Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the real estate industry in Croatia.
- Benchmark BMI's independent real estate industry forecasts for Croatia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Croatian real estate market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Croatia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering real estate and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the real estate sector and within the broader political, financial, economic and business environment.
Overview of the real estate sector, including analysis of existing/planned real estate developments and emerging industry trends in the office, industrial and commercial sectors.
Features detailed city-level data and analysis on rental prices, yields, contract terms and real estate availability with separate chapters covering the office, retail and industrial sub-sectors.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historical data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for the domestic real estate industry and for the local and global finance industry. Indicators include:
Real Estate: Office, retail and industrial real estate yields for all major cities (%); short-term forecasts on minimum and maximum real estate rental prices by sub-sector (US$ per square metre, and local currency per square metre)
Construction: Industry value (US$bn); contribution to GDP (%); employment (`000); real growth (%)
Economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (US$bn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against US$)
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Real Estate Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (real estate vendors, construction companies and financial investors) in the regional real estate market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.