BMI View: Croatia's commercial real estate sector continues to struggle against the backdrop of an underperforming economy, and a weak export and consumer sector, which have combined to create a perfect storm as regards rental rate and yield growth over the past few years. While we expect these headwinds to alleviate slightly in 2014, we caution that the year is likely to be one of consolidation for the real estate sector, rather than growth.
The Croatia Q2 2014 Real Estate report examines the commercial office, retail, industrial and construction sectors and considers the impact of a dour outlook for the economy. With a focus on the three principal cities of Split, Zagreb and Zadar, the report covers the rental market's performance in terms of both rates and yields and supply and demand activity. On July 1 2013, Croatia became the EU's 28th member state. Not only will this have a positive impact upon stability in the region, ascension to the EU is also set to unlock billions of euros for investment in better connecting the bloc's newest member to the single market. Deputy Prime Minister Vesna Pusic has stated that Croatia will be the recipient of EUR10bn (US$13bn) up to 2020 to be spent on infrastructure and construction projects. In turn, this should start to re-invigorate the static real estate and construction pipeline that Croatia - as a reflection of the wider Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) as a region - has seen over recent years, although this process will be slow.
In spite of this relative optimism, the short-term outlook for commercial real estate looks moderate with rental rates expected to continue to underperform as they did for much of 2012-2013. EU membership aside, the real estate sector will find itself shackled by the same global problems which have hampered growth over the past two years: weak growth in China and the eurozone, an ongoing euro debt crisis and geo-political risk.
We expect rental rates to remain largely stagnant across office,...
The Croatia Real Estate Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts of major construction projects in the residential and commercial markets, plus rental prices and yields in major cities. The report critically analyses the prospects for real estate within the broader economic and financial context - both domestic and global - via our econometrically-modelled and clearly explained banking and economic forecasts and follows this through to evaluate the implications for REITs.
BMI's Croatia Real Estate Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the real estate industry in Croatia.
- Benchmark BMI's independent real estate industry forecasts for Croatia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Croatian real estate market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Croatia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering real estate and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the real estate sector and within the broader political, financial, economic and business environment.
Overview of the real estate sector, including analysis of existing/planned real estate developments and emerging industry trends in the office, industrial and commercial sectors.
Features detailed city-level data and analysis on rental prices, yields, contract terms and real estate availability with separate chapters covering the office, retail and industrial sub-sectors.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historical data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for the domestic real estate industry and for the local and global finance industry. Indicators include:
Real Estate: Office, retail and industrial real estate yields for all major cities (%); short-term forecasts on minimum and maximum real estate rental prices by sub-sector (US$ per square metre, and local currency per square metre)
Construction: Industry value (US$bn); contribution to GDP (%); employment (`000); real growth (%)
Economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (US$bn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against US$)
Business Environment Ratings
BMI's Real Estate Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (real estate vendors, construction companies and financial investors) in the regional real estate market.
The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.