Business Monitor International


Croatia Oil & Gas Report

Published 02 June 2014

  • 88 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Croatia Oil & Gas Report

BMI View:

Robust international interest in Croatia's recently opened licensing rounds underscores the improved outlook for the market. Increased offshore exploration activity holds upside risks to our outlook for both reserve s and production. However this upside risk will only begin to factor in toward the tail-end of our forecast period. Although offshore blocks appear to be prospective for both oil and gas, we cannot yet factor in any upside to our current forecast scenario. Therefore our core scenario is for continued decline in both oil and gas production, leaving Croatia with a higher import bill as domestic output continues to fall short of demand. We also note an uncertain outlook for the downstream sector with some reports that at least one or both of the country ' s two refineries may be closed by 2018, if not earlier, due to a lack of competiveness.

T he main trends and developments in Croatia's oil and gas sector are:

  • In spite of the recent exploration success by INA, which should slow the decline in domestic oil production over the medium term, there is little immediate prospect of major oil accumulations being found and developed. Based on our new forecast methodology, in 2014, crude and liquids oil production is forecast to come in at 19,450b/d, slipping to 17,170b/d by 2023.

  • In terms of natural gas, we estimate that gas output is set to continue to decline from its 2008 peak of 2.04bcm. Meanwhile, consumption is set to rise at a yearly rate of 4-6% over our 10-year forecast period from 2014 to 2023. This will lead to an increasing gas import requirement over the decade, with imports projected to increase from an estimate of 1.28bcm in 2013 to 3.56bcm in 2023.

  • Croatia is planning to construct its own LNG terminal in the northern Adriatic. Adrian LNG, a consortium of E.ON Ruhrgas, Total, OMV and Geoplin, will own and operate the terminal. The project has been delayed, with a final investment decision now expected in 2014 and...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Oil And Gas Reserves
11
Table: Croatia Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012 - 2017
11
Table: Croatia Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
12
Table: Croatia 2014 Licensing Round
14
Oil Supply And Demand
15
Table: Croatia Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
15
Table: Croatia Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
16
Gas Supply And Demand
18
Table: Croatia Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
18
Table: Croatia Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
19
Refining And Oil Products Trade
22
Table: Croatia Refining - Production And Consumption, 2012-2017
22
Table: Croatia Refining - Production and Consumption, 2018-2023
24
Revenues/Import Costs
25
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
25
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
26
Central And Eastern Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
27
Caspian Retains Upstream Ratings Lead
27
Russia: Large Resource Base, But Growing Technical Challenges
30
Regional Minnows Breaking In
31
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Rating
32
Little Change In Downstream Rankings
32
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Croatia - Risk/Reward Ratings
36
Market Overview
38
Croatia Energy Market Overview
38
Overview/State Role
39
Licensing And Regulation
39
Government Policy
40
International Energy Relations
40
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
40
Oil Refineries
40
Table: Refineries In Croatia
41
Filling Stations
41
Oil Pipelines
41
LNG Terminals
42
Gas Storage Facilities
42
Gas Pipelines
42
Competitive Landscape
43
Competitive Landscape Summary
43
Competitive Landscape Summary
43
Table: Key Players In Croatian Energy Sector
44
Table: Key Upstream Players
44
Table: Key Downstream Players
45
Company Profile
46
Industrija Nafte
46
Jadranski Naftovod
50
Eni
53
Other Summaries
55
Regional Overview
56
Central And Eastern Europe Overview
56
Trade Dynamic To Persist But Growth Moves East
58
Weaning Off Russian Oil And Gas Proving Difficult
59
Azerbaijan Main Beneficiary Of Eastern Europe's Russian Fatigue
61
Moving From Pipeline To LNG
63
South Stream Looking Weak
64
Black (Sea) Gold Could Provide Relief
64
Shale Gas Showdown
65
Global Industry Overview
68
Global Energy Market Overview
68
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
70
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
71
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
72
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
74
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
74
Appendix
77
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Appendix
77
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
77
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
78
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
78
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
79
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
80
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
81
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
81
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
82
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
83
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
84
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
84
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
85
Croatia - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
86
Table: Croatia Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2012-2017
86
Table: Croatia Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2018-2023
87
Table: Croatia Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2012-2017
88
Table: Croatia Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2018-2023
89
Table: Croatia Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2012-2017
90
Table: Croatia Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2018-2023
91
Glossary
93
Table: Glossary Of Terms
93
Methodology
95
Industry Forecast Methodology
95
Source
97
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
97
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
99
Table: Weighting
100

The Croatia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Croatia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Croatia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Croatian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Croatia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Croatian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Croatian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Croatia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc