Business Monitor International


Croatia Food & Drink Report

Published 04 February 2014

  • 137 pages
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$1,295.00
Croatia Food & Drink Report

BMI View: There are no immediate prospects for improvements in the outlook for consumer spending in Croatia in 2014, with consumption set to be hindered by high unemployment, weak bank lending, and low wage growth over the coming quarters. We therefore forecast Croatia's economy to grow by an anaemic 0.4% in 2014 with growth likely to be hindered by stagnant consumer spending and fiscal consolidation.

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

  • 2014 per capita food consumption = +1.7%; per capita forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2014 to 2018 = +2.5%.

  • 2014 alcoholic drinks value sales = +1.6%; forecast CAGR 2014 to 2018 = +2.7%.

  • 2014 soft drinks value sales = +3.7%; forecast CAGR 2014 to 2018 = +3.5%.

  • 2014 mass grocery retail sales = +2.9%; forecast CAGR 2014 to 2018 = +2.9%.

Key Company Trends

Agrokor Looks to Revise Mercator Offer : In early 2014 it was reported that Agrokor would like to lower its offer price for Mercator, valuing the 53% stake in the Slovenian retailer at EUR220mn, which is EUR20mn less than under the contract signed in summer 2013. As part of the lowered price, Agrokor would also secure a capital injection for Mercator. Meanwhile, Mladen Cerovac, Deputy Director of the Croatian Competition Agency (AZTN), has announced that Agrokor will have to substantially reduce its retail network in the country before it can get the regulatory approval to take over Mercator.

Atlantic Grupa Secures Unilever Distribution Rights : In late 2013 Atlantic Grupa took over the Croatian and Slovenian distribution of Unilever products. Atlantic Grupa will handle brands including Knorr, Bertolli and Hellmann's in the two countries. The contract, taking the annual sales on the two markets, is worth a total of EUR32mn, and the new partnership reaffirms Atlantic Grupa's status as a leading FMCG distributor in the region.

Key Risks To Outlook

Although we are already below-consensus in our outlook for Croatian growth in 2014, we caution...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Food
9
Drink
11
Mass Grocery Retail
13
Industry Forecast
15
Consumer Outlook
15
Food
17
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
18
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
19
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
21
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
22
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
23
Table: Snack Foods Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
24
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
28
Drink
31
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011- 2018
32
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
34
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
35
Mass Grocery Retail
35
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
37
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type (% of total)
38
Trade
38
Table: Food & Drink Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
39
Macroeconomic Forecasts
40
Table: Croatia - Economic Activity
44
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
45
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
45
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q214
47
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings Q214 (scores out of 10)
50
Croatia Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings
51
Market Overview
52
Food
52
Drink
59
Mass Grocery Retail
64
Table: Structure Of Croatia's Mass Retail Grocery Sector By Sales (HRKbn)
68
Industry Trends And Developments
69
Food
69
Drink
73
Mass Grocery Retail
76
Competitive Landscape
80
Table: Key Players In Croatia's Food Sector
80
Table: Key Players In Croatia's Drink Sector
81
Table: Key Players In Croatia's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
82
Company Profile
84
Atlantic Grupa
84
Franck
87
Podravka
89
Agrokor
92
Dukat
95
Kras
97
Adriatic Distillers
99
Carlsberg Croatia
101
Badel 1862
103
Spar Croatia
105
Lidl
108
Konzum
110
Mercator-H
113
Rewe (Billa)
115
Global Industry Overview
117
Table: Food And Drink Core Views
126
Demographic Forecast
127
Demographic Outlook
127
Table: Croatia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
128
Table: Croatia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
129
Table: Croatia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
130
Table: Croatia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
130
Glossary
131
Food & Drink
131
Mass Grocery Retail
131
Methodology
133
Industry Forecast Methodology
133
Sector-Specific Methodology
134
Sources
134
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
135
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
136
Table: Weighting
137

The Croatia Food & Drink Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Croatia Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Croatia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Croatia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Croatian food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Croatia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the retail market.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors, food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Food Forecasts

BMI's food chapter is divided into sections such as Meat, Fish, Confectionary, Dairy and Canned Foods, and provides insight into a market's food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

Industry Forecast Scenario - Historical data series and forecasts to end-2018 for growth of key indicators within a market's food industry. Including consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.

Industry Developments - A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.

Market Overview - An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food chapter, the drink section provides insight into the market's drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into a market's grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-201 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown for the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape & Profiles

Illustration of the industry via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. BMI analyses each company's market position, business strategies and investment potential.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc