BMI View: There are no immediate prospects for improvements in the outlook for consumer spending in Croatia in 2014, with consumption set to be hindered by high unemployment, weak bank lending, and low wage growth over the coming quarters. We therefore forecast Croatia's economy to grow by an anaemic 0.4% in 2014 with growth likely to be hindered by stagnant consumer spending and fiscal consolidation.
Headline Industry Data (local currency)
2014 per capita food consumption = +1.7%; per capita forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2014 to 2018 = +2.5%.
2014 alcoholic drinks value sales = +1.6%; forecast CAGR 2014 to 2018 = +2.7%.
2014 soft drinks value sales = +3.7%; forecast CAGR 2014 to 2018 = +3.5%.
2014 mass grocery retail sales = +2.9%; forecast CAGR 2014 to 2018 = +2.9%.
Key Company Trends
Agrokor Looks to Revise Mercator Offer : In early 2014 it was reported that Agrokor would like to lower its offer price for Mercator, valuing the 53% stake in the Slovenian retailer at EUR220mn, which is EUR20mn less than under the contract signed in summer 2013. As part of the lowered price, Agrokor would also secure a capital injection for Mercator. Meanwhile, Mladen Cerovac, Deputy Director of the Croatian Competition Agency (AZTN), has announced that Agrokor will have to substantially reduce its retail network in the country before it can get the regulatory approval to take over Mercator.
Atlantic Grupa Secures Unilever Distribution Rights : In late 2013 Atlantic Grupa took over the Croatian and Slovenian distribution of Unilever products. Atlantic Grupa will handle brands including Knorr, Bertolli and Hellmann's in the two countries. The contract, taking the annual sales on the two markets, is worth a total of EUR32mn, and the new partnership reaffirms Atlantic Grupa's status as a leading FMCG distributor in the region.
Key Risks To Outlook
Although we are already below-consensus in our outlook for Croatian growth in 2014, we caution...
The Croatia Food & Drink Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.
BMI's Croatia Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Croatia.
- Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Croatia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Croatian food and drink market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Croatia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the retail market.
Business Environment Ratings
BMI's Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors, food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers.
The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI's food chapter is divided into sections such as Meat, Fish, Confectionary, Dairy and Canned Foods, and provides insight into a market's food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:
Industry Forecast Scenario - Historical data series and forecasts to end-2018 for growth of key indicators within a market's food industry. Including consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.
Industry Developments - A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.
Market Overview - An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.
Segmented the same way as BMI's food chapter, the drink section provides insight into the market's drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.
Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts
Segmented the same way as BMI's food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into a market's grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-201 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown for the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.
Competitive Landscape & Profiles
Illustration of the industry via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. BMI analyses each company's market position, business strategies and investment potential.