Business Monitor International


Croatia Autos Report

Published 20 November 2013

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Croatia Autos Report

It appears as though 2013 will have proved another disappointing year for Croatian new passenger car sales, which were down by 15% as of end-October 2013, at just 24,158 units, according to figures released by local market research company Promocija Plus.

However, it appears to be a different story for light commercial vehicle (LCV) sales, which stood at 3,712 units as of end-September 2013, according to figures from Promocija Plus, cited by the CE Auto website in October 2013. On current sales trends, this would imply a total of around 4,950 LCVs sold in Croatia over 2013, which would represent growth of some 36.4% on 2012 sales figures.

Passenger car sales for the month of October 2013 were actually up by 10.0% y-o-y, at 2,194 units. This gives BMI some hope that the country may be able to stem the sales decline slightly from the 15.0% contraction as of end-October 2013. We are therefore targeting a decline of 12% for the full year, which will see new passenger car sales fall to 27,597 units.

Looking forward, BMI believes that 2014 may see something of a recovery in new vehicle sales. We are forecasting annual average growth of 5.0% in new passenger car sales over 2014-2017, with light commercial vehicle sales set to enjoy slightly stronger growth, in the order of around 8.0% per annum. However, this growth will not prove enough to offset the rapid decline of recent years and we do not envisage vehicle sales returning to anywhere near their 2008 peak over the forecast period to 2017.

To deal with the positives first, BMI's Country Risk team believes that private consumption - a key indicator of demand for new cars - will be able to add 0.6 percentage points (pp) to Croatian GDP growth in 2014, as improving consumer confidence, easing inflation and a robust tourism sector all lead to a modest recovery in disposable incomes.

Looking at recent economic indicators, retail sales recovered from a 6.7% y-o-y contraction in January, to growth of 2.6% y-o-y in August...

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
SWOT Analysis
6
Croatia Autos Industry SWOT
6
Croatia Political SWOT Analysis
6
Croatia Economic SWOT Analysis
7
Croatia Business Environment SWOT Analysis
7
Global Overview
8
UK Boosts Europe, But Favourites Still Outperform
8
Table: Passenger Car Sales 8M12
8
Incentive Boom For Japan, US Powers On
8
CEE Regional Overview
13
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
20
Poor Show From Western Europe Hurts Region's Score In BMI Ratings
20
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos In Europe
23
Industry Forecast Scenario
25
Table: Croatia Autos - Sales, 2010-2017
25
Table: Croatia Autos - Vehicle fleet, 2010-2017
25
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
27
Table: Croatia - Economic Activity, 2011-2016
29
Competitive Landscape
30
Passenger Cars
30
Table: Top 10 Manufacturers By Sales (Jan-Oct 2012)
31
Commercial Vehicles
31
Alternative Fuels
31
Company Monitor
33
Company Profiles
35
AutoZubak/PZ Auto
35
Renault Hrvatska
36
Country Snapshot
37
Table: Croatia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
38
Table: Croatia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
39
Table: Croatia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
40
Table: Croatia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
40
BMI Methodology
41
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
41
Sources
42

The Croatia Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Croatia Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Croatia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Croatia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Croatian automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Croatian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Croatia.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

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