Business Monitor International


Croatia Autos Report

Published 09 December 2014

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Croatia Autos Report

2014 has proved a very positive year for new passenger car sales within Croatia. Indeed, it has marked the first year since the financial crisis when a long period of pent-up demand for new vehicles within Croatia finally resulted in a strong sales performance by the local market. As such, this strong demand created in the automotive sector over the course of 2010 to 2013 - when sales remained at less than half their 2008 levels - outweighed our previous view that Croatia's passenger car market still had room to fall alongside falling private consumption and a sluggish macroeconomic backdrop.

Over the first 10 months of the year, passenger car (PC) sales were up by 24.4% year-on-year (y-o-y), at 30,064 units, according to figures from the European Auto Manufacturers Association (ACEA).

Commercial vehicle (CV) sales have also been powering ahead. 9M14 figures from ACEA show a total of 4,181 light commercial vehicles (LCVs) sold in country, up 13% y-o-y with a 712 medium and heavy commercial vehicles sold (up 64.8%), plus a further 89 buses (-9.2%), for a total of 4,982 units sold year-to-date, up 17.7% y-o-y.

Adding the 4,982 CV units to the 27,623 PCs sold over 9M14 makes for a total new vehicle market of 32,605 units. On current sales trends, this leaves the Croatian new vehicle sales market well placed to record its strongest annual performance since 2009.

However, despite this strong performance over 2014, BMI is yet to be convinced that it marks the start of a lasting turnaround in the fortunes of the Croatian autos sector. Looking forward, therefore, we retain a cautious stance towards the local sales market, for a number of reasons which we outline below.

To start with, BMI maintains that the 24% growth in PC sales for 2014 is not symptomatic of the Croatian automotive market's shift into a recovery phase. Rather, we believe that the current uptick is due to an extremely low base effect and pent up demand after years of disappointing sales. BMI's European...

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
SWOT Analysis
6
Croatia Autos Industry SWOT
6
Croatia Political SWOT Analysis
6
Croatia Economic SWOT Analysis
7
Croatia Business Environment SWOT Analysis
7
Global Overview
8
UK Boosts Europe, But Favourites Still Outperform
8
Table: Passenger Car Sales 8M12
8
Incentive Boom For Japan, US Powers On
8
CEE Regional Overview
13
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
20
Poor Show From Western Europe Hurts Region's Score In BMI Ratings
20
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos In Europe
23
Industry Forecast Scenario
25
Table: Croatia Autos - Sales, 2010-2017
25
Table: Croatia Autos - Vehicle fleet, 2010-2017
25
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
27
Table: Croatia - Economic Activity, 2011-2016
29
Competitive Landscape
30
Passenger Cars
30
Table: Top 10 Manufacturers By Sales (Jan-Oct 2012)
31
Commercial Vehicles
31
Alternative Fuels
31
Company Monitor
33
Company Profiles
35
AutoZubak/PZ Auto
35
Renault Hrvatska
36
Country Snapshot
37
Table: Croatia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
38
Table: Croatia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
39
Table: Croatia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
40
Table: Croatia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
40
BMI Methodology
41
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
41
Sources
42

The Croatia Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Croatia Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Croatia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Croatia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Croatian automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Croatian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Croatia.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.

BMI’s Autos Risk Reward index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company  developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country  investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Sources

The Autos Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc