Pub date: 17 May 2012 Global
Corporate Financing Week provides must-read updates and analysis on global M&A activity, IPOs, privatizations and equity and debt financing strategies, with must-read updates and analysis on all the... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Europe / Albania Business Forecast Report
Core Views Albania's relatively low level of trade and financial integration with Western Europe will not protect its economy from the marked deterioration that has occurred in eurozone. Indeed, th... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Africa / Libya Business Forecast Report
Concessions Defusing Tension Although tensions in other Arab states have led to the ousters of longtime leaders and civil wars, we do not expect social discontent to reach the same scale in Alger... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Africa / Angola Business Forecast Report
Core Views D riven by strong investment in its promising subsalt oil reserves and by a boom in exports from its already developed offshore oil plays, Angola is set to become one of the world's fast... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Latin America / Argentina Business Forecast Report
Core Views Although growth opportunities exist across a range of consumeroriented sectors, Argentina's investment environment will continue to lag behind that of other economies in the region as co... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Asia / Australia Business Forecast Report
Core Views We maintain our bearish view on the Australian economy despite improved economic growth numbers in Q211. Headline real GDP for the quarter increased by a seasonally adjusted 1.2% quarter... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Europe / Austria Business Forecast Report
Core Views After a robust showing in 2011, with growth at 3.1%, we forecast the Austrian economy to post significantly slower growth in 2012. We forecast real GDP growth at a mere 0.5% due to the w... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Middle East / Bahrain Business Forecast Report
Core Views E levated oil prices, an increase in government spending and financial support from Saudi Arabia should help bolster growth though 2012. That said, a weak outlook for the domestic touris... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Asia / Bangladesh Business Forecast Report
Core Views Public unrest owing to heightened tensions between the ruling Awami League (AL) and its main opposition, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), will unlikely subside as both sides conti... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Europe / Belarus Business Forecast Report
Core Views Belarus will avoid recession this year owing to Russian financial support and positive trade dynamics. However, the country's mediumterm trajectory is beset by sizeable risks. While infl... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Europe / Belgium Business Forecast Report
Core Views Belgium has enjoyed a robust recovery following the global financial crisis but is heavily exposed to turmoil in the eurozone. A particular concern for the Belgian economy is its nationa... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Europe / Bosnia-Herzegovina Business Forecast Report
Core Views T he economy is showing signs of recovery, driven in large part by a resurgence in exports. T he ongoing political crisis is pushing back reforms and could start to weigh on investor co... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Africa / Botswana Business Forecast Report
Core Views We are forecasting real GDP growth in Botswana of 4.2% in 2012 and 5.4% in 2013. The solid outlook is driven by growing interest in the country's mining sector and the investment in infr... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Latin America / Brazil Business Forecast Report
Core Views Blessed with favourable demographics, a large consumer base and a wealth of natural resources, Brazil offers some of the most exciting investment opportunities globally. With plenty of ... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Europe / Bulgaria Business Forecast Report
Core Views We expect Bulgaria's economic growth to be weighed down by significantly weaker aggregate demand in the eurozone and persistent concerns over the eurozone debt crisis. We believe that th... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Asia / Cambodia Business Forecast Report
Critical Turning Point Looming For Myanmar By-elections planned for April 1 will be a crucial litmus test for the progress of recent reforms in Myanmar. As the de facto successor of the military j... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Africa / Cameroon Business Forecast Report
Core Views R eal GDP growth in Cameroon will climb above the 3.5% long-run trend for the next few years on the back of investment in several new mega-projects and increased oil production. Politic... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 North America / Canada Business Forecast Report
Core Views The Canadian economy faces major external headwinds from the US, Europe and, increasingly, China. However, Canada will likely avoid falling into recession. Growth drivers will shift away... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Europe / Georgia Business Forecast Report
Core Views Despite plenty of room for Armenia's economy to recover following one of the most severe recessions in the world in 2009, we see few signs to indicate that the higher-than-expected growt... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Global / Latin America Business Forecast Report
Core Views Central America as a region will remain heavily dependent on the performance of developed-state economies, particularly the US, which remains a major source remittance flows and demand f... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Latin America / Chile Business Forecast Report
Core Views Robust economic growth will continue to be driven primarily by strong private consumption levels, with consumer-focused industries such as telecoms, financials and autos to benefit as a ... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Asia / China Business Forecast Report
Core Views China's real GDP came in at 8.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) and 7.2% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) on a seasonally adjusted basis in Q112, much weaker than consensus expectations. Unlike the situ... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Latin America / Colombia Business Forecast Report
Core Views Broadly in line with consensus, we believe Colombia will become a regional outperformer in 2012. Private consumption will drive the majority of growth, although gross fixed capital form... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Africa / Cote d`Ivoire Business Forecast Report
Core Views Not only is real GDP growth expected to surge in 2012 as the economy recovers from the 2011 crisis, but long-term growth is likely to benefit from a 'unification dividend'. We expect ann... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Europe / Croatia Business Forecast Report
Core Views The outlook for Croatia's economy in 2012 remains dour and we forecast a full-year contraction of 1.5% in real terms. A combination of dampened household consumption and the start of fis... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Europe / Cyprus Business Forecast Report
Core Views President Demetris Christofias faces a crucial few months as his government seeks a way out of a budget crisis and looks to resolve the ongoing ethnic conflict dividing the island. A slu... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Europe / Czech Republic Business Forecast Report
Core Views We expect weakened external demand to hit the Czech Republic's economic growth hard in 2012. The Czech economy remains highly dependent on exports and investments for economic growth, bo... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Africa / Congo, Dem. Rep. Business Forecast Report
Core Views I nterest in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC )'s mining sector has exploded over recent years, and we are expecting the sector to grow by an annual average of 13.7% through 2015. I... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Europe / Denmark Business Forecast Report
Core Views O wing to a deteriorating external environment as well as homegrown problems in the banking and housing sectors, Denmark’s economic outlook has worsened signficantly in recent months. Wh... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Caribbean / Guyana Business Forecast Report
Core Views Broadly in line with consensus, we expect the East Caribbean region to continue its economic recovery in 2012, although growth in the least diversified economies will remain weak, and al... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Africa / Egypt Business Forecast Report
Core Views Following 2011’s political crisis, our forecasts see trend growth in Egypt settling at a lower rate over the coming five years as the political transition from authoritarian rule to comp... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Europe / Estonia Business Forecast Report
Core Views Estonia's economic growth will slow to 2.7% in 2012 in real GDP terms, from 7.6% in 2011. While this remains the strongest economic growth figure in the eurozone, the economy is not immu... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Africa / Ethiopia Business Forecast Report
Core Views We are forecasting Ethiopian real GDP growth of 7.8% in 2012 and 7.2% in 2013, a moderation from the estimated 8.8% expansion in 2011. The overall outlook remains stellar, with the econo... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Europe / Finland Business Forecast Report
Core Views As we have previously highlighted, growth will slow in 2012 as wider eurozone growth softens and positive base effects fully recede. We have made further cuts to our Finland growth forec... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Europe / France Business Forecast Report
Core Views: France's economy is showing signs of a sharp economic slowdown in light of the deteriorating global macroeconomic backdrop, and while a return to recessionary conditions remains outside... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Africa / Togo Business Forecast Report
Ivoirien Recovery Buoys The Region I n Côte d’Ivoire, we are expecting strong growth in 2012 as the country recovers from the post-electoral violence in early 2011. After a 5.4% contraction in 2011... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Europe / Germany Business Forecast Report
Core Views Germany's manufacturing base will remain weighed down by weak foreign orders, while the fragility surrounding the response to the eurozone debt crisis means business sentiment could take... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Africa / Ghana Business Forecast Report
Core Views T he Ghanaian economy will enjoy stellar economic growth over the medium term, propelled by the nascent oil and gas sector. Ghana’s abundant natural resources, fast growth trajectory and... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Europe / Greece Business Forecast Report
Core Views The Greek economy will remain mired in depression through 2012 as deep fiscal retrenchment and internal devaluation take a damaging toll. The prospect of further spending cuts and tax h... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Asia / Hong Kong Business Forecast Report
Core Views We have revised our 2012 growth forecast downwards and expect real GDP growth to slow from 5.0% to 2.2%, compared with our previous estimate of 3.0%. This falls within the government's g... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Europe / Hungary Business Forecast Report
Core Views We still expect the Hungarian economy to contract in real GDP terms in 2012 despite the strong Q411 growth figure. All areas of the economy apart from the external sector will act as a d... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Europe / Iceland Business Forecast Report
Core Views We remain generally optimistic that Iceland's economy can pull itself out of its present malaise. However, there will be no return to the fast growth seen during the pre-crisis period. ... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Asia / India Business Forecast Report
Core Views The Indian National Congress (INC) lost heavily in the country's recent state elections. The ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA), led by the INC, now has reduced political clout. Th... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Asia / Indonesia Business Forecast Report
Core Views I ndonesia is likely to continue to outperform its peers in 2012, as we are pencilling in strong 5.8% growth following 6.5% growth in 2011. T he archipelago's consumption-driven economy ... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Middle East / Iran Business Forecast Report
Core Views Despite heightened rhetoric, we do not believe Iran's threats to close the Strait of Hormuz are credible. Any cut-off in oil export receipts would hit the economy hard, and the governmen... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Middle East / Iraq Business Forecast Report
Core Views Despite the successful formation of a government in December 2010, we expect political progress to remain slow and stability to remain fragile. A broken power-sharing agreement, withdraw... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Europe / Ireland Business Forecast Report
Core Views Ireland's economy will contract in 2012 as fiscal austerity, household deleveraging and a recession in Europe weigh on activity. We forecast real GDP to contract by 0.5% in 2012, followi... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Middle East / Israel Business Forecast Report
Core Views Elevated risks of instability in Israel's neighbours, including Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and the West Bank and Gaza, have raised political risks, and investors' risk appetite may be tempe... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Europe / Italy Business Forecast Report
Core Views The new technocratic government led by Mario Monti will embark on a last-ditch attempt to restructure the economy and consolidate the country's public finances. Measures that are likely ... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Asia / Japan Business Forecast Report
Core Views The Japanese economy contracted an estimated 0.7% in 2011, and we expect growth to continue to come under threat as volatility in the external environment translates to swings in domesti... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Middle East / Jordan Business Forecast Report
Core Views We maintain that Jordan's long-term political outlook is among the most stable in the region owing to a series of political and economic reforms undertaken by the government in recent ye... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Europe / Uzbekistan Business Forecast Report
Core Views Kazakhstan will continue to enjoy robust economic growth through 2011 and 2012, underpinned by ongoing development of the nation’s vast natural resource base. We forecast real economic g... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Africa / Kenya Business Forecast Report
Core Views: We believe that Kenyan economic activity will pick up over the course of 2012 as inflation falls and monetary policy is eased. We are forecasting full-year real GDP growth of 4.9%, up f... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Middle East / Kuwait Business Forecast Report
Core Views We retain our broadly sanguine outlook on Kuwait's economic prospects for 2012. Elevated global hydrocarbon prices will allow the government to keep fiscal spending high, driving domesti... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Europe / Latvia Business Forecast Report
Core Views Following a snap election in September 2011 which saw a threeparty centre-right coalition come to power, we expect the Latvian government to remain stable in 2012. However, we highlight ... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Middle East / Syria Business Forecast Report
Core Views Although we expect growth to accelerate slightly in 2012, we stress that the pace of economic expansion will remain somewhat anaemic. The ongoing crisis in Syria is likely to keep touris... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Europe / Lithuania Business Forecast Report
Core Views Growing macroeconomic headwinds in Europe and the government's firm adherence to additional fiscal consolidation will see the Lithuanian economy come to a standstill in 2012. The already... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Europe / Macedonia Business Forecast Report
Core Views We believe that a full resolution to the name dispute with Greece is highly unlikely in the foreseeable future. The government is hoping for acceptance into NATO this year and a breakthr... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Asia / Malaysia Business Forecast Report
Core Views Latest indicators continue to point towards a slowdown in economic activity over the coming months, supporting our view for Malaysia to miss the consensus forecast of 4.1% real GDP growt... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Africa / Mauritius Business Forecast Report
Core Views D espite a sluggish global growth outlook weighing on final consumption and private investment into Mauritius, the government appear committed in implementing the five-year Public Sector... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Latin America / Mexico Business Forecast Report
Core Views We have turned cautiously optimistic regarding Mexico's growth story, bumping up our average real GDP growth forecast for 2012-2021 from 2.7% to 3.2%. This view is underpinned by our exp... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Europe / Mongolia Business Forecast Report
Core Views Mongolia’s current account deficit is alarmingly high on account of the country’s capital- and energy-intensive mining sector, as well as the growing appetite for foreign service imports... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Africa / Morocco Business Forecast Report
Core Views Despite not possessing hydrocarbon wealth, the economy will remain a relative outperformer in North Africa over the medium term. On top of a very low base, strong interest from foreign i... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Africa / Mozambique Business Forecast Report
Core Views We expect the rebalancing of the Mozambican economy away from private consumption and towards exports to continue over the years ahead as extractive industries gain greater importance, w... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Africa / Namibia Business Forecast Report
Core Views Growth in 2012 is expected to pick up from 2011 as agricultural output hampered by flooding recovers and mining production expands. Government expenditures will continue to be a major dr... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Europe / Netherlands Business Forecast Report
Core Views T he Dutch economy's growth outlook is set to seriously deteriorate in the coming quarters, as the eurozone sovereign debt crisis massively weighs on economic activity and confidence lev... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Asia / New Zealand Business Forecast Report
Core Views With households still in the midst of deleveraging and weakening external conditions, New Zealand's real GDP growth is likely to remain very weak in 2012, and our 1.7% forecast is below ... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Africa / Nigeria Business Forecast Report
Core Views We expect robust growth in the years ahead, bolstered primarily by the non-oil sectors, which will benefit from burgeoning domestic demand. Security risks, which were on the rise at the... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Europe / Norway Business Forecast Report
Core Views N orway’s economy is heavily exposed to the ongoing and rapidly deepening debt crisis in the eurozone, which makes up the singlelargest market for Norwegian exports, particularly from th... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Middle East / Yemen Business Forecast Report
Core Views Government spending will be the primary driver of Oman's growth momentum over the medium term. With oil prices set to remain high throughout the year, and room in the government's budget... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Asia / Pakistan Business Forecast Report
Core Views Looking ahead at the next fiscal year (FY2012/13, July-June), we expect a recovery in economic growth as domestic demand improves on the back of easing domestic macroeconomic conditions ... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Latin America / Peru Business Forecast Report
Core Views Peruvian growth will be among the strongest in Latin America over the medium term. Our real GDP growth forecasts are in line with consensus, and we believe the central bank will remain c... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Asia / Philippines Business Forecast Report
Core Views Following 2011's disappointing GDP growth of 3.7%, we estimate that the Philippine economy will bounce back only incrementally, with 3.9% growth forecast for 2012. Weak external demand a... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Europe / Poland Business Forecast Report
Core Views N otwithstanding an increasingly grim outlook for global growth in 2012, we maintain our relatively constructive view on the Polish economy. Underlying our 3.5% real GDP growth forecast ... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Europe / Portugal Business Forecast Report
Core Views Portugal is in the midst of a deep recession that will last until at least 2013. We do not see substantially higher growth beyond this. We are expecting contractions in real GDP of 3.6% ... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Middle East / Qatar Business Forecast Report
Core Views Qatar's short-term political risk profile remains among the most stable in the region. Despite enjoying little in the way of democratic freedom, Qataris benefit from massive hydrocarbon ... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Europe / Romania Business Forecast Report
Core Views Romania's return to growth has so far been driven primarily by external demand for Romanian exports. As the eurozone sovereign debt crisis weighs heavily on this previous growth driver, ... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Europe / Russia Business Forecast Report
Core Views With so far little progress in containing the eurozone debt crisis, we are growing increasingly concerned about contagion spreading towards the wider banking sector in the region, and no... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Africa / Rwanda Business Forecast Report
Core Views We are forecasting economic expansion of 7.7% in 2012 and 7.6% in 2013 in Rwanda as the country benefits from a vibrant investment outlook and solid performance in final consumption. We ... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Middle East / Saudi Arabia Business Forecast Report
Core Views T he announcement in early 2011 by Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah of a further US $110bn in economic stimulus measures highlights the government’s growing concerns about the need to shore ... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Europe / Serbia Business Forecast Report
Core Views Regardless of who wins the May 6 parliamentary and presidential elections, the next government will have to contend with a large and widening fiscal deficit. We expect the next administr... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Asia / Singapore Business Forecast Report
Core Views T he labour market remains tight in Singapore, with the unemployment rate dropping to 2.0% in Q311. Still, as Singapore’s economic growth looks set to stall over the coming quarters, we ... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Europe / Slovakia Business Forecast Report
Core Views We continue to expect Slovakia’s economy to expand by 2.8% in real terms in 2011, largely driven by a continued strong export performance. We expect household consumption to recover marg... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Europe / Slovenia Business Forecast Report
Core Views The Slovenian economy faces myriad pressures over the medium term, namely a weak and still deleveraging private sector, less supportive trade dynamics on the back of the slowdown in the ... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Africa / South Africa Business Forecast Report
Core Views We believe the South African economy will continue its uneven recovery over the medium term, with real GDP growth forecast to slow to 2.7% in 2012 from 3.1% in 2011. Although the consume... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Asia / South Korea Business Forecast Report
Core Views We expect South Korea's real GDP growth to slow to a belowconsensus 1.9% in 2012. China has recently lowered its GDP growth forecast, and our core view of a eurozone recession remains fi... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Europe / Spain Business Forecast Report
Core Views The medium-term economic outlook for Spain has worsened considerably in recent months. While the domestic economy remains beset by high unemployment, falling house prices and severe fisc... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Asia / Sri Lanka Business Forecast Report
Core Views We expect real GDP growth to moderate in 2011 to 7.5%, from 8.0% in 2010. We caution that while the overall economy appears healthy, overheating risks continue to mount. The growing risk... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Africa / South Sudan Business Forecast Report
Core Views Rising security concerns, both domestically amid various feuding factions and internationally between Sudan and South Sudan, will remain a huge challenge for the foreseeable future, adve... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Europe / Sweden Business Forecast Report
Core Views Sweden's status as an open trade-oriented economy means that the ongoing European economic crisis poses significant downside risks to Swedish growth in 2012. Sweden is among the best po... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Europe / Switzerland Business Forecast Report
Core Views We have revised our 2012 forecast for Swiss real GDP growth. Following estimated 2011 growth of 1.9%, our significantly bleaker outlook for the global economy means we now forecast headl... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Asia / Taiwan Business Forecast Report
Core Views Our forecast for Taiwan’s 2011 and 2012 real GDP growth is 3.6% and 3.4% respectively, which falls below the government’s projection of 4.6% and 4.4% and consensus expectations of 4.9% a... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Africa / Tanzania Business Forecast Report
Core Views We believe that real GDP growth in Tanzania will slow to 5.5% in 2012, from an estimated 6.2% in 2011, as high inflation and weakness in the tourism sector weigh on our outlook. We belie... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Asia / Thailand Business Forecast Report
Core Views We believe that economic recovery in Thailand will remain relatively subdued in 2012 as a return to full production for the manufacturing sector is likely to come only in H212. Moreover,... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Caribbean / Trinidad & Tobago Business Forecast Report
Core Views We maintain our interest rate forecast for an additional 25 basis points of cuts in 2011, bringing the benchmark repo rate to 2.75%, due to a weak GDP growth outlook, tepid domestic dema... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Africa / Tunisia Business Forecast Report
Core Views We foresee a slightly turbulent but successful transition following elections for a National Constituent Assembly in October 2011, and we expect to see a permanent government in place by... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Europe / Turkey Business Forecast Report
Core Views We reiterate that Turkey's economy is set to undergo a sharp slowdown in 2012. A combination of weak external activity, poor economic confidence, tighter domestic policy, precarious bala... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Africa / Uganda Business Forecast Report
Core Views Growth is expected to be robust, although below potential owing to a variety of domestic and external constraints, including inflation, investor uncertainty and lack of clarity in the oi... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Europe / Ukraine Business Forecast Report
Core Views Ukraine's economic recovery lost some momentum heading into the second quarter of 2011 and a deteriorating global growth outlook bodes poorly for the highly trade-integrated economy. We... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Middle East / United Arab Emirates Business Forecast Report
Core Views The UAE's reputation as a 'safe haven' in a volatile region will continue to serve the economy well, although growth will begin to suffer in early 2012 as global headwinds pick up. Dele... Read More