Business Monitor International


Cote d'Ivoire Country Risk Report

Published 28 January 2015 | Quarterly

  • 38 pages
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$1,195.00
Cote d'Ivoire Country Risk Report

Core Views:

  • Despite a moderate downward revision to our 2015 real GDP growth forecast for Côte d'Ivoire, at 8.6% it is still one of the fastest-growing economies in Sub-Saharan Africa. Private consumption and gross fixed capital investment will be the major drivers of this expansion.

  • Bipartisan support will ensure incumbent President Allassane Outtara's victory in October elections, and with it policy continuity. However, although we do not expect a return to civil war in 2015,there are a number of challenges to security, including striking soldiers and high-profile trials.

  • Côte d'Ivoire's current account deficit will widen in 2015 as it returns to trend level. The deficit narrowed in 2014 thanks to a surge in cocoa production, but we believe that the effect of this have petered out. Imports will rise thanks to the development of new industries.

  • Côte d'Ivoire's budget deficit will widen to 3.3% of GDP in 2015 as the government drives forward with infrastructure projects. This is no cause for concern, however, as the expenditure will drive future growth and is well covered by international donor funds and borrowing.

  • Major Forecast Changes:

  • Real GDP growth estimate/forecast revised from 9.1% in 2014 and 8.8% in 2015 to 8.4% and 8.6% respectively.

  • Key Risks To Outlook:

  • Our broad outlook is dependent on the maintenance of a stable political situation that allows for significant levels of foreign investment and the implementation of the government's reform and development plans. Such stability is not a certainty, however, and for this reason ethnic and political tensions pose the key risk to the country's economic prospects.

  • At the time of writing there had been no reported cases of Ebola in Côte d'Ivoire but its shared, poorly controlled borders with Guinea and Liberia - two of the three worst affected countries (Sierra Leone being the other) - clearly put it at risk.

  • The economy's reliance on cocoa exports means that poor weather could...

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Index
7
Domestic Politics
8
Political Fault Lines Will Pose Risk To Security
8
Bipartisan support will ensure incumbent President Alassane Ouattara's victory in October elections, and with it policy continuity
However, although we do not expect a return to civil war in 2015, there are a number of challenges to security
Table: Political Overview
8
Long-Term Political Outlook
9
Post-Conflict Challenges To Linger
9
While the establishment of a cohesive national government has set the stage for an impressive economic recovery in C-te d'Ivoire,
While the establishment of a cohesive national government has set the stage for an impressive economic recovery in C-te d'Ivoire,
the country's political system remains brittle and ethnic tensions are easily inflamed
In our core scenario, BMI predicts that Alassane
Ouattara's government will be only partially successful in addressing the country's political, security, and social challenges and that
Ouattara's government will be only partially successful in addressing the country's political, security, and social challenges and that
tensions will remain high over the coming years
A more stable outcome is possible, though highly unlikely, while we ascribe a 10-20%
probability to a repeat of the 2010-2011 political crisis between now and 2020
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
13
SWOT Analysis
13
BMI Economic Risk Index
13
Economic Activity
14
Investment And Private Consumption To Drive Robust Real GDP Growth
14
Despite a moderate downward revision to our 2015 real GDP growth forecast for C-te d'Ivoire, at 8
6% it is still one of the fastestgrowing
economies in Sub-Saharan Africa
Private consumption and gross fixed capital investment will be the major drivers of this
expansion
TABLE: Economic Activit y
14
Fiscal Policy
15
Budget Deficit Will Widen In 2015
15
C-te d'Ivoire's budget deficit will widen to 3
3% of GDP in 2015 as the government drives forward with its infrastructure spending
programme
The deficit is no cause for concern, however, as the expenditure will drive future growth and is well covered by international
donor funds and borrowing
TABLE: Fiscal Polic y
16
Monetary Policy
17
Demand-Pull Factors Will Keep Inflation Positive
17
Inflation in C-te d'Ivoire will trend upwards through the next 12 months
Even so, price growth in the West African country will be among
the lowest in Sub-Saharan Africa, and it will remain well short of the regional central bank's inflation target of 3
TABLE: Monetary Policy
17
Balance Of Payments
18
Current Account Will Widen But Remain Sustainable
18
C-te d'Ivoire's current account deficit will widen in 2015 as it returns to trend level
The deficit narrowed in 2014 thanks to a surge in
cocoa production, but we believe that the effect of this have petered out
TABLE: Curent Acount
19
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
21
The Ivorian Economy To 2024
21
A Bright Decade Ahead, But Fragilities To Persist
21
While growth over the next 10 years is expected to improve on the last decade, political uncertainty continues to exert a downward pull
While growth over the next 10 years is expected to improve on the last decade, political uncertainty continues to exert a downward pull
on the country's potential
In our view, high poverty levels and a frail business environment will represent the main obstacles to growth
over the longer term
TABLE: Long-Term Macroeco nomic Forecasts
21
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
23
SWOT Analysis
23
Operational Risk Index
23
Operational Risk
24
TABLE: Operational Risk
24
Availability Of Labour
26
TABLE: Sub -Sahara n Africa - Availability Of Labour Risk
26
TABLE: Top 10 Source Countries For Migrant Workers
28
Crime Risk
29
TABLE: Sub -Saharan Africa - Crime Risk
30
Chapter 5: BMI Global Assumptions
33
Global Outlook
33
New Era For Oil
33
Table : Global Assumptions
33
Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, %
34
Table : BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
34
Table : Emerging Markets , Real GDP Growth , %
35

The Cote d'Ivoire Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in The Cote d'Ivoire and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of The Cote d'Ivoire's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of The Cote d'Ivoire's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise The Cote d'Ivoire's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in The Cote d'Ivoire, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Cote d'Ivoire Country Risk Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes three major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook and Business Environment.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Ivorian economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for The Cote d'Ivoire through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Cote d'Ivoire Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for The Cote d'Ivoire and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on The Cote d'Ivoire, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in The Cote d'Ivoire over the next 5-years?

BMI's The Cote d'Ivoire country Risk Ratings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the  Ivorian Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing The Cote d'Ivoire.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for The Cote d'Ivoire's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark The Cote d'Ivoire's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Business Environment

Business Environment Risk Ratings with SWOT Analysis - Business environment Risk Ratings for The Cote d'Ivoire, benchmarked against ratings for regional neighbours.

Country Competitiveness - Competitiveness of The Cote d'Ivoire's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability, compared with regional neighbours.

Business Environment Contents

  • Domestic Environment - Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - Analysis of foreign investment regime; foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors.
  • Foreign Trade - Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas.

Key Benefits

  • Assess your company's evolving exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI's in-depth analysis of the legal and regulatory business environment.
  • Understand your market's comparative strengths and weaknesses in the key areas of commercial infrastructure and business institutions, using BMI's proprietary global Business Environment Risk Ratings.

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Testimonials

The sections that I find most interesting and useful are the macroeconomic data and forecasts for the country, top export destinations and economic activity. The indicators/analysis of these areas helps us orient our thinking, our assumptions and, consequently, our decisions in the commercial area.

Country Manager, DHL Express