Business Monitor International

Cote d'Ivoire Business Forecast Report

Published 20 October 2014

  • 37 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
Cote d'Ivoire Business Forecast Report

Core Views:

  • We remain bullish on the growth prospects for the Ivorian economy, forecasting that real GDP growth will average 8.0% annually over the next five years. However, with contentious elections in October 2015 and the continued threat posed by Ebola, risks to growth over the near term are weighted firmly to the downside.

  • President Alassane Ouattara's already strong chances of securing a second term have increased following the announcement that the Parti Démocratiques de la Côte d'Ivoire (PDCI) - part of the ruling coalition with Ouattara's Rassemblement des Républicains (RDR)  - will back the president in the October 2015 general elections. 

  • Côte d'Ivoire's return to political stability in 2012 has had a restorative effect on the country's public finances and over the next five years we expect it to run a moderate, but sustainable fiscal deficit in the region of 2.0-3.0% of GDP. 

  • Headline inflation in Côte d'Ivoire will remain low by sub-Saharan African standards over the next six-to-twelve months on the back of subdued food prices and a stable currency. These factors will see inflation in the West African country continue to average below the regional central bank's 3.0% target level.

Major Forecast Changes:

  • No major forecast changes

Key Risks To Outlook:

  • Our broad outlook is dependent on the maintenance of a stable political situation that allows for significant levels of foreign investment and the implementation of the government's reform and development plans. Such stability is not a certainty, however, and for this reason ethnic and political tensions pose the key risk to the country's economic prospects.

  • At the time of writing there had been no reported cases of Ebola in Côte d'Ivoire but its shared, poorly controlled borders with Guinea and Liberia - two of the three worst affected countries (Sierra Leone being the other) - clearly put it at risk. 

  • The economy's reliance on cocoa exports means that poor weather...

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks To Outlook
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
President's Bipartisan Backing A Boost For Continuity
TABLE: Political Overview
Long-Term Political Outlook
Post-Conflict Challenges To Linger
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Activity
Election, Ebola Pose Risks To Growth In 2015
TABLE: Eco nomic Acti vit y
Balance Of Payments
Deteriorating Trade Balance To Drive Widening Of C/A Deficit
TABLE: Current Account
Monetary Policy
Inflation To Inch Higher
TABLE: Monetar y Polic y
Fiscal Policy
Fiscal Stability To Prevail, Despite Election Pressures
TABLE: Fiscal Policy
Chapter 3:10-Year Forecast
The Ivorian Economy To 2023
A Bright Decade Ahead, But Fragilities To Persist
TABLE: Long-Term Macroeco nomic Forecasts
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
Operational Risk Index
Operational Risk
TABLE: Operational Risk
Transport Network
TABLE: Transport Network Risk
Economic Openness
TABLE: Eco nomic Ope nnes
TABLE: Top 5 Products Imported
TABLE: Top 5 Trade Partners Product Exports
Chapter 5: BMI Global Assumptions
Global Outlook
Big Emerging Market Revisions
Table : Global Assumptions
Table : Developed States , Real GDP Growth, %
Table : Emerging Markets , Real GDP Growth , %

The Cote d'Ivoire Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in The Cote d'Ivoire and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of The Cote d'Ivoire's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of The Cote d'Ivoire's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise The Cote d'Ivoire's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in The Cote d'Ivoire, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Cote d'Ivoire Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes three major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook and Business Environment.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Ivorian economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for The Cote d'Ivoire through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Cote d'Ivoire Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:


  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for The Cote d'Ivoire and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on The Cote d'Ivoire, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in The Cote d'Ivoire over the next 5-years?

BMI's The Cote d'Ivoire country Risk Ratings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the  Ivorian Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing The Cote d'Ivoire.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for The Cote d'Ivoire's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark The Cote d'Ivoire's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Business Environment

Business Environment Risk Ratings with SWOT Analysis - Business environment Risk Ratings for The Cote d'Ivoire, benchmarked against ratings for regional neighbours.

Country Competitiveness - Competitiveness of The Cote d'Ivoire's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability, compared with regional neighbours.

Business Environment Contents

  • Domestic Environment - Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - Analysis of foreign investment regime; foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors.
  • Foreign Trade - Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas.

Key Benefits

  • Assess your company's evolving exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI's in-depth analysis of the legal and regulatory business environment.
  • Understand your market's comparative strengths and weaknesses in the key areas of commercial infrastructure and business institutions, using BMI's proprietary global Business Environment Risk Ratings.

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The sections that I find most interesting and useful are the macroeconomic data and forecasts for the country, top export destinations and economic activity. The indicators/analysis of these areas helps us orient our thinking, our assumptions and, consequently, our decisions in the commercial area.

Country Manager, DHL Express