Business Monitor International


Cote d'Ivoire Business Forecast Report

Published 29 January 2014

  • 37 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,195.00
Cote d'Ivoire Business Forecast Report

Core Views:

  • We predict that Côte d'Ivoire will be among the fastest growing economies in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2014 and we expect this strong growth momentum to be maintained over the medium term. This positive outlook is underpinned by a combination of sustained strong levels of development spending by the Ivorian government, intensifying foreign investment into new industries, stable inflation and rising consumer spending levels.

  • Despite the more conciliatory rhetoric espoused by the Ivorian government and the Front Populaire Ivoirien, the main opposition party, in late 2013, recent developments reinforce our view that meaningful political rapprochement in Côte d'Ivoire will remain elusive over the near term at least.

  • A rapidly expanding economy, improvements to revenue collection, and prudent recurrent spending plans will allow the Ivorian government to keep capital spending levels high without jeopardising fiscal stability. We forecast a fiscal deficit worth 3.2% of GDP in 2014 and 2.6% in 2015.

Major Forecast Changes:

  • Recently published IMF data containing revisions to Côte d'Ivoire's historical budget data have prompted some modest adjustments to our fiscal forecasts. We are now forecasting a budget deficit worth 3.2% of GDP in 2014 and 2.6% in 2015 (compared to 2.8% and 2.6% respectively before).

Key Risks To Outlook:

  • Our broad outlook is dependent on the maintenance of a stable political situation that allows for significant levels of foreign investment and the implementation of the government's reform and development plans. Such stability is not a certainty, however, and for this reason ethnic and political tensions pose the key risk to the country's economic prospects.

  • The economy's reliance on cocoa exports means that poor weather could seriously damage exports. Conversely, if global cocoa prices push higher than we are currently predicting, this would put upward pressure on our outlook for exports.

...
COTE DIVOIRE - MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1:Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Ratings
7
Domestic Politics
8
Significant Reconciliation Unlikely In 2014
8
Table: Political Overview
8
Long-Term Political Outlook
10
Post-Conflict Challenges To Linger
10
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
13
SWOT Analysis
13
BMI Economic Risk Ratings
13
Economic Activity
14
Economic Growth To Remain Strong In 2014
14
TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
14
Balance Of Payments
16
Higher Cocoa Prices Sweeten Outlook For Current Account
16
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT
16
Fiscal Policy
18
Fiscal Deficit To Steadily Narrow
18
TABLE: FISCAL POLICY
18
TABLE: Exports As % Of Total
19
Regional Economic Outlook
20
Five Key Themes For 2014
20
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
23
The Ivorian Economy To 2023
23
A Bright Decade Ahead, But Fragilities To Persist
23
TABLE: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
23
Chapter 4: Business Environment
25
SWOT Analysis
25
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings
25
Business Environment Outlook
26
Institutions
26
TABLE: BMI BUSINESS AND OPERATION RISK RATINGS
26
Table: BMI LEGAL FRAMEWORK RATING
27
Infrastructure
28
Table: LABOUR FORCE QUALITY
28
Market Orientation
29
TABLE: AFRICA - ANNUAL FDI INFLOWS
29
TABLE: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS-
30
Operational Risk
31
Chapter 5: BMI Global Assumptions
33
Global Outlook
33
Momentum To Continue In H114
33
Table: Global Assumptions
33
Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, %
34
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
34
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth, %
35

The Cote d'Ivoire Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in The Cote d'Ivoire and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of The Cote d'Ivoire's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of The Cote d'Ivoire's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise The Cote d'Ivoire's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in The Cote d'Ivoire, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Cote d'Ivoire Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes three major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook and Business Environment.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Ivorian economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for The Cote d'Ivoire through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Cote d'Ivoire Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for The Cote d'Ivoire and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on The Cote d'Ivoire, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in The Cote d'Ivoire over the next 5-years?

BMI's The Cote d'Ivoire country Risk Ratings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the  Ivorian Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing The Cote d'Ivoire.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for The Cote d'Ivoire's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark The Cote d'Ivoire's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Business Environment

Business Environment Risk Ratings with SWOT Analysis - Business environment Risk Ratings for The Cote d'Ivoire, benchmarked against ratings for regional neighbours.

Country Competitiveness - Competitiveness of The Cote d'Ivoire's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability, compared with regional neighbours.

Business Environment Contents

  • Domestic Environment - Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - Analysis of foreign investment regime; foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors.
  • Foreign Trade - Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas.

Key Benefits

  • Assess your company's evolving exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI's in-depth analysis of the legal and regulatory business environment.
  • Understand your market's comparative strengths and weaknesses in the key areas of commercial infrastructure and business institutions, using BMI's proprietary global Business Environment Risk Ratings.

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Testimonials

The sections that I find most interesting and useful are the macroeconomic data and forecasts for the country, top export destinations and economic activity. The indicators/analysis of these areas helps us orient our thinking, our assumptions and, consequently, our decisions in the commercial area.

Country Manager, DHL Express