Business Monitor International


Congo Oil & Gas Report

Published 03 September 2014

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$1,295.00
Congo Oil & Gas Report

BMI View:   Congo Brazzaville is getting a bump up in our ratings as a result of a string of offshore discoveries in late 2013 and early 2014. Sub-salt discoveries, oil sands revamping of the regulatory framework and a government programme to get new oil from old fields should raise interest in a forthcoming offshore acreage auctions.

Headline Forecasts (Congo-Brazzaville 2012-2018)
  2012e 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 292.0 283.6 274.8 355.8 398.9 394.1 386.4
Dry natural gas production, bcm 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.1
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.1
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 11.9 13.1 14.3 15.7 17.3 19.0 20.3
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI

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Main trends and developments

Marine XII moving ahead: Eni and the government of Congo-Brazzaville have signed a framework agreement to allow the development of the latest deepwater subsalt field. Signed in July 2014, the agreement allows Eni and its partners to begin work on the field, discovered in 2013, which is now forecast to hold up to 1.2bn barrels of oil and 30bn cubic metres of gas.

While still below its crude production peak of 310,000 b/d, and languishing at 274,800 b/d in 2014, we forecast a near 30% leap in production to 355,800 b/d in 2015 and a further jump to 398,900 b/d in 2016 as new offshore fields and enhanced recovery projects onshore come into production.

Gas remains a stranded commodity in Congo-Brazzaville with modest domestic usage and no formal plans for LNG. In the meantime, gas is primarily used to enhance recovery rates in mature oil fields.

Congo-Brazzaville's risk profile is improving due to deteriorating conditions elsewhere on...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Industry Forecast
12
Oil and Gas Reserves
12
Table: Congo (Brazzaville) Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
15
Table: Congo (Brazzaville) Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
16
Oil Supply And Demand
17
Table: Congo (Brazzaville) Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
18
Table: Congo (Brazzaville) Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
19
Gas Supply And Demand
20
Table: Congo (Brazzaville) Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
21
Table: Congo (Brazzaville) Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2018-2023
22
Refining And Oil Products Trade
23
Table: Congo (Brazzaville) Refining - Production and Consumption, 2012-2017
24
Table: Congo (Brazzaville) Refining - Production and Consumption, 2018-2023
24
Revenues/Import Costs
25
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
25
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
27
Africa - Risk/Reward Ratings
27
Table: BMI's Africa Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
28
Riches Lie Underground, While Above-Ground Risks Continue To Loom
28
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
30
An Underwhelming Downstream
35
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Republic Of Congo - Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Congo Upstream Rating - Rewards
38
Congo Upstream Rating - Risks
39
Congo Downstream Rating - Rewards
39
Congo Downstream Rating - Risks
39
Market Overview
41
Republic Of Congo Energy Market Overview
41
Licensing And Regulation
43
Licensing Rounds
44
International Energy Relations
44
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
46
Oil Refineries
46
Table: Refineries In Congo
46
LNG
47
Service Stations
47
Oil Terminals/Ports
47
Oil Pipelines
47
Competitive Landscape
48
Competitive Landscape Summary
48
Table: Key Players In The Republic Of Congo's Energy Sector
49
Table: Key Upstream Players
49
Table: Key Downstream Players
49
Company Profile
50
Total Congo
50
Eni
55
Other Summaries
59
Regional Overview
64
Africa Overview
64
Rising Offshore Interest
64
Unconventionals : New Frontier
66
East Africa: Offshore Gas, Onshore Oil
67
Downstream Blues
70
High-Risk Continent
72
Global Industry Overview
76
Global Energy Market Overview
76
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
78
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
79
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
80
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
82
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
82
Appendix
85
Africa - Regional Appendix
85
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
85
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
86
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
86
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
87
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
88
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
88
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
89
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
90
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
90
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
91
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
92
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
92
Republic of Congo - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
93
Table: Congo Brazzaville Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2012 -2017
93
Table: Congo Brazzaville Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2018 -2023
94
Table: Congo Brazzaville Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2012-2017
95
Table: Congo Brazzaville Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2018-2023
96
Table: Congo Brazzaville Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2012-2017
98
Table: Congo Brazzaville Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2018-2023
98
Glossary
100
Table: Glossary Of Terms
100
Methodology
102
Industry Forecast Methodology
102
Source
104
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
104
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
106
Table: Weighting
107

The Congo Brazzaville Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Congo including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Congo Brazzaville Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Congolese oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Congo to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Congolese oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Congolese oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Congo.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc