Business Monitor International


Colombia Retail Report

Published 05 June 2014

  • 67 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Colombia Retail Report

BMI View: Colombia's retail sector shows strong growth projections for the 2014-2018 forecast period. BMI forecasts that total GDP will increase 52% from US$385bn in 2014 to US$585bn in 2018 , creating economic growth in the nation. This will have a positive impact on total retail spending which is forecast to increase 52% over the five - year projection period. All sectors of the market are positioned for growth ; however , fastest growth rates are projected to occur in the t ransport and r ecreation , and c ulture sectors which are forecast to have an average rate of increase of 9.6% throughout the projection period. The largest share of market spending will remain the h ousing and utilities , and f ood and drink sectors throughout the projection period.

Colombia's rapid growth of GDP has created increases in the size of the middle class and the proportion of disposable income per household. As the majority of the population (70%) exists below the US$10,000 annual income threshold, the retail market is not yet fully developed. This creates opportunities for growth to those operators who are able to enter the nation and establish themselves. Throughout the projection period, BMI forecasts that the total number of households earning US$10,000+ will increase from 27.4% of the population in 2014 to 41.0% of the population in 2018. This income bracket is a key customer segment for the retail sector, and growth in this income bracket creates opportunities' in the retail market.

The growth of the middle class and rising GDP create an increase in the total spend in the retail sector of 52% throughout the five-year projection period. BMI forecasts that total spend in retail will increase from US$224bn in 2014 to US343bn in 2018. The total spend per household is forecast to increase from US$15,657 in 2014 to US$22,118 in 2018. The high average spend indicates that the retail sector is currently split between high spending households of the upper-middle...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Retail
8
Political
9
Economic
10
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
12
Retail Growth Outlook
12
Table: Retail Sales Indicators, (2011-2017)
12
Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segments, 2013f
15
Macroeconomic Forecasts
16
Economic Analysis
16
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
18
Latin American Risk/Reward Ratings
18
Table: Latin America Retail Risk/Reward Ratings
18
Colombia Risk Reward Ratings
19
Market Overview
21
Current Trends
22
Key players
25
Regional Overview
27
Latin American Regional Overview
27
Table: Latin America Retail Trends, 2010-2017
27
Latin America Retail Trends
28
Table: Regional Retail Sales, 2010-2017 (US$bn)
28
Table: % of Regional Retail Sales, 2010-2017
29
Table: Latin American Food Consumption, 2010-2017 (US$bn)
30
Table: Latin American Mass Grocery Retail, 2010-2017 (US$bn)
33
Mass Grocery Retail
40
SWOT
40
Mass Grocery Retail - Industry Forecast
42
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
42
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type, %
43
Table: Food & Drink Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
43
Market Overview
44
Table: Structure Of Colombia's MGR Market - Estimated Number Of Outlets, 2004-2010
46
Table: Structure Of Colombia's MGR Market - Value Sales By Format, 2004-2010 (US$bn)
46
Table: Structure Of Colombia's MGR Market - Sales By Format, 2004-2010 (COPbn)
46
Table: Average Annual Sales Value By Format, 2010
47
Autos
48
SWOT
48
Table: Colombia Autos Industry SWOT
48
Industry Forecast
48
Table: Colombia Autos Sector - Sales, 2010-2017
48
Table: Colombia Autos Sector - Production, 2010-2017
50
Passenger Vehicles
55
Table: Top 10 Manufacturers By Sales (Jan-Oct 2012)
55
Table: Top 10 Best-Selling Passenger Cars (H112)
56
Market Overview
57
Consumer Electronics
63
SWOT
63
Industry Forecast
65
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2010-2017
65
Market Overview
67
Demographic Forecast
73
Demographic Outlook
73
Table: Colombia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
74
Table: Colombia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
75
Table: Colombia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
76
Table: Colombia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
76
Methodology
77
Sources
78

The Colombia Retail Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.

BMI's Colombia Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Colombia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Colombian retail market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Colombia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:

Headline Retail Forecast: Total Household Spending, (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household); Spending by Retail Sector for: food and non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing and footwear, housing and utilities, furnishings and home, health, transport, recreation, education, transport, restaurants and hotels, personal care and insurance (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)

Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tableware, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (US$bn, % Growth);

Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000,% growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – US$5000+, US$10,000+ US$50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)

Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).

Industry Risk Reward Rankings

BMI’s Retail Industry Risk Reward Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk Reward Rankings index aimed at investors in the regional retail market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Market Overview

Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care.

The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.

Competitive Landscape

This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc