Business Monitor International


Colombia Retail Report

Published 14 October 2014

  • 67 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Colombia Retail Report

BMI View:   Colombia's retail sector forecasts show strong potential for growth, specifically at the end of the projection period during 201 7 -201 8 . BMI forecasts that total GDP will increase 45 % from US D397 bn in 2014 to US D 5 7 5bn in 2018, creating growth in the national economy and increasing net income levels. BMI forecasts that total spending in retail will grow more   than GDP and will increase by 46 % throughout the projection period with total spending increasing from US D55.3 bn in 2014 to US D80.8 bn in 2018. The total annual spending in the retail sector per household is forecasted to increase from US D3,864 to US D5,217, creating a large boost in revenue across all retail sectors. The average annual growth rate of the retail sector is forecasted to be 10.0 %, however 2014 is forecasted to be a year of relative struggle with only 3.5 % annual growth projected. BMI forecasts that growth will rebound strongly at   7.7 % in 2015 , 9.9% in 2016 and above 10% thereafter. The largest share of market spending will remain in personal, insurance and other, housing and utilities, and food and drink sectors throughout the projection period.

Colombia's rapid growth of GDP has created increases in the size of the middle class and the proportion of disposable income per household. BMI forecasts that 71.6% of the population will remain below the key annual income level of USD10,000-plus in 2014, indicating a population that is still predominantly below middle class, and will make large scale modern retail outlets less viable in the short term. Despite this, BMI forecasts that throughout the projection period the number of households above the USD10,000 threshold will increase from 28.4% of the population to 40.2% of the population, indicating opportunities for modern retailers to expand throughout the projection period.

The growth of the middle class and rising GDP create an increase in the total spend in the retail sector of...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Retail
8
Political
9
Economic
10
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
12
Retail Growth Outlook
12
Table: Retail Sales Indicators, (2011-2017)
12
Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segments, 2013f
15
Macroeconomic Forecasts
16
Economic Analysis
16
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
18
Latin American Risk/Reward Ratings
18
Table: Latin America Retail Risk/Reward Ratings
18
Colombia Risk Reward Ratings
19
Market Overview
21
Current Trends
22
Key players
25
Regional Overview
27
Latin American Regional Overview
27
Table: Latin America Retail Trends, 2010-2017
27
Latin America Retail Trends
28
Table: Regional Retail Sales, 2010-2017 (US$bn)
28
Table: % of Regional Retail Sales, 2010-2017
29
Table: Latin American Food Consumption, 2010-2017 (US$bn)
30
Table: Latin American Mass Grocery Retail, 2010-2017 (US$bn)
33
Mass Grocery Retail
40
SWOT
40
Mass Grocery Retail - Industry Forecast
42
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
42
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type, %
43
Table: Food & Drink Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
43
Market Overview
44
Table: Structure Of Colombia's MGR Market - Estimated Number Of Outlets, 2004-2010
46
Table: Structure Of Colombia's MGR Market - Value Sales By Format, 2004-2010 (US$bn)
46
Table: Structure Of Colombia's MGR Market - Sales By Format, 2004-2010 (COPbn)
46
Table: Average Annual Sales Value By Format, 2010
47
Autos
48
SWOT
48
Table: Colombia Autos Industry SWOT
48
Industry Forecast
48
Table: Colombia Autos Sector - Sales, 2010-2017
48
Table: Colombia Autos Sector - Production, 2010-2017
50
Passenger Vehicles
55
Table: Top 10 Manufacturers By Sales (Jan-Oct 2012)
55
Table: Top 10 Best-Selling Passenger Cars (H112)
56
Market Overview
57
Consumer Electronics
63
SWOT
63
Industry Forecast
65
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2010-2017
65
Market Overview
67
Demographic Forecast
73
Demographic Outlook
73
Table: Colombia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
74
Table: Colombia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
75
Table: Colombia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
76
Table: Colombia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
76
Methodology
77
Sources
78

The Colombia Retail Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.

BMI's Colombia Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Colombia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Colombian retail market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Colombia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:

Headline Retail Forecast: Total Household Spending, (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household); Spending by Retail Sector for: food and non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing and footwear, housing and utilities, furnishings and home, health, transport, recreation, education, transport, restaurants and hotels, personal care and insurance (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)

Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tableware, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (US$bn, % Growth);

Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000,% growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – US$5000+, US$10,000+ US$50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)

Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).

Industry Risk Reward Rankings

BMI’s Retail Industry Risk Reward Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk Reward Rankings index aimed at investors in the regional retail market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Market Overview

Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care.

The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.

Competitive Landscape

This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc