Business Monitor International


Colombia Retail Report

Published 14 October 2014

  • 67 pages
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$1,295.00
Colombia Retail Report

BMI View:   Colombia's retail sector forecasts show strong potential for growth, specifically at the end of the projection period during 201 7 -201 8 . BMI forecasts that total GDP will increase 45 % from US D397 bn in 2014 to US D 5 7 5bn in 2018, creating growth in the national economy and increasing net income levels. BMI forecasts that total spending in retail will grow more   than GDP and will increase by 46 % throughout the projection period with total spending increasing from US D55.3 bn in 2014 to US D80.8 bn in 2018. The total annual spending in the retail sector per household is forecasted to increase from US D3,864 to US D5,217, creating a large boost in revenue across all retail sectors. The average annual growth rate of the retail sector is forecasted to be 10.0 %, however 2014 is forecasted to be a year of relative struggle with only 3.5 % annual growth projected. BMI forecasts that growth will rebound strongly at   7.7 % in 2015 , 9.9% in 2016 and above 10% thereafter. The largest share of market spending will remain in personal, insurance and other, housing and utilities, and food and drink sectors throughout the projection period.

Colombia's rapid growth of GDP has created increases in the size of the middle class and the proportion of disposable income per household. BMI forecasts that 71.6% of the population will remain below the key annual income level of USD10,000-plus in 2014, indicating a population that is still predominantly below middle class, and will make large scale modern retail outlets less viable in the short term. Despite this, BMI forecasts that throughout the projection period the number of households above the USD10,000 threshold will increase from 28.4% of the population to 40.2% of the population, indicating opportunities for modern retailers to expand throughout the projection period.

The growth of the middle class and rising GDP create an increase in the total spend in the retail sector of...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Retail SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Industry Forecast
13
Headline Retail Forecast
13
Table: Total Household Spending (Colombia 2011-2018)
15
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Colombia 2011-2018)
16
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Colombia 2011-2018)
18
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Colombia 2011-2018)
19
Retail Sector Forecast
22
Food And Drink
23
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (Colombia 2011-2018)
24
Clothing And Footwear
25
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (Colombia 2011-2018)
25
Household Goods
26
Table: Household Goods Spending (Colombia 2011-2018)
26
Personal Care And Effects
27
Table: Personal Care Spending (Colombia 2011-2018)
28
Household Income and Numbers Forecast
29
Table: Household Income Data (Colombia 2011-2018)
30
Table: Labour Market Data (Colombia 2011-2018)
33
Demographic Forecast
34
Table: Total Population (Colombia 2011-2018)
35
Table: Population: Babies (Colombia 2011-2018)
36
Table: Population: Young Children (Colombia 2011-2018)
36
Table: Population: Children (Colombia 2011-2018)
36
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Colombia 2011-2018)
37
Table: Population: Young People (Colombia 2011-2018)
37
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Colombia 2011-2018)
37
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Colombia 2011-2018)
38
Table: Population: Young Adults (Colombia 2011-2018)
38
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Colombia 2011-2018)
38
Table: Population: Urban (Colombia 2011-2018)
39
Macroeconomic Forecasts
40
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Colombia 2011-2018)
44
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
46
Latin America Risk/Reward Ratings
46
Table: Latin America Retail Risk/Reward Ratings
46
Colombia Risk Reward Ratings
47
Rewards
47
Risks
47
Market Overview
48
Retail Subsectors
49
Tourism
53
Competitive Landscape
54
Glossary
59
Methodology
67
Industry Forecast Methodology
67
Sources
70
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
70
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
72
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
73

The Colombia Retail Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.

BMI's Colombia Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Colombia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Colombian retail market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Colombia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:

Headline Retail Forecast: Total Household Spending, (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household); Spending by Retail Sector for: food and non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing and footwear, housing and utilities, furnishings and home, health, transport, recreation, education, transport, restaurants and hotels, personal care and insurance (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)

Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tableware, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (US$bn, % Growth);

Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000,% growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – US$5000+, US$10,000+ US$50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)

Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).

Industry Risk Reward Rankings

BMI’s Retail Industry Risk Reward Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk Reward Rankings index aimed at investors in the regional retail market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Market Overview

Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care.

The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.

Competitive Landscape

This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc