Business Monitor International


Colombia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 12 February 2014

  • 112 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Colombia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: As BMI's July 2013 forecast for government drug pricing pressure to increase in Colombia has materialised, we now believe drugmaker s' revenue streams will continue to be constrained over the coming years. On the positive side, we expect volume sales will be boosted and partially offset the negative impacts of further drug price cuts. Colombia's relatively advanced drug reimbursement system will still offer revenue-generating opportunities for multinationals in comparison with other second-tier Latin American pharmaceutical markets.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: COP8,126bn (US$4.35bn) in 2013 to COP8,709bn (US$4.63bn) in 2014; +7.2% in local currency terms and +6.5% in US dollar terms. Forecasts broadly unchanged in relation to the previous quarter.

  • Healthcare: COP42,811bn (US$22.92bn) in 2013 to COP46,186bn (US$24.57bn) in 2014; +7.9% in local currency terms and +7.2% in US dollar terms. Forecasts broadly unchanged in relation to the previous quarter.

Risk/Reward Rating: In our Q214 regional RRR assessment, Colombia moved to eighth place out of 18 markets surveyed in the Americas region. Colombia boasts above-average Rewards and Risks. Although we caution that the country's intellectual property (IP) regime and its unresolved security situation will continue to represent barriers to multinational involvement, Colombia will remain of interest from a longer-term point of view, not least on account of its substantial population.

Key Trends And Developments

  • In January 2014, the Colombian Medical Federation released a new list of medicines under the government price controls in 2014. It is expected to save the Colombian Ministry of Health US$136mn in 2014 as a result of having 39 of the most expensive drugs in the country under the Direct Control Regime. Drugs on the control list cover many major disease treatments, such as diabetes, hypertension, bacterial infections, Parkinson's disease, Alzheimer's disease, cancer...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Colombia Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data and Forecasts
15
Healthcare Market Forecast
16
Table: Colombia Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts
18
Table: Colombia Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts
18
Table: Colombia Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts
19
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
19
Table: Colombia Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
20
Patented Drug Market Forecast
21
Table: Colombia Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
22
Generic Drug Market Forecast
22
Table: Colombia Generics Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
24
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
24
Table: Colombia Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
26
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
27
Table: Colombia Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (US$mn)
28
Other Healthcare Data
28
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
29
Macroeconomic Forecasts
30
Economic Analysis
30
Table: Colombia - Economic Activity
34
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
35
Americas Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Colombia Risk/Reward Ratings
40
Rewards
40
Risks
40
Market Overview
42
Industry Trends And Developments
43
Epidemiology
43
Healthcare Sector
44
Healthcare Insurance
45
Private Health Insurance
48
Healthcare Insurance Funding
48
Research and Development (R&D)
50
Table: Pharmaceutical Research and Science Centre (CECIF) Members, 2012
51
Clinical Trials
51
Regulatory Development
54
Intellectual Property Regime
55
Intellectual Property Shortcomings
56
Table: Colombia-US FTA Mechanisms Relevant To Intellectual Property
60
Pricing Regime
61
Table: New Drug Pricing Classification by Type, 2005
62
Reimbursement Regime
64
Competitive Landscape
67
Pharmaceutical Industry
67
Domestic Pharmaceutical Sector
68
Foreign Pharmaceutical Sector
68
Table: Members Of Asociaci-n De Laboratorios Farmac-uticos De Investigaci-n (AFIDRO), 2012
69
Table: Leading Pharmaceutical Companies By Revenues, 2011 (COPmn)
70
Table: Leading Pharmaceutical Importers/Wholesalers By Revenues, 2011
71
Pharmaceutical Retail
73
Table: Leading Pharmaceutical Retailers, 2009-2010
75
Company Profile
77
Tecnoqu-micas
77
Lafrancol
81
Laboratorios Genfar SA
84
Laboratorios Bussi-
86
GlaxoSmithKline
88
Pfizer
91
Merck & Co
93
Sanofi
96
Novartis
99
Demographic Forecast
101
Table: Colombia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
102
Table: Colombia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
103
Table: Colombia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
104
Table: Colombia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
104
Glossary
105
Methodology
107
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
107
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
107
Notes On Methodology
108
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
109
Ratings Overview
110
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
110
Indicator Weightings
111

The Colombia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Colombia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Colombian pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for Colombia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Colombian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Colombian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Colombia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)

Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)

Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)

Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)

OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)

Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc