Business Monitor International


Colombia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 27 May 2014

  • 112 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Colombia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: Revenue recorded by multinational pharmaceutical companies will continue to be constrained in Colombia over the coming years due to severe drug price cuts. Less stringent bioequivalence regulations will also undermine sale growth posted by branded generic drugmakers. However, Colombia's relatively advanced drug reimbursement system will still offer revenue-generating opportunities for multinationals in comparison with other second-tier Latin American pharmaceutical markets.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: COP8,126bn (USD4.35bn) in 2013 to COP8,695bn (USD4.39bn) in 2014; +7.0% in local currency terms and +1.0% in US dollar terms. Forecasts revised down due to the strict implementation of drug price controls and the promotion of generic drugs.

  • Healthcare: COP42,928bn (USD22.96bn) in 2013 to COP46,159bn (USD23.31bn) in 2014; +7.5% in local currency terms and +1.5% in US dollar terms. Forecasts revised down due to macroeconomic forecast changes.

Risk/Reward Rating: In our Q214 regional RRR assessment, Colombia moved to eighth place out of 18 markets surveyed in the Americas region. Colombia boasts above-average Rewards and Risks. Although we caution that the country's intellectual property (IP) regime and its unresolved security situation will continue to represent barriers to multinational involvement, Colombia will remain of interest from a longer-term point of view, not least on account of its substantial population.

Key Trends And Developments

  • In mid-February 2014, the Minister of Health and Social Protection announced that as of February 13 2014, price cuts have been enforced on 523 active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and that 95% of the drugmakers complied with the regulations.

  • At the end of February 2014, the government published the final list of medicines subject to price controls and announced that it planned to save over CLP90bn (USD160mn) from the scheme.

  • In March 2014, Colombia's Superintendency of...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts
15
Healthcare Market Forecast
16
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts
18
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts
19
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts
20
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
21
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
22
Patented Drug Market Forecast
22
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
23
Generic Drug Market Forecast
24
Table: Generics Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
26
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
26
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
28
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
29
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecast
30
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts COP
31
Other Healthcare Data
31
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
32
Macroeconomic Forecasts
33
Table: Colombia - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %
37
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
38
Americas Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Colombia Risk/Reward Ratings
44
Rewards
44
Risks
44
Market Overview
46
Industry Trends And Developments
47
Epidemiology
47
Healthcare Sector
48
Healthcare Insurance
49
Private Health Insurance
52
Healthcare Insurance Funding
52
Research and Development (R&D)
54
Table: Pharmaceutical Research and Science Centre (CECIF) Members, 2012
55
Clinical Trials
55
Regulatory Development
57
Intellectual Property Regime
58
Intellectual Property Shortcomings
59
Table: Colombia-US FTA Mechanisms Relevant To Intellectual Property
63
Pricing Regime
64
Table: New Drug Pricing Classification by Type, 2005
65
Reimbursement Regime
68
Competitive Landscape
71
Pharmaceutical Industry
71
Domestic Pharmaceutical Sector
72
Foreign Pharmaceutical Sector
72
Table: Members Of Asociaci-n De Laboratorios Farmac-uticos De Investigaci-n (AFIDRO), 2012
73
Table: Leading Pharmaceutical Companies By Revenues, 2011 (COPmn)
74
Table: Leading Pharmaceutical Importers/Wholesalers By Revenues, 2011
75
Pharmaceutical Retail
77
Table: Leading Pharmaceutical Retailers, 2009-2010
79
Company Profile
81
Tecnoqu-micas
81
Lafrancol
85
Laboratorios Genfar SA
88
Laboratorios Bussi-
90
GlaxoSmithKline
92
Pfizer
95
Merck & Co
97
Sanofi
100
Novartis
103
Demographic Forecast
105
Table: Colombia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
106
Table: Colombia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
107
Table: Colombia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
108
Table: Colombia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
108
Glossary
109
Methodology
111
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
111
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
111
Notes On Methodology
112
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
113
Ratings Overview
114
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
114
Indicator Weightings
115

The Colombia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Colombia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Colombian pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for Colombia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Colombian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Colombian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Colombia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)

Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)

Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)

Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)

OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)

Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc