Business Monitor International


Colombia Petrochemicals Report

Published 26 November 2014

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Colombia Petrochemicals Report

BMI View: In the wake of the stagnant growth rates seen in Colombian petrochemicals industry over 2014, reflecting poor domestic market performance , we expect a moderate improvement over 2015 due to strong overall economic growth . However we caution that the rate of petrochemicals consumption will see modest growth .

Growth in petrochemicals consuming industries such as the automotive and construction sectors has been strong, but has not benefitted the Colombian petrochemicals market. The automotive industry depends on imported kits and parts, which limits the amount of input from locally produced polymer and synthetic rubber products. Meanwhile, the construction industry has been largely buoyed up by a road infrastructure programme, which requires far less polymer use, unlike residential housing which utilises polymer pipes and other extruded materials.

  • The current investment drive is towards expanding the refining sector. Refining capacity is expected to rise from 335,850 barrels per day (b/d) in 2014 to 420,850b/d in 2015 as a result of updates to the Barrancabermeja and Reficar facilities.

  • Potential naphtha provided by extra capacity may not justify cracker expansion, but could improve local propylene supply, thereby justifying an increase in polypropylene (PP) capacity.

  • No petrochemicals capacity expansion is expected in the years ahead. Ecopetrol has mooted a number of petrochemicals expansions in recent years, but without any commitment. It has, in the past, proposed a new cracker with associated polyethylene (PE) and PP near Cartagena, but no progress has been made.

  • In 2014 Colombia's petrochemicals facilities included capacities of 120,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) ethylene, 45,000tpa benzene, 20,000tpa toluene, 35,000tpa xylenes, 45,000tpa polyethylene terepthalate (PET), 60,000tpa low density polyethyelen (LDPE), 103,000tpa polystyrene (PS), 400,000tpa poly vinyl chloride (PVC), 500,000tpa PP, 115,000tpa ammonia and 185,000tpa urea.

  • ...

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
6
SWOT Analysis
7
Colombia Petrochemicals Industry SWOT Analysis
7
Colombia Political SWOT Analysis
7
Colombia Economic SWOT Analysis
8
Colombia Business Environment SWOT Analysis
8
Global Petrochemicals Overview
9
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
13
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts , 2010-2016
14
Table: Middle East Outperforms In Terms of Passenger Growth
19
Latin America Overview
23
Colombia Market Overview
28
Table: Colombia-s Petrochemicals Facilities
28
Industry Trends And Developments
30
Latin America Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
32
Table: Americas Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
34
Industry Forecast Scenario
35
Table: Colombia-s Petrochemicals Sector, 2010-2017 (-000 tpa, unless otherwise stated)
36
Macroeconomic Outlook
37
Table: Colombia - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %, 2009-2016
38
Company Profiles
39
Empresa Colombiana de Petroleos (Ecopetrol)
39
Mexichem Resinas Colombia (MRC) (Petroqu-mica Colombiana (Petco))
42
Polipropileno del Caribe (Propilco)
43
Glossary Of Terms
44
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
44
Country Snapshot
45
Table: Colombia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
46
Table: Colombia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
47
Table: Colombia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
48
Table: Colombia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
48
BMI Methodology
49
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
49
Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry
49
Cross Checks
50
Business Environment Ratings
51
Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale
52
Weighting
52
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
53

The Colombia Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Colombia Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Colombian petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Colombian petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Colombian petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Colombia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering the petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the petrochemicals sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Energy: Oil production (‘000 b/d), oil consumption (‘000 b/d), net oil exports (‘000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (‘000 b/d).
  • Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), ethylene production (‘000 tpa), ethylene consumption (‘000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (‘000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (‘000 tpa).
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (USD/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic: Nominal GDP (USDbn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (USD), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against USD).

BMI’s Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (both corporate and financial) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global & Regional Market Overview

Analysis of the key trends driving the global industry, including worldwide output/capacity and demand analysis across ethylene, polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, polystyrene, polyethylene terephthalate and polypropylene. The regional analysis looks at the implications of local and global trends on specific company activity.

Sub-sectors covered by the Petrochemicals Reports include:

Oil & Gas, Oil Refining, Olefins (ethylene, propylene), Polyolefins (polyethylene, polypropylene), Polyvinyl Chloride, Polystyrene

Please note – not all country Reports cover all sub-sectors – see website for details.

Sources

The Petrochemicals Market Reports are based on a network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (ACC, APLA, Cefi c, ICCA, ICMA), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offi ces, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc