Business Monitor International


Colombia Petrochemicals Report

Published 22 November 2013

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Colombia Petrochemicals Report

The Colombian government is currently in the middle of a refinery expansion programme, hoping to turn a small oil products import requirement into an equally small export flow. BMI's latest Colombia Petrochemicals Report suggests this expansion could open up opportunities for increasing naphtha feedstock availability for the downstream petrochemicals industry.

The Colombian petrochemicals industry saw a decline in rubber and plastics output in 2013. While there was a definite uptrend in chemicals going into H213, both plastics and rubber were expected to perform poorly for the whole of the year. The poor output performance of petrochemicals industries in 2013 came amid deteriorating market conditions. The decline was related to weakening household spending over the period with average retail sales growth.

In 2013, Colombia's petrochemicals facilities included capacities of 120,000tpa ethylene, 45,000tpa benzene, 20,000tpa toluene, 35,000tpa xylenes, 45,000tpa PET, 60,000tpa LDPE, 103,000tpa PS, 400,000tpa PVC, 500,000tpa PP, 115,000tpa ammonia and 185,000tpa urea. These capacities are unlikely to change over the next five years. Ecopetrol has, in the past, proposed a new cracker with associated PE and PP near Cartagena, but no progress has been made.

BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

  • BMI believes that the Colombian market will recover from 2014 with improving consumer and business confidence pointing to stronger household spending and industrial production. This will, in turn, support growth in petrochemicals-consuming sectors, helping to revive chemical, rubber and plastics output.

  • BMI does not believe that any further petrochemicals capacity expansion is viable until the completion of the expansion of the refineries at Barrancabermeja and Cartagena, which is due in 2014 or 2015. Ecopetrol's Bolívar refinery in Cartagena, the country's second biggest facility, will be upgraded over the course of 2014.

  • In BMI's Americas Petrochemicals...

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
6
SWOT Analysis
7
Colombia Petrochemicals Industry SWOT Analysis
7
Colombia Political SWOT Analysis
7
Colombia Economic SWOT Analysis
8
Colombia Business Environment SWOT Analysis
8
Global Petrochemicals Overview
9
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
13
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts , 2010-2016
14
Table: Middle East Outperforms In Terms of Passenger Growth
19
Latin America Overview
23
Colombia Market Overview
28
Table: Colombia-s Petrochemicals Facilities
28
Industry Trends And Developments
30
Latin America Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
32
Table: Americas Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
34
Industry Forecast Scenario
35
Table: Colombia-s Petrochemicals Sector, 2010-2017 (-000 tpa, unless otherwise stated)
36
Macroeconomic Outlook
37
Table: Colombia - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %, 2009-2016
38
Company Profiles
39
Empresa Colombiana de Petroleos (Ecopetrol)
39
Mexichem Resinas Colombia (MRC) (Petroqu-mica Colombiana (Petco))
42
Polipropileno del Caribe (Propilco)
43
Glossary Of Terms
44
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
44
Country Snapshot
45
Table: Colombia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
46
Table: Colombia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
47
Table: Colombia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
48
Table: Colombia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
48
BMI Methodology
49
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
49
Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry
49
Cross Checks
50
Business Environment Ratings
51
Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale
52
Weighting
52
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
53

The Colombia Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Colombia Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Colombian petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Colombian petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Colombian petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Colombia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (both corporate and financial) in the regional petrochemicals market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Energy: Oil production (`000 b/d), oil consumption (`000 b/d), net oil exports (`000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (`000 b/d).

Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (`000 tpa), ethylene production (`000 tpa), ethylene consumption (`000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (`000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (`000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (`000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (`000 tpa).

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (US$/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.

Economic: Nominal GDP (US$bn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against US$).

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc