Business Monitor International


Colombia Oil & Gas Report

Published 27 March 2014

  • 117 pages
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$1,295.00
Colombia Oil & Gas Report

BMI View : Colombia's energy sector seems to be headed for an inflection point over the medium term. In the past decade we have seen strong liquids production growth, buoyed by improvements to the business and security environment as well as favourable contract terms. However, a tendency toward smaller finds, as well as a recent uptick in attacks on pipelines has begun to suggest some downside pressure on production over the longer term. Unlocking the country's offshore and unconventional resource potential could be a crucial step in helping to bolster its proven reserve levels, supporting greater long-term production gains, though we note that right now such exploration is still at a nascent phase. This implies both significant upside and downside risks to the country's long-term liquids production and reserve growth forecasts.

Recent trends and developments:

  • Colombia's attractive fiscal regime, contract terms and regulatory environment has seen significant growth in foreign investment into its oil sector, helping to propel production growth of more than 70% since the mid-2000s. As of 2013, preliminary monthly data from the EIA show that production has exceeded the 1mn barrels per day (b/d) threshold, and by 2018, we forecast crude, NGL and other liquids production to reach 1.3mn b/d. While we expect the upward trend to continue, we note that growth could slow unless we see the country address its more modest reserves picture, as well as the recent deterioration in the security environment.

  • At this stage, we are currently forecasting reserves growth reaching 2.7bn barrels (bbl) by 2018, with modest further growth through the end of our forecast period. While oil discoveries are made on a regular basis in Colombia, discoveries have tended to be of modest size. The country's crude reserves represent about seven years' worth of current supply, but with production growth increasing fast, Colombia has not yet managed to move beyond this level.

  • Although...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Table: Colombia Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
10
Table: Colombia Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
11
Oil Supply And Demand
12
Table: Colombia Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
12
Table: Colombia Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2017-2022
13
Gas Supply And Demand
19
Table: Colombia Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
19
Table: Colombia Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
20
Refining And Oil Products Trade
23
Table: Colombia Refining - Production And Consumption, 2012-2017
23
Table: Colombia Refining - Production And Consumption, 2018-2023
23
Revenues/Import Costs
25
Challenges/Risks To Outlook
25
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
27
Latin America - Risk/Reward Ratings
27
Table: Latin America Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
28
Reforms Prompting A Shake Up
29
Table: Latin America Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
32
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
32
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
33
Colombia Risk/Reward Ratings
34
Colombia Upstream Rating - Overview
34
Colombia Upstream Rating - Rewards
34
Colombia Upstream Rating - Risks
35
Colombia Downstream Rating - Overview
35
Market Overview
36
Colombia Energy Market Overview
36
Overview/State Role
36
Licensing And Regulation
36
Table: Royalty Rates
37
Government Policy
39
International Energy Relations
39
Table: Colombia - Upstream Projects Database
40
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
41
Oil Refineries
41
Table: Refineries In Colombia
41
Service Stations
42
Oil Terminals/ Ports
42
Oil Pipelines
43
LNG Terminals
46
Gas Pipelines
47
Competitive Landscape
48
Competitive Landscape Summary
48
Table: Key Players - Colombian Oil & Gas Sector
49
Company Profile
50
Empresa Colombiana de Petr-leos (Ecopetrol)
50
Chevron
55
Occidental
58
Petrobras Colombia/Perenco
61
Sinochem
64
Pacific Rubiales Colombia
67
ExxonMobil Colombia
72
Other Summaries
75
Regional Overview
87
Latin America Overview
87
Global Industry Overview
95
Global Energy Market Overview
95
Appendix
103
Latin America - Regional Appendix
103
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d
103
Table: Oil Consumption - Long Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
104
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
104
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
105
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
106
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
106
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
107
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
107
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
108
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
109
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
109
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
110
Colombia - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
111
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2012-2017
111
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2018-2023
112
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2012-2017
113
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2018-2023
114
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2012-2017
115
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2018-2023
116
Table: LPG Production, Consumption & Net Exports, 2012-2017
117
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2018-2023
117
Glossary
119
Table: Glossary Of Terms
119
Methodology
121
Industry Forecast Methodology
121
Source
123
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
123
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
125
Table: Weighting
127

The Colombia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Colombia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Colombia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Colombian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Colombia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Colombian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Colombian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Colombia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc