Business Monitor International


Colombia Oil & Gas Report

Published 10 December 2014

  • 117 pages
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$1,295.00
Colombia Oil & Gas Report

BMI View :   Colombia's energy sector is approaching an inflection point over the next several quarters. While the past decade   has witnessed strong production growth due to improvements in the business   and security environment, we caution that the country will experience downward pressure on oil production over the longer term. The tendency toward smaller finds, as well as recent increases in pipeline attacks have begun to show signs of decreased investor interest in Colombia's resources, as witnessed in the 2014 licensing rounds. Given ongoing below and above-ground challenges, we maintain a cautious stance toward the future of Colombia's hydrocarbon productivity.

Headline Forecasts (Colombia 2012-2018)
  2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 962.6 1,022.0 1,004.5 1,029.7 1,055.5 1,082.0 1,103.9
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 325.8 332.3 332.3 361.2 372.3 395.4 404.7
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 322.8 329.2 339.5 350.5 362.3 375.2 390.2
Dry natural gas production, bcm 11.9 12.3 12.8 13.2 13.7 14.2 14.7
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 9.4 10.0 10.8 11.5 12.1 12.7 13.2
f = BMI forecast. Source: EIA, BMI

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The key trends and developments in the Colombian oil and gas sector are:

  • Colombia's attractive fiscal regime, favourable contract terms, and amenable regulatory environment spurred significant foreign investment into its oil sector over the past decade, helping to propel production growth over 70% since the mid-2000s. In 2013, production exceeded the 1mn barrels per day (b/d) threshold, and by 2018, we forecast crude, NGL and other liquids production to reach 1.1mn b/d. While we expect the upward trend to continue, we note production growth will slow unless the country is able to address its...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Colombia 2012-2018)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Colombia 2012-2017)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Colombia 2018-2023)
11
Upstream Projects
14
Table: Colombia Key Upstream Projects
14
Upstream Production - Oil
18
Table: Oil Production (Colombia 2012-2017)
18
Table: Oil Production (Colombia 2018-2023)
18
Upstream Production - Gas
24
Table: Gas Production (Colombia 2012-2017)
24
Table: Gas Production (Colombia 2018-2023)
24
Refining
27
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Colombia 2012-2017)
27
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Colombia 2018-2023)
27
Refined Fuels Consumption
30
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Colombia 2012-2017)
30
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Colombia 2018-2023)
30
Gas Consumption
33
Table: Gas Consumption (Colombia 2012-2017)
33
Table: Gas Consumption (Colombia 2018-2023)
33
Trade - Oil
36
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Colombia 2012-2017)
36
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Colombia 2018-2023)
36
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Colombia 2012-2017)
38
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Colombia 2018-2023)
38
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Colombia 2012-2017)
40
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Colombia 2018-2023)
40
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
41
Table: Gas Net Exports (Colombia 2012-2017)
41
Table: Gas Net Exports (Colombia 2018-2023)
41
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
45
Latin America - Risk/Reward Ratings
45
Table: Latin America Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
47
Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings: Reforms Prompting A Shake Up
47
Table: Latin America Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
53
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
53
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
55
Colombia Risk/Reward Ratings
55
Colombia Upstream Rating - Overview
55
Colombia Upstream Rating - Rewards
56
Colombia Upstream Rating - Risks
56
Colombia Downstream Rating - Overview
56
Market Overview
58
Colombia Energy Market Overview
58
Overview/State Role
58
Licensing And Regulation
59
Table: Royalty Rates
59
International Energy Relations
62
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
64
Refineries
64
Table: Refineries In Colombia
64
Service Stations
66
Oil Terminals/ Ports
66
Oil Pipelines
66
LNG Terminals
70
Gas Pipelines
71
Competitive Landscape
72
Competitive Landscape Summary
72
Table: Key Players - Colombian Oil & Gas Sector
73
Company Profile
74
Empresa Colombiana de Petr-leos (Ecopetrol)
74
Chevron
80
Occidental
83
Perenco/Petrobras Colombia
86
Sinochem
88
Pacific Rubiales Colombia
91
ExxonMobil Colombia
96
Other Summaries
98
Regional Overview
107
Latin America Overview
107
Global Industry Overview
116
Global Energy Market Overview
116
Appendix
122
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
122
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2012-2017
122
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2018-2023
123
Latin America - Regional Appendix
125
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d
125
Table: Oil Consumption - Long Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
126
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
126
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
127
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
128
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
128
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
129
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
129
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
130
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
131
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
131
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
132
Colombia - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
133
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption & Net Exports (Colombia 2012-2017)
133
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption & Net Exports (Colombia 2018-2023)
133
Colombia - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
134
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Colombia 2012-2017)
134
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Colombia 2018-2023)
135
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Colombia 2012-2017)
136
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Colombia 2018-2023)
137
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Colombia 2012-2017)
139
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Colombia 2018-2023)
139
Table: LPG Production, Consumption And Net Exports (Colombia 2012-2017)
140
Table: LPG Production, Consumption & Net Exports (Colombia 2018-2023)
141
Glossary
142
Table: Glossary Of Terms
142
Methodology
144
Industry Forecast Methodology
144
Source
146
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
146
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
148
Table: Weighting
149

The Colombia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Colombia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Colombia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Colombian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Colombia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Colombian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Colombian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Colombia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc