Business Monitor International


Colombia Oil & Gas Report

Published 08 October 2014

  • 117 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Colombia Oil & Gas Report

BMI View :  Colombia's energy sector is approaching an inflection point in the next several years. While the past decade  has witnessed strong production growth due to improvements in the business  and security environment, we caution that the country will experience downward pressure on production over the longer term. The tendency toward smaller finds, as well as recent increases in pipeline attacks have begun to show signs of decreased investor interest in Colombia's resources, as witnessed in the recent licensing auction. Given ongoing below and above-ground challenges, we maintain a cautious stance toward the future of Colombia's hydrocarbon productivity.  

Headline Forecasts (Colombia 2012-2018)
  2012e 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 962.6 1,022.0 1,004.5 1,029.7 1,055.5 1,082.0 1,103.9
Dry natural gas production, bcm 11.9 12.3 12.8 13.2 13.7 14.2 14.7
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 9.4 10.0 10.8 11.2 11.6 11.9 12.3
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 325.8 332.3 332.3 361.2 372.3 395.4 404.7
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 322.8 329.2 339.5 350.6 362.7 375.6 390.7
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI

Click here to explore data

The key trends and developments in the Colombian oil and gas sector are:

  • Colombia's attractive fiscal regime, favourable contract terms, and amenable regulatory environment have spurred significant growth in foreign investment into its oil sector, helping to propel production growth over 70% since the mid-2000s. In 2013, production exceeded the 1mn barrels per day (b/d) threshold, and by 2018, we forecast crude, NGL and other liquids production to reach 1.1mn b/d. While we expect the upward trend to continue, we note growth will likely slow unless the country is able to adequately address...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Table: Colombia Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
10
Table: Colombia Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
11
Oil Supply And Demand
13
Table: Colombia Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
13
Table: Colombia Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
13
Gas Supply And Demand
19
Table: Colombia Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
19
Table: Colombia Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
20
Refining And Oil Products Trade
23
Table: Colombia Refining - Production And Consumption, 2012-2017
23
Table: Colombia Refining - Production And Consumption, 2018-2023
24
Revenues/Import Costs
25
Challenges/Risks To Outlook
25
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
27
Latin America - Risk/Reward Ratings
27
Table: Latin America Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
29
Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings: Reforms Prompting A Shake Up
30
Table: Latin America Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
36
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Colombia Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Colombia Upstream Rating - Overview
38
Colombia Upstream Rating - Rewards
38
Colombia Upstream Rating - Risks
39
Colombia Downstream Rating - Overview
39
Market Overview
40
Colombia Energy Market Overview
40
Overview/State Role
40
Licensing And Regulation
40
Table: Royalty Rates
41
Government Policy
43
International Energy Relations
44
Table: Colombia - Upstream Projects Database
44
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
45
Oil Refineries
45
Table: Refineries In Colombia
45
Service Stations
46
Oil Terminals/ Ports
47
Oil Pipelines
47
LNG Terminals
50
Gas Pipelines
51
Competitive Landscape
52
Competitive Landscape Summary
52
Table: Key Players - Colombian Oil & Gas Sector
53
Company Profile
54
Empresa Colombiana de Petr-leos (Ecopetrol)
54
Chevron
60
Occidental
63
Perenco/Petrobras Colombia
66
Sinochem
68
Pacific Rubiales Colombia
71
ExxonMobil Colombia
76
Other Summaries
79
Regional Overview
88
Latin America Overview
88
Global Industry Overview
98
Global Energy Market Overview
98
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
100
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
101
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
102
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
104
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
104
Appendix
107
Latin America - Regional Appendix
107
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d
107
Table: Oil Consumption - Long Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
108
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
108
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
109
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
110
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
110
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
111
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
111
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
112
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
113
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
113
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
114
Colombia - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
115
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2012-2017
115
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2018-2023
116
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2012-2017
117
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2018-2023
118
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2012-2017
119
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2018-2023
120
Table: LPG Production, Consumption & Net Exports, 2012-2017
121
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2018-2023
121
Glossary
123
Table: Glossary Of Terms
123
Methodology
125
Industry Forecast Methodology
125
Source
127
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
127
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
129
Table: Weighting
130

The Colombia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Colombia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Colombia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Colombian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Colombia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Colombian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Colombian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Colombia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc