Business Monitor International


Colombia Defence & Security Report

Published 15 May 2014

  • 72 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Colombia Defence & Security Report

The most significant development regarding Colombia's defence and security situation during Q114 has been the ongoing peace talks between the government of President Juan Manuel Santos, and the left-wing FARC-EP guerrilla movement. However, violence has continued in the background, with the most prominent recent incident being the December 2013 attack by the government on a FARC position in central Colombia killing 10 rebels, including a senior commander.

The topics under current discussion in the peace negotiations are said to include: the FARC-EP's future participation in the democratic process; the issue of compensation being paid to the movement's victims; and any judicial proceedings which could be mounted against the FARC's membership. For its part FARC has put forward proposals for 'regulated' production and cultivation of certain illegal narcotics, fuelling speculation that it is at least partly involved in drugs trafficking.

The issue of drugs continues to elevate Colombia's status as a pivotal strategic location in the Americas. It has recently entered into a joint task force with Panama on its northern border, and continues to enjoy a strong defense relationship with the US, which is concerned by criminality and terrorism connected to the drugs trade.

Outstanding issues in 2014 include the procedure for drafting a new Colombian constitution and future judicial proceedings against security force personnel for past human rights abuses.

At the domestic level, President Santos is heading into a presidential election campaign against hawkish opposition which, if a winner, would likely end the on-off peace talks with FARC. However, BMI is expecting Santos to retain his position, although it may not be a first-round victory. Santos' victory will mean that the peace negotiations with the insurgents will be ongoing, although a peace deal is unlikely this year.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Colombia Security SWOT
8
Colombia Defence SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Defence Expenditure
13
Table: Colombia Defence Expenditure (USDmn) 2011 - 2018
14
Armed Forces
15
Table: Colombia Armed Forces ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 2001-2010
16
Table: Colombia Manpower Available For Military Service, 2011-2018 (aged 16-49 unless otherwise stated)
17
Defence Trade
17
Exports
18
Table: Colombia Defence Exports (USDmn) 2010 - 2017
19
Imports
19
Table: Colombia Defence Imports (USDmn) 2011-2018
20
Macroeconomic Forecasts
22
Table: Colombia - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %
26
Latin America Security Risk Ratings
27
Table: Latin America Regional Security Ratings
27
Table: Latin America State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
28
Colombia Security Risk Ratings
28
Market Overview
29
Colombia Defence Market Overview
29
Armed Forces
29
Domestic Industries
33
Weapons of Mass Destruction
34
Imports
34
Exports
34
Procurement Trends and Developments
35
Colombia Security Overview
35
Domestic Threats
36
Regional Threats
40
International Threats
40
Regional Overview
41
Americas Security Overview
41
Global Industry Overview
58
Global Political Outlook
58
Methodology
64
Industry Forecast Methodology
64
Sector-Specific Methodology
65
Sources
66
Security Risk Ratings Methodology
66
Table: Indicators And Weighting
67

The Colombia Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's Colombia Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Colombian defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Colombia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Colombian defence and security market.
  • Tar

    Coverage

    Global and Regional Political Outlooks

    A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.

    SWOT Analysis

    Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.

    Political Risk Assessment

    Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

    Security Risk Analysis

    BMI's proprietary Security Risk Rankings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.

    Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure

    The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.

    Domestic Security Overview

    The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.

    BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

    Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

    Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).

    Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).

    Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

    Company Profiles

    Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

    Domestic Security Overview

    The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting , along with potential risks in the coming year.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc