Business Monitor International


Colombia Defence & Security Report

Published 15 December 2014

  • 72 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Colombia Defence & Security Report

BMI View: T alks between the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) and the Colombian government continue on. However , with little real progress made on this front, along with the scandal of the FARC capturing and subsequently releasing a military General, these are unlikely to be resolved in the near future. BMI expects that the defence budget and the subsequent increase in GDP will be used mostly to improve/maintain the Colombian government's military and security forces rather than for new procurements .

As one of the highest military spenders in the Latin American region, BMI expects Columbia to spend USD13.9bn in defence spending for 2015. We forecast that this will steadily increase over the forecast period and beyond. However with peace talks continuing with the FARC, there is a slight chance that should the war end that there may be a stunt in the growth of the country's expenditure. For the remainder of the forecast period (2015-2019) we expect Colombia to spend an average of USD17.3bn annually on defence, with the defence budget reaching USD21.5bn by 2019.

The incumbent president of Colombia Juan Manuel Santos was re-elected in June 2014. Santos will serve a four-year mandate following his 51% majority vote win over his rival Oscar Ivan Zuluaga. Following the victory, peace negotiations with the FARC guerrilla group in Cuba are expected to continue. Although suspended for a short while they are set to continue and help re-establish the peace process. This has not, however, begun to ebb the tide of violence even though it has been promised by both sides. Shortly before the presidential election, Santos revealed that the government has also begun negotiations with the ELN insurgent organisation.

In May 2014 Santos announced that the peace talks with FARC had made significant progress saying that they had got 'the farthest we have ever come in trying to end the war'. FARC and government negotiators have reached agreement on...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Colombia Security SWOT
8
Colombia Defence SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Defence Expenditure
13
Table: Colombia Defence Expenditure (USDmn) 2011 - 2018
14
Armed Forces
15
Table: Colombia Armed Forces ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 2001-2010
16
Table: Colombia Manpower Available For Military Service, 2011-2018 (aged 16-49 unless otherwise stated)
17
Defence Trade
17
Exports
18
Table: Colombia Defence Exports (USDmn) 2010 - 2017
19
Imports
19
Table: Colombia Defence Imports (USDmn) 2011-2018
20
Macroeconomic Forecasts
22
Table: Colombia - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %
26
Latin America Security Risk Ratings
27
Table: Latin America Regional Security Ratings
27
Table: Latin America State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
28
Colombia Security Risk Ratings
28
Market Overview
29
Colombia Defence Market Overview
29
Armed Forces
29
Domestic Industries
33
Weapons of Mass Destruction
34
Imports
34
Exports
34
Procurement Trends and Developments
35
Colombia Security Overview
35
Domestic Threats
36
Regional Threats
40
International Threats
40
Regional Overview
41
Americas Security Overview
41
Global Industry Overview
58
Global Political Outlook
58
Methodology
64
Industry Forecast Methodology
64
Sector-Specific Methodology
65
Sources
66
Security Risk Ratings Methodology
66
Table: Indicators And Weighting
67

The Colombia Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's Colombia Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Colombian defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Colombia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Colombian defence and security market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Asia defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Asia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Global and Regional Political Outlooks

A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.

SWOT Analysis

Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.

Political Risk Assessment

Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

Security Risk Analysis

BMI's proprietary Security Risk Rankings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.

Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure

The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.

Domestic Security Overview

The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).

Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).

Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Domestic Security Overview

The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting , along with potential risks in the coming year.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc