BMI forecasts vehicle sales in Colombia to increase 6% in 2014 on the back of steady improvements in the economy and low base effects from declining sales in 2013. We expect this positive momentum to continue into 2015, predicting another year of 6% growth. In terms of Colombia's vehicle production, we forecast growth of 4.5% and 4.0% in 2014 and 2015 respectively.
In April 2014, the Colombian government announced plans to cut tariffs on imported autos components in a bid to make domestically-produced cars competitive with imported vehicles. The domestic autos industry is relatively nascent, relying chiefly on imported components and CKD assembly, with little high value-added manufacturing taking place in the country. BMI believes that, while the reduced tariffs may help reduce costs somewhat, a number of structural inefficiencies remain in the market, hindering automakers. These will therefore be unlikely to compete with imported vehicles for the time being.
A number of international auto manufacturers currently produce vehicles in Colombia. General Motors (GM), based in Bogotá, has an annual capacity of about 100,000 units and assembles some GM Korea vehicles from complete knock-down (CKD) kits. Renault, based in Medellín, with an annual capacity of 80,000, assembles CKD kits bought from Turkey, France, Spain and Brazil. Mazda Motor, also based in Bogotá, with a capacity of 15,000 units annually, builds up the 2, 3 and BT50 pickup trucks. German automaker Daimler's subsidiary Daimler Colombia operates a CKD assembly facility in Bogotá, producing the Mercedes-Benz Atego 1016 and Thomas Built EF 1723 bus chassis. Further, GM is currently building a stamping plant in Bogotá to make and export the body sections of the Aveo Sonic.
The Colombia Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Colombia Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Colombia.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Colombia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Colombian automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Colombian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Colombia.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.