Business Monitor International


Colombia Autos Report

Published 15 November 2013

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Colombia Autos Report

BMI forecasts vehicle sales in Colombia to decrease 3.2% in 2013, due to a 3.4% expected decline in the passenger car segment and a 2.9% drop in the CV segment.

In 2013, BMI forecasts a 13% drop in vehicle production on the back of a 15% decline in passenger car manufacturing and a 9.8% fall in CV output.

A number of international auto manufacturers currently produce vehicles in Colombia. General Motors (GM), based in Bogotá, has an annual capacity of about 100,000 units and assembles some GM Korea vehicles from complete knock-down (CKD) kits. Renault, based in Medellín, with an annual capacity of 80,000, assembles CKD kits bought from Turkey, France, Spain and Brazil. Mazda Motor, also based in Bogotá, with a capacity of 15,000 units annually, builds up the 2, 3 and BT50 pickup trucks. German automaker Daimler's subsidiary Daimler Colombia operates a CKD assembly facility in Bogotá, producing the Mercedes-Benz Atego 1016 and Thomas Built EF 1723 bus chassis. Further, GM is currently building a stamping plant in Bogotá to make and export the body sections of the Aveo Sonic.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
SWOT Analysis
6
Colombia Autos Industry SWOT
6
Colombia Political SWOT Analysis
7
Colombia Economic SWOT Analysis
7
Colombia Business Environment SWOT Analysis
8
Global Overview
9
Global Autos Update: Moderation Will Be Overarching Theme
9
PASSENGER CAR SALES, UNITS, 2012
9
Regional Overview
14
Bullish On Mexico
14
Comparative Weakness In The Productive Capacity Of Mexico's Regional Competitors
14
The Continued Recovery Of The US Vehicle Market
16
Positive Developments In The Domestic Supply Chain
17
A Number Of Trade Agreements And Quotas Exist Amongst Mexico's Large Neighbours
17
The Strength Of The Peso May Dampen Export Growth
18
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
20
Table: BMI Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos Industry In Americas
23
Industry Forecast Scenario
24
Sales
24
Table: Colombia Autos Sector - Sales, 2010-2017
24
Production
26
Table: Colombia Autos Sector - Production, 2010-2017
26
Trade
29
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
31
Table: Colombia - Economic Activity, 2008-2016
33
Competitive Landscape
34
Market Overview
34
Table: Top 10 Manufacturers By Sales (Jan-Oct 2012)
34
Passenger Cars
34
Table: Top 10 Best-Selling Passenger Cars (H112)
35
Commercial Vehicles
35
Alternative Fuels
36
Company Monitor
38
Company Profiles
40
Colmotores (GM)
40
Sofasa
42
Demographic Outlook
44
Table: Colombia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
45
Table: Colombia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
46
Table: Colombia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
47
Table: Colombia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
47
BMI Forecast Modelling
48
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
48
Sources
49

The Colombia Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Colombia Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Colombia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Colombia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Colombian automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Colombian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Colombia.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc