Business Monitor International


China Tourism Report

Published 13 May 2014

  • 56 pages
 
$1,295.00
China Tourism Report

BMI is forecasting very positive growth for the tourism industry in China based on solid domestic economic growth, improvements in the country's transport and accommodation infrastructure and its status as an increasingly popular holiday destination in the midst of the booming Asia Pacific region.

China has experienced several years of powerful domestic economic growth, and while the rate of GDP expansion is now expected to decline (though still remaining healthy) indications are that the middle class will continue to grow. This growth is resulting in outbound travel increasing in popularity, as more people have disposable income that can be used for holidays. As such we are forecasting substantial gains in the outbound travel market, with the number of annual outbound travellers expected to increase from 88.6mn in 2014 to an impressive 122.4mn in 2018 - an enormous potential market. China's domestic (internal) travel market also presents a valuable opportunity for growth, and the country already has a strong tradition of holiday taking within its own borders.

China's profile as a holiday destination in the competitive Asia Pacific region received a substantial boost from the hosting of the 2008 Olympic Games, which presented a new image of accessibility to the world. With a substantial range of attractions, including modern cities such as Shanghai and Beijing, cultural and historical attractions such as The Forbidden City and Great Wall of China, and various eco-attractions, China continues to attract new and returning visitors alike. As the country relaxes stringent visa requirements and improves air travel connections, we will see further increases in the inbound travel market throughout our forecast period.

The Chinese government is keen to expand tourism, and has been investing heavily in the industry (in excess of US$4bn a year since 2001 according to figures from the World Travel & Tourism Council), utilising marketing campaigns such as 'Beautiful China -...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Tourism
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Inbound Tourism
15
Table: China Inbound Tourist Arrivals, 2011-2018 ('000)
15
Table: China Top 10 Markets By Arrivals, 2011-2018 ('000)
16
Outbound Tourism
17
Table: China Outbound Tourism, 2011-2018 ('000)
18
Table: China Outbound Tourism Top 10 Destinations By Departures, 2011-2018 ('000)
20
Travel
20
Table: China International Tourism Receipts For Transport & Travel, 2011-2018
21
Table: China Methods Of Travel, 2011-2018
22
Hotels
23
Table: China Hotels & Restaurants Industry Value, 2011-2018
23
Table: China Hotel Accommodation, 2011-2018
24
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Table: Asia Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings
27
Security Risk/Reward Ratings
27
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
28
Market Overview
29
Table: China Key Infrastructure Projects
30
Table: Top 10 Global Hotel Groups Present In China
33
Company Profile
37
Jinjiang International Holdings
37
Global Industry Overview
39
Table: Global Arrivals
39
Table: Global Hotel Room Numbers
40
Global Assumptions
41
Table: Global Assumptions, 2013-2018
42
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2013-2016 (% change y-o-y)
43
Developed States
45
Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2013-2016
45
Emerging Markets
47
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2013-2016
48
Table: BMI Versus Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2014 And 2015 (%)
49
Demographic Forecast
50
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
51
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
52
Table: China's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
53
Table: China's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
53
Methodology
54
Industry Forecast Methodology
54
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
55
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
57

The China Tourism Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for tourist expenditure; government expenditure on tourism; passenger arrivals and departures by mode of transport, reason for travel, origin and destination; and the accommodation market.

BMI's China Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Chinese tourism industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent tourism industry forecasts for China to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Chinese tourism market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Chinese tourism sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in China.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

This contains a synopsis of our forecasts, and any changes, together with an overview of key trends and developments in the tourism industry, and an assessment of the impact of various economic and national factors which might affect the sector. It also covers new transport projects, new hotel developments, and acquisitions.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the tourism sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

Inbound tourism: Arrivals (‘000), arrivals growth (% y-o-y), arrivals by region, growth (% y-o-y), arrivals by country, growth (% y-o-y), top 10 countries based on arrivals, growth (% y-o-y).

Outbound tourism: Departures (‘000), growth (% y-o-y), departures by regional destination (‘000 and growth % y-o-y).

Travel: Methods of travel for arrivals (Air, Ship, Rail), (‘000) and (% growth y-o-y), international Tourism receipts for transport (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y), international Tourism receipts for travel items (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y).

Hotels: Hotel industry value (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y), (%GDP), (per capita), (per employee), number of hotels and like establishments (‘000), (growth % y-o-y), total overnight stays, (‘000), (growth % y-o-y), length of stay, occupancy rate (%), number of hotel rooms, (‘000), (growth % y-o-y).

Industry Risk Reward Ratings

BMI’s Tourism Industry Risk Reward Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (tour operators, tourism infrastructure investors, financial institutions) in the regional tourism market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

We also have Security Risk Reward Ratings which provide a detailed assessment of possible threats to the country (and by extenuation to the tourism industry), ranging from economic and political upheaval, to terrorist attacks and organised crime levels.

Market Overview

This contains a comprehensive overview of the tourism industry in the country, its overall value, the value of its hotels industry, trends in the hotels industry and any new developments. It also contains an evaluation of the top 10 global hotel groups’ presence in the country, which brands are present in which cities, the number of hotels and any planned developments and strategies. The Market Overview also considers the tourism infrastructure developments in the country, in particular transport infrastructure projects such as ports and airports. Tables are also included from our regularly updated Key Projects Database, which contain details of projects, their value, the time frame, their current status, the companies involved and their estimated completion dates.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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