Business Monitor International


China Tourism Report

Published 31 December 2013

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$1,295.00
China Tourism Report

BMI holds a very positive outlook on tourism in China, with a confluence of factors expected to result in increases across all of our key market indicators throughout our forecast period to 2018. Strong domestic economic growth, and increasingly affluent middle class, is boosting outbound travel, while a relaxation of visa requirements and improvement in connectivity is driving growth in inbound arrivals.

Several years of economic growth have led to an increase in the popularity of outbound travel from China, and while signs are that the massive rates of growth seen in recent years may not be repeated in 2014, we still expect to see substantial increases in outbound travel. By 2018, we expect the number of annual outbound travellers to reach 122.5mn. In addition to this, the tourism market is also boosted by high levels of domestic travel within the country's extensive borders.

Thanks to its multitude of tourist attractions, including cities such as Shanghai and Beijing, cultural and historical attractions such as The Forbidden City and Great Wall of China, and various eco-attractions, China is proving a perennially attractive global tourism destination. While 2012 saw slightly lower growth rates, a remnant of the global credit crunch, annual increases in arrivals have been impressive, and by 2018 we expect the number of arrivals to reach 45.0mn, driven largely by growth in arrivals from the Asia Pacific region.

Tourism in China receives a great deal of support from the government, with annual investment since 2001 in excess of US$4bn (according to figures from the World Travel & Tourism Council), helping to promote the country as a tourist destination worldwide.

As well as this investment, the tourism industry benefits from the country's well-developed transport infrastructure, with strong air, road and rail connections. With a solid foundation already in place, China's transport infrastructure can only improve, and we expect to see continued growth in air and...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Tourism
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Inbound Tourism
15
Table: China Inbound Tourist Arrivals, 2011-2018 ('000)
15
Table: China Top 10 Markets By Arrivals, 2011-2018 ('000)
16
Outbound Tourism
17
Table: China Outbound Tourism, 2011-2018 ('000)
18
Table: China Outbound Tourism Top 10 Destinations By Departures, 2011-2018 ('000)
20
Travel
20
Table: China International Tourism Receipts For Transport & Travel, 2011-2018
21
Table: China Methods Of Travel, 2011-2018
22
Hotels
23
Table: China Hotels & Restaurants Industry Value, 2011-2018
23
Table: China Hotel Accommodation, 2011-2018
25
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Table: Asia Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings
27
Security Risk/Reward Ratings
27
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
28
Market Overview
29
Table: China Key Infrastructure Projects
30
Table: Top 10 Global Hotel Groups Present In China
33
Company Profile
37
Jinjiang International Holdings
37
Global Industry Overview
39
Table: Hotel Water Consumption By Region (litres per guest per night)
41
Global Assumptions
45
Table: Global Assumptions, 2012-2018
46
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2012-2015 (% change y-o-y)
47
Developed States
48
Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2012-2015
48
Emerging Markets
50
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2012-2015
50
Table: BMI Versus Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2013 And 2014 (%)
52
Demographic Forecast
53
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
54
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
55
Table: China's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
56
Table: China's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
56
Methodology
57
Industry Forecast Methodology
57
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
58
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
60

The China Tourism Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for tourist expenditure; government expenditure on tourism; passenger arrivals and departures by mode of transport, reason for travel, origin and destination; and the accommodation market.

BMI's China Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Chinese tourism industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent tourism industry forecasts for China to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Chinese tourism market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Chinese tourism sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in China.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

This contains a synopsis of our forecasts, and any changes, together with an overview of key trends and developments in the tourism industry, and an assessment of the impact of various economic and national factors which might affect the sector. It also covers new transport projects, new hotel developments, and acquisitions.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the tourism sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

Inbound tourism: Arrivals (‘000), arrivals growth (% y-o-y), arrivals by region, growth (% y-o-y), arrivals by country, growth (% y-o-y), top 10 countries based on arrivals, growth (% y-o-y).

Outbound tourism: Departures (‘000), growth (% y-o-y), departures by regional destination (‘000 and growth % y-o-y).

Travel: Methods of travel for arrivals (Air, Ship, Rail), (‘000) and (% growth y-o-y), international Tourism receipts for transport (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y), international Tourism receipts for travel items (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y).

Hotels: Hotel industry value (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y), (%GDP), (per capita), (per employee), number of hotels and like establishments (‘000), (growth % y-o-y), total overnight stays, (‘000), (growth % y-o-y), length of stay, occupancy rate (%), number of hotel rooms, (‘000), (growth % y-o-y).

Industry Risk Reward Ratings

BMI’s Tourism Industry Risk Reward Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (tour operators, tourism infrastructure investors, financial institutions) in the regional tourism market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

We also have Security Risk Reward Ratings which provide a detailed assessment of possible threats to the country (and by extenuation to the tourism industry), ranging from economic and political upheaval, to terrorist attacks and organised crime levels.

Market Overview

This contains a comprehensive overview of the tourism industry in the country, its overall value, the value of its hotels industry, trends in the hotels industry and any new developments. It also contains an evaluation of the top 10 global hotel groups’ presence in the country, which brands are present in which cities, the number of hotels and any planned developments and strategies. The Market Overview also considers the tourism infrastructure developments in the country, in particular transport infrastructure projects such as ports and airports. Tables are also included from our regularly updated Key Projects Database, which contain details of projects, their value, the time frame, their current status, the companies involved and their estimated completion dates.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc