BMI View : The Chinese telecommunications industry is the biggest in the world in terms of existing size and growth potential , with the 1 . 2 bn mobile subscri ptions represent ing only a penetration rate of 8 7.3 % at the end of September 2013. There are substantial growth opportunities in rural regions , where markets are still untapped , and the arrival of MVNO operators should catalyse competition for these lower value subscribers. Mean while at the other end of the market, demand for 3G and 4G services is growing rapidly, particularly in urban areas . Domestic operators are tapping this trend, and with the liberalisation of the VAS segment foreign investors can now also gain exposure. There is however downside to this bullish outlook due to the heavy investment burden in the telecoms industry, a capability that could weaken if the broader economy deteriorate s .
The latest data from operators show the mobile market continued to expand in 9M13, with total subscriptions increasing to 1.209bn at the end of September 2013.
The decline in fixed-line subscriptions accelerated in 2013, with the total number falling 4% to a low of 267mn at YE13.
Fixed broadband still has strong growth momentum, with total subscriptions up 7.8% in 2013 to 188.9mn at YE13.
Key Trends And Developments
Regulatory developments of great significance for the mobile market occurred in late 2013 and early 2014. The licensing of MVNOs took place in December 2013 and January 2014, a development BMI expects to catalyse subscription growth as new players target underserved rural and low income consumer groups. MVNO licenses were awarded to 19 operators, including Suzhou Snail Digital Technology, Love Strickland, Changjian Times Communications, 35 Internet, Telling and Alibaba Group.
At the high end of the market, the provision of 4G LTE licenses to China Mobile, China Telecom and China Unicom in December 2013 is of greater significance....
The China Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of China's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.
BMI's China Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in China.
- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for China to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Chinese telecoms market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in China's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in China.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
Business Environment Ratings
BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Ratings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.
The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
- Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
- Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.
Market Data Analysis
Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:
- Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
- Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
- Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
- Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).
Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.