BMI View : The attractiveness of the Chinese telecommunications market rests on the size of the population and the growing interest in data services. 3G growth drives the mobile market and 4G is taking off quickly. The creation of a national infrastructure company will help rural growth for china Unicom and China Telecom, putting China Mobile at a greater disadvantage. Increased price competition through the introduction of MVNOs will weigh on ARPUs in addition to rate reductions earlier in the year. These moves give the sugge stion of an open market, but developments are still closely controlled by the government and the MIIT. However, a focus on development of internet access through t he 'Broadband China' strategy roadmap , unveiled in 2013 , will boost broadband coverage and speed in urban and rural regions .
Slower operator growth in 9M14 led to a downgrade to our forecast, with 100% penetration not expected until early 2016. We forecast 1.612bn connections by 2018.
The fixed-line market is declining faster than seen in previous years, as mobile services offer data alternatives. Our revised forecast expects the market to decrease to 232mn lines by 2018 with penetration at 16.3%.
Fixed broadband still has strong growth momentum and our forecasts expect 1bn connections in 2018.
Key Trends And Developments
The newly created China Communications Facilities Services Corporation (CCFSC) will start construction on 120,000 towers before the end of 2014, one of several moves to create a single network operator in China. CCFSC is a joint venture established between all three mobile operators. As operators face rising data usage, cutting costs in network deployment will considerably improve the outlook for China's mobile operators. China Unicom and China Telecom have much to gain from being able to access the rural infrastructure of the market leader, and we believe this will support growth over the longer term.
MVNOs have yet to create a...
The China Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of China's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.
BMI's China Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in China.
- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for China to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Chinese telecoms market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in China's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in China.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Rankings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
- Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
- Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.
Market Data Analysis
Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:
- Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
- Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
- Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
- Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).
Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.