Business Monitor International


China Shipping Report

Published 24 February 2014

  • 138 pages
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$1,295.00
China Shipping Report

While the outlook for China's traditional economic growth drivers such as heavy industry and real estate construction remains cloudy, the outlook facing the more consumer-focussed industries is relatively strong over the medium term. Overall, though, as the traditional sectors remain the dominant drivers of the economy, we remain below consensus in our real GDP growth outlook.

After a decade-long cycle of high commodities prices partly boosted by stellar demand growth in China, the ongoing slowdown of the country's economy and rebalancing away from metal-intensive manufacturing and construction sectors raises questions over the future of China's commodities demand and import needs, with a possible negative knock-on effect on dry bulk imports in particular. We also caution that the inevitable bursting of the ongoing credit bubble could serve to undermine the profitability of the consumer-focussed industries. We expect the economy to expand by 6.7% in 2014, but caution that there are downside risks to this forecast.

Headline Industry Data

  • 2014 Port of Shanghai tonnage throughput forecast to grow 6.1%, with container growth of 5.7% forecast for the year.

  • 2014 Port of Shenzhen container throughput forecast to grow 2.4%, with average growth of 2.3% during our forecast period.

  • 2014 real trade growth forecast at 7.23% - a considerable increase from 2012's estimated 2.51%.

Key Industry Trends

Ningbo's Intermodal Strategy Pays Off : Ningbo-Zhoushan's strategy to develop intermodal links with the developing manufacturing hubs in China's hinterland is paying dividends, with growth in the sector boosting the port's container throughput.

Chinese Ports Register 7.3% Rise In Container Throughput : China-wide maritime ports registered a 7.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) rise in container throughput to 173mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in January-November. Seaports managed to handle 155mn TEUs in the same period, representing a rise of 7.5% y-o-y. River port volumes...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Shipping
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Port Of Shanghai Throughput
14
Port Of Shenzhen Throughput
18
Table: Major Port Data
21
Table: Trade Overview
24
Table: Key Trade Indicators
25
Table: Main Import Partners, 2004-2012
27
Table: Main Export Destinations, 2004-2012
28
Market Overview
29
China Container Shipping Market Overview
29
Industry Trends And Developments
36
Company Profile
43
Sinotrans
43
COSCO - Dry Bulk
48
China Shipping Container Line (CSCL)
55
Shipping - Global Industry View
63
Container Demand: Growth Outlook To Bolster 2014 Box Volumes
63
Container Supply: Overcapacity To Remain An Issue In 2014
73
Container Rates: Volatile As Demand Ticks Up, But Oversupply Remains
82
Table: Shipping Lines' Agents Offices Raided In Russia
87
Global Company Strategy
90
Maersk Line
90
Mediterranean Shipping Company
100
CMA CGM
106
Evergreen Line
115
COSCO Container Lines Company
123
Macroeconomic Forecast
129
Economic Analysis
129
Table: China - Economic Activity
134
Demographic Forecast
135
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
136
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
137
Table: China's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
138
Table: China's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
138

The China Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in China.

BMI's China Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in China.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for China to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Chinese shipping market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in China through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Market Overview

Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).

Company Profiles

Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc