Business Monitor International


China Shipping Report

Published 20 November 2014

  • 138 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
China Shipping Report

BMI View: We maintain our cautious view for China's shipping sector. China's economic growth in the coming decade will be much slower than in the last, as the savings rate declines, the economic liberalisation process slows, and population growth falls. These dynamics will result in real GDP growth averaging 6.0% over the next decade as opposed to the 10.1% average seen over the past decade. Private consumption will be a major outperformer, averaging growth of 8.1% and rising in importance as a share of GDP. As a result, while the outlook for China's traditional economic growth drivers such as heavy industry and real estate construction remains cloudy, the outlook facing the more consumer-focussed industries is relatively strong over the medium term.

After a decade-long cycle of high commodities prices partly boosted by stellar demand growth in China, the ongoing slowdown of the country's economy and rebalancing away from metal-intensive manufacturing and construction sectors raises questions over the future of China's commodities demand and import needs, with a possible negative knock-on effect on dry bulk imports in particular. We also caution that the inevitable bursting of the ongoing credit bubble could serve to undermine the profitability of the consumer-focused industries.

Despite the fact that real GDP growth of 7.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q314 was slightly better than consensus expectations of 7.2%, data continue to point towards an ongoing economic slowdown. We maintain our forecast for real GDP growth to slow further to 6.7% in 2015, and note that aggressive stimulus measures are off the table as long as the country's labour markets remain stable. 

Headline Industry Data

  • 2015 port of Shanghai tonnage throughput forecast to grow 2.6%, with container growth of 5.7% forecast for the year.

  • 2015 port of Shenzhen container throughput forecast to enlarge by 1.7%, with average growth of 1.8% during our forecast period.

  • 2015 real trade growth...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Shipping
9
Business Environment
11
Economic
12
Political
14
Industry Forecast
15
Port of Shanghai Throughput
15
Port of Shenzhen Throughput
22
Table: Major Port Data, 2010-2017
27
Table: Trade Overview, 2010-2017
30
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
31
Table: Main Import Partners (US$mn)
32
Table: Main Export Partners (US$mn)
32
Market Overview
33
China Container Shipping Market Overview
33
Industry Trends And Developments
42
Company Profile
46
Sinotrans
46
Global Industry Overview - Container Shipping
50
Demand: Global Box Outlook Brightening
50
Supply: Overcapacity To Remain As More Megas Saturate The Market
61
Table: Container Line Mega-Vessel Newbuild Plans
63
Rates: A Strong Start, But Rate Management Must Continue
66
Table: 2012 SCFI Europe Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
70
Table: 2012 SCFI USWC Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
70
Global Industry Overview - Dry Bulk Shipping
71
Demand: Stimulus Blip Playing Out, Bit For How Long-
71
Supply: Dry Bulk Fleet growth Slipping, But Overcapacity Still A Problem
76
Table: China Iron Ore Trade Partners Overview
82
Table: China Coal Trade Partners Overview
82
Global Industry Overview - Liquid Bulk Shipping
83
Improving Fundamentals In Dirty Tanker Market
83
Tonne-Mile Growth To Support Product Tanker Sector
86
LNG Boom To Stall In 2013
89
Global Company Strategy
92
Maersk Line
92
Mediterranean Shipping Company
101
CMA CGM
106
Evergreen Line
114
COSCO Container Lines Company
120
Hapag-Lloyd
127
Hanjin Shipping
133
APL
138
China Shipping Container Line (CSCL)
145
Mitsui OSK Lines
152
Macroeconomic Forecasts
157
The Recovery Is On-
158
-But Major Headwinds Blow
159
2012 Was Only A Warning Shot
160
Risks Are Weighted To The Downside
161
Table: China - Economic Activity
162
Demographic Forecast
163
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
164
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
165
Table: China's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
166
Table: China's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
166

The China Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in China.

BMI's China Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in China.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for China to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Chinese shipping market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in China through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Market Overview

Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).

Company Profiles

Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc