Business Monitor International


China Real Estate Report

Published 18 March 2014

  • 69 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
China Real Estate Report

BMI View: Real estate prices in China are wavering from historic stability and curbing measures are continu ing , particularly in major cities . T he overriding sentiment in the country's residential and commercial real estate market is that a slowdown is underway. Many developers are struggling with liquidity issues , and the increase of shadow banking assets in infrastructure and real estate is a significant risk to construction across all three of the real estate segments featured in this report: retail, office and industrial .

The China real estate report examines the commercial office, retail, industrial and construction sectors in the country from the perspective that the market, which has experienced exponential growth over recent years, is starting to succumb to the impending conflagration of market weakness.

The authorities have become increasingly concerned about the potential for accelerating real estate prices to enter bubble territory, and as a result, have rolled out a number of policies aimed at curbing speculative activity. However, the result of this has been limited and prices have continued to rise. The government has stated it will maintain controls on the property market in 2014.

In terms of the Chinese economy; it looks to be buckling under the weight of its credit binge and we have not many any significant changes to our China economic forecasts as our underlying assumption remain relevant. Our long-held view that the bounce in economic activity seen in early 2013 would fade by mid-year is playing out, and we continue to see negative shocks on the horizon as the fragile banking system buckles under a slowdown in credit growth.

Expectations for a robust recovery in 2014 are likely to be met with disappointment as the rebalancing process proves to be a long and drawn out affair. The Chinese growth slowdown is likely to negatively impact upon the real estate market during the rest of 2014, with real GDP growth of 7.1% posited, down...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Office
14
Table: Forecast Rents - (CNY per m2/month)
14
Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2010-2018 (%)
15
Retail
15
Table: Forecast Rents - (CNY per m2/month)
15
Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2010-2018 (%)
16
Industrial
16
Table: Forecast Rents - (CNY per m2/month)
16
Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2010-2018 (%)
17
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
17
Table: China Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2012-2017
17
Table: China Construction And Infrastructure Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
20
Macroeconomic Forecasts
30
Economic Analysis
30
Table: China - Economic Activity
34
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
35
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Table: Asia Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings
35
China - Risk/Reward Ratings
36
Market Overview
38
Shanghai
38
Beijing
39
Wuhan
40
Shenzhen
40
Office
41
Table: Net Yield, 2012-2013
41
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases - H213
42
Retail
42
Table: Historic Rents - 2011-2012 (CNY per m2/month)
44
Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%)
45
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases - H212
45
Retail Sales Indicators
45
Table: China Retail Sales Indicators, 2010-2017
45
Industrial
46
Table: Historic Rents - 2011-2012 (CNY per m2/month)
46
Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%)
47
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases - H212
48
Competitive Landscape
49
Company Profile
51
China Merchants Group/China Merchants Property Development
51
Gemdale Corporation
53
Poly Real Estate Group
56
Shanghai Industrial Development
58
Demographic Forecast
60
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
61
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
62
Table: China's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
63
Table: China's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
63
Methodology
64
Industry Forecast Methodology
64
Sources
65
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
65
Table: Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
67
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
68

The China Real Estate Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts of major construction projects in the residential and commercial markets, plus rental prices and yields in major cities. The report critically analyses the prospects for real estate within the broader economic and financial context - both domestic and global - via our econometrically-modelled and clearly explained banking and economic forecasts and follows this through to evaluate the implications for REITs.

BMI's China Real Estate Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the real estate industry in China.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent real estate industry forecasts for China to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Chinese real estate market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in China through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering real estate and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the real estate sector and within the broader political, financial, economic and business environment.

Market Overview

Overview of the real estate sector, including analysis of existing/planned real estate developments and emerging industry trends in the office, industrial and commercial sectors.

Market Analysis

Features detailed city-level data and analysis on rental prices, yields, contract terms and real estate availability with separate chapters covering the office, retail and industrial sub-sectors.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historical data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for the domestic real estate industry and for the local and global finance industry. Indicators include:

Real Estate: Office, retail and industrial real estate yields for all major cities (%); short-term forecasts on minimum and maximum real estate rental prices by sub-sector (US$ per square metre, and local currency per square metre)

Construction: Industry value (US$bn); contribution to GDP (%); employment (`000); real growth (%)

Economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (US$bn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against US$)

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Real Estate Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (real estate vendors, construction companies and financial investors) in the regional real estate market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc