BMI View: As prices are wavering from historic stability and curbing measures continue, particularly in major cities in China, the overriding sentiment in the country's residential and commercial real estate market is that a slowdown is under way. Many developers are struggling with liquidity issues and the prevalence of shadow banking assets in infrastructure and real estate is a significant risk to construction across the real estate segments. That said, there are some bright spots. The retail market is showing strength amid the uncertainty, and the office market remains buoyant in the country's top-tier cities.
The China real estate report examines the commercial office, retail, industrial and construction sectors in the country from the perspective that the market, which has experienced exponential growth over recent years, is starting to succumb to the impending conflagration of market weakness.
The authorities have become increasingly concerned about the potential for accelerating real estate prices to enter bubble territory, and as a result, have rolled out a number of policies aimed at curbing speculative activity. However, the result of this has been limited and prices have continued to rise. The government has stated it will maintain controls on the property market in 2014.
In terms of the Chinese economy; it looks to be buckling under the weight of its credit binge and we have not many any significant changes to our China economic forecasts as our underlying assumption remain relevant. Our long-held view that the bounce in economic activity seen in early 2013 would fade by mid-year is playing out, and we continue to see negative shocks on the horizon as the fragile banking system buckles under a slowdown in credit growth.
Expectations for a robust recovery in 2014 are likely to be met with disappointment as the rebalancing process proves to be a long and drawn out affair. The Chinese growth slowdown is likely to negatively impact upon the real estate...
The China Real Estate Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts of major construction projects in the residential and commercial markets, plus rental prices and yields in major cities. The report critically analyses the prospects for real estate within the broader economic and financial context - both domestic and global - via our econometrically-modelled and clearly explained banking and economic forecasts and follows this through to evaluate the implications for REITs.
BMI's China Real Estate Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the real estate industry in China.
- Benchmark BMI's independent real estate industry forecasts for China to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Chinese real estate market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in China through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering real estate and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the real estate sector and within the broader political, financial, economic and business environment.
Overview of the real estate sector, including analysis of existing/planned real estate developments and emerging industry trends in the office, industrial and commercial sectors.
Features detailed city-level data and analysis on rental prices, yields, contract terms and real estate availability with separate chapters covering the office, retail and industrial sub-sectors.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historical data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for the domestic real estate industry and for the local and global finance industry. Indicators include:
Real Estate: Office, retail and industrial real estate yields for all major cities (%); short-term forecasts on minimum and maximum real estate rental prices by sub-sector (US$ per square metre, and local currency per square metre)
Construction: Industry value (US$bn); contribution to GDP (%); employment (`000); real growth (%)
Economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (US$bn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against US$)
Business Environment Ratings
BMI's Real Estate Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (real estate vendors, construction companies and financial investors) in the regional real estate market.
The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.