Business Monitor International


China Power Report

Published 27 February 2014

  • 84 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
China Power Report

BMI View: Whil e China 's power sector continues to be in a league of its own, storm clouds are gathering on the horizon. According to BMI 's Country Risk analysts , t he Chinese economy is likely to slow down further over the coming months. Although n ewfound reform momentum h old s the potential to help the economy grow out from under its credit excesses , w e continue to believe that the hangover effects of China's economic stimulus are yet to be felt, and cooling credit growth is likely to reveal these effects over the coming quarters . This considered , a slowdown in power demand appears to be on the card s . Meanwhile, the country is trying to ease its reliance on coal, focus ing on cleaner forms of power generation . However, we still expect coal-fired capacity to grow in real terms and dominate the energy mix to the end of our forecast period.

In terms of fuel mix, conventional thermal sources play a key role and are expected to continue to dominate electricity generation over the coming years, as many projects under construction or planned will use coal or gas and as Chinese efforts in prospecting and exploiting conventional oil and gas resources are set to increase. While other sources of power will play increasingly important roles, China will remain reliant on coal for its power generation over the next decade. Energy poverty is a key concern in the country and coal will remain the only realistic option for providing cheap and abundant energy for the local population over the medium term. Yet, rising coal prices are once again a key threat to the profitability of power generation companies operating in the domestic segment and Chinese utilities have placed collective pressure on the government to moderate proposed restrictions on imported coal, highlighting the difficulties China has in balancing the interests of its mining and power sectors as growth slows.

Aside from short-term considerations, and while it should be kept...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
China Snapshot
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
10
China Power Forecast Scenario
11
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity
11
Table: China Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
11
Table: China Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
12
Table: China Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
14
Table: China Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
15
Electricity Consumption
22
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
22
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
22
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
23
Table: China Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
23
Table: China Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
23
Table: China Trade Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
23
Table: China Trade Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
24
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Table: Vietnam's Power Development Roadmap
28
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
31
China Power Risk/Reward Ratings
31
Rewards
32
Risks
32
Market Overview
33
Key Policies And Market Structure
33
Regulation and Competition
33
Sustainable Energy Policies
35
Pricing
37
China Power Projects Database
38
Table: Major Projects - Power
38
Competitive Landscape
48
Huaneng Power International
48
China Huaneng Group
49
China Datang Corporation
49
China Huadian Corporation
50
China Guodian Corporation
50
China Power Investment Corporation
50
China Southern Power Grid
51
State Grid Corporation
51
Company Profile
52
Huaneng Power International
52
Regional Overview
55
Asia Regional Overview
55
Aversion To Nuclear Energy Wearing Off
56
Coal To Grow, Supported By Imports
57
Glossary
59
Table: Glossary of Terms
59
Methodology
60
Industry Forecasts
60
Power Industry - Data Methodology
61
Generation and Consumption Data
61
Electricity Generating Capacity Data
62
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
63
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
65
Sources
66

The China Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The China Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for China to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks China's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in China
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:

Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.

Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview

This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Rankings

BMI's Power Risk/reward Rankings provide fully comparable rankings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc