Business Monitor International


China Power Report

Published 31 July 2014

  • 84 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
China Power Report

BMI View: China's power sector continues to be in a league of its own; and announcements by China Premier, Li Keqianq, that a series of large-scale power sector construction projects will be launched to 'stabilise growth and improve energy security' suggest that the sector will be benefit from China targeted stimulus approach. That said, with BMI's Country Risk analysts anticipating that the Chinese economy is likely to slow down further over the coming months, a slowdown in power demand appears to be on the cards. Meanwhile, the country is trying to ease its reliance on coal, focusing on cleaner forms of power generation. However, we still expect coal-fired capacity to grow in real terms and dominate the energy mix to the end of our forecast period.

In terms of fuel mix, conventional thermal sources play a key role and are expected to continue to dominate electricity generation over the coming years, as many projects under construction or planned will use coal or gas and as Chinese efforts in prospecting and exploiting conventional oil and gas resources are set to increase. While other sources of power will play increasingly important roles, China will remain reliant on coal for its power generation over the next decade. Energy poverty is a key concern in the country and coal will remain the only realistic option for providing cheap and abundant energy for the local population over the medium term. Yet, rising coal prices are once again a key threat to the profitability of power generation companies operating in the domestic segment and Chinese utilities have placed collective pressure on the government to moderate proposed restrictions on imported coal, highlighting the difficulties China has in balancing the interests of its mining and power sectors as growth slows.

Aside from short-term considerations, and while it should be kept in mind that China will remain in a league of its own, macroeconomic and sector-specific factors also point to an equally...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
12
China Snapshot
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (China 2013-2018)
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (China 2018-2023)
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
12
China Power Forecast Scenario
13
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2017)
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (China 2018-2023)
14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2017)
16
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (China 2018-2023)
16
Electricity Consumption
26
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2017)
26
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (China 2018-2023)
26
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
27
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2017)
27
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (China 2018-2023)
27
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2017)
27
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (China 2018-2023)
27
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Table: Fact Box: Vietnam's Power Development Roadmap
33
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
36
China Power Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Rewards
37
Risks
38
Market Overview
39
Key Policies And Market Structure
39
Regulation And Competition
39
Sustainable Energy Policies
41
Pricing
45
China Power Projects Database
46
Table: China Major Projects - Power
46
Competitive Landscape
63
Huaneng Power International
63
China Huaneng Group
64
China Datang Corporation
64
China Huadian Corporation
65
China Guodian Corporation
65
China Power Investment Corporation
66
China Southern Power Grid
66
State Grid Corporation
66
Company Profile
67
Huaneng Power International
67
Regional Overview
70
Asia Regional Overview
70
Table: Regional Electricity Generation Growth, % Chg Y-O-Y
78
Glossary
80
Table: Glossary Of Terms
80
Methodology
81
Methodology And Sources
81
Industry Forecast Methodology
81
Sources
84
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
84
Table: Power Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
85
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
87

The China Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The China Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for China to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks China's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in China
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:

Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.

Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview

This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Rankings

BMI's Power Risk/reward Rankings provide fully comparable rankings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc