Business Monitor International


China Oil & Gas Report

Published 17 April 2014

  • 206 pages
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$1,295.00
China Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: W hile China is increasingly dependent on energy imports - particularly gas - owing to rapid growth in its energy demand, there are considerable investment opportunities in its upstream segment. Concerted efforts by the government to improve the economics of gas production and conditions for private investment have allowed for some opening for greater private and foreign involvement. However, expansion opportunities in the downstream look to be increasingly limited as the government restrict s new short-term investments to battle both the problems of a potential overcapacity in the market, and the country's environmental problems.

The main trends and developments we highlight for China's oil and gas sector are:

  • Much of the China's crude oil production upside will come from increased output from fields yet to reach peak capacity, such as Tarim and Changqing. Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) measures will also help to maintain production levels at older fields, such as PetroChina's Daqing and Sinopec's Shengli. We expect Chinese production (less refining gains) to rise over the next few years, peaking at 4.40mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2017 before declining to 4.24mn b/d by 2023.

  • We expect refining growth to flatten out towards the end of our 10-year forecast period in 2023 especially as environmental pressures put a halt to further newbuild projects. In the next five years, refining capacity will rise from the completion of upgrades and newbuild projects to reach 13.8mn b/d in 2018 from the current 11.7mn b/d. Further expansion will be limited.

  • Weaker global economic growth, higher fuel prices and energy efficiency will contribute to slower oil consumption growth. Although we expect oil consumption to continue rising from an estimate of 10.7mn b/d in 2013 to 12.3mn b/d in 2018 and 13.3mn b/d by 2023, it will be at a slower rate of growth of about 2% per annum in the next 10 years. The shift towards a more consumer-driven growth in China over...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Oil And Gas Reserves
11
Table: China Proven Oil & Gas Reserves & Total Petroleum Data: Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2016
11
Table: China Proven Oil & Gas Reserves & Total Petroleum Data: Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
12
Table: Estimates For Resources In East China And South China Sea
14
Table: Major IOC Involvement In China's Shale Gas Exploration
18
Oil Supply And Demand
22
Table: China Oil Production & Net Exports: Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2016
22
Table: China Oil Production & Net Exports: Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
23
Refining And Oil Products Trade
26
Table: China Refining - Production & Consumption: Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2016
26
Table: China Refining - Production & Consumption: Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
26
Gas Supply And Demand
31
Table: China Gas Production, Consumption & Net Exports: Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2016
31
Table: China Gas Production, Consumption & Net Exports: Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
32
LNG
44
Table: Major LNG Supply Deals
45
Revenues
Revenues
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
46
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
47
Asia - Risk
Asia - Risk
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk
The Upstream Leaders
48
Resource-Rich Countries Hit By Country Structure
50
Table: Asia Upstream Sector Risk
Table: Asia Upstream Sector Risk
Downstream Support
52
Table: Asia O&G Downstream Risk
Table: Asia O&G Downstream Risk
China - Risk
China - Risk
China Upstream Rating - Overview
57
China Upstream Rating - Rewards
57
China Upstream Rating - Risks
57
China Downstream Rating - Overview
58
Market Overview
59
China Energy Market Overview
59
Overview
Overview
Government Policy
61
Licensing Rounds
66
Table: Winners Of Second Shale Gas Licensing Round
67
Table: Second Batch Of 2012 Open Blocks In Offshore China For Foreign Cooperation
68
International Energy Relations
70
Table: Key Chinese Investment In African Upstream
82
Table: Key Chinese Downstream Investment In Africa
84
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
85
Oil Refineries
85
Table: Refineries In China
85
Coal-To-Liquids (CTL) Plants
93
Oil Storage Facilities
94
Table: China's Strategic Petroleum Reserve
94
Table: China's Commercial Oil* Storage Capacity
95
Table: Commercial Crude Oil Storage Terminals In China
95
Oil Pipelines
96
LNG Receiving Terminals
98
Table: LNG Terminals In China
99
Gas Storage Facilities
106
Gas Pipelines
106
CBM Pipeline
110
Coal-To-Gas (CTG) Plants
110
Coal-To-Gas Pipeline
111
Competitive Landscape
112
Table: Key Players - Chinese Oil And Gas Sector
113
Table: Key Upstream Players
114
Table: Key Downstream Players
114
Company Profile
115
China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC)
115
PetroChina
121
Sinopec
128
China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC)
135
Shell (China)
143
BP China
147
ExxonMobil China
150
Husky Energy
153
Chevron
156
Total
160
Other Summaries
163
Regional Overview
166
Asia Overview
166
Energy Shifts
166
Pacific Leads Liquefaction Boom, With Challenges
169
Table: Expansion Of Liquefaction Capacity In Australia & PNG
170
LNG Demand Stays Buoyant
172
Unconventional Rescue
173
Refining Woes
177
Global Industry Overview
181
Global Energy Market Overview
181
Appendix
189
Asia - Regional Appendix
189
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
193
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
194
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
195
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
195
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
196
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
197
Glossary
198
Table: Glossary Of Terms
198
Methodology
200
Industry Forecast Methodology
200
Source
202
Risk
Risk
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk
Table: Weighting
206

The China Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for China including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's China Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Chinese oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for China to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Chinese oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Chinese oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in China.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc