Business Monitor International


China Oil & Gas Report

Published 14 July 2014

  • 206 pages
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$1,295.00
China Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: W hile China is increasingly dependent on energy imports - particularly gas - owing to rapid growth in its energy demand, there are considerable investment opportunities in its upstream segment. Concerted efforts by the government to improve the economics of gas production and conditions for private investment have allowed for some opening for greater private and foreign involvement. However, expansion opportunities in the downstream look to be increasingly limited as the government restrict s new short-term investments to battle both the problems of a potential overcapacity in the market, and the country's environmental problems.

The main trends and developments we highlight for China's oil and gas sector are:

  • Much of the China's crude oil production upside will come from increased output from fields yet to reach peak capacity, while enhanced oil recovery (EOR) measures will also help to maintain production levels at older fields. We expect Chinese production (less refining gains) to rise over the next few years, peaking at 4.4mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2017 before declining to 4.2mn b/d by 2023.

  • We expect refining growth to flatten out towards the end of our 10-year forecast period in 2023 especially as environmental pressures put a halt to further newbuild projects. In the next five years, refining capacity will rise from the completion of upgrades and newbuild projects to reach 13.8mn b/d in 2018 from the current 11.7mn b/d. Further expansion will be limited.

  • Weaker global economic growth, higher fuel prices and energy efficiency will contribute to slower oil consumption growth. Although we expect oil consumption to continue rising from 10.7mn b/d in 2013 to 11.8mn b/d in 2018 and 12.8mn b/d by 2023, it will be at a slower rate of growth of about 2% per annum in the next 10 years. The shift towards a more consumer-driven growth in China over the investment-intensive model it had pursued will also change the composition of oil products...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
9
SWOT
11
Industry Forecast
13
Oil And Gas Reserves
13
Table: China Proven Oil & Gas Reserves & Total Petroleum Data: Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
13
Table: China Proven Oil & Gas Reserves & Total Petroleum Data: Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
14
Offshore China
15
Table: Estimates For Resources In East China And South China Sea
16
Table: Offshore Discoveries In Recent Years
16
Table: Notable Offshore JVs
18
Coal-bed Methane (CBM)
19
Shale Liquids & Gas
19
Table: Recoverable Shale Gas Estimates In China
20
Table: Major IOC Involvement In China's Shale Gas Exploration
22
Oil Supply And Demand
28
Table: China Oil Production & Net Exports: Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
28
Table: China Oil Production & Net Exports: Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
29
Oil Consumption
32
Refining And Oil Products Trade
34
Table: China Refining - Production & Consumption: Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
34
Table: China Refining - Production & Consumption: Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
35
Gas Supply And Demand
40
Table: China Gas Production, Consumption & Net Exports: Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
40
Table: China Gas Production, Consumption & Net Exports: Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
41
LNG
54
Table: Major LNG Supply Deals
54
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
56
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
57
China - Risk/Reward Ratings
57
China Upstream Rating - Overview
57
China Upstream Rating - Rewards
57
China Upstream Rating - Risks
57
China Downstream Rating - Overview
58
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
58
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
59
The Upstream Leaders
60
Resource-Rich Countries Hit By State Involvement
62
Table: Asia Upstream Sector Risk/Reward Ratings
65
Downstream Support
65
Table: Asia O&G Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
70
Market Overview
71
China Energy Market Overview
71
Overview/State Role
72
Government Policy
74
Table: Offshore Production Royalty Structure
77
Licensing Rounds
81
Table: Winners Of Second Shale Gas Licensing Round
82
Table: 2013 Open Blocks In Offshore China For Foreign Cooperation
83
International Energy Relations
84
Table: Key Chinese Investment In African Upstream
99
Table: Key Chinese Downstream Investment In Africa
101
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
102
Oil Refineries
102
Table: Refineries In China
102
Coal-To-Liquids (CTL) Plants
110
Oil Storage Facilities
111
Table: China's Strategic Petroleum Reserve
111
Table: China's Commercial Oil* Storage Capacity
112
Table: Commercial Crude Oil Storage Terminals In China
112
Oil Pipelines
113
LNG Receiving Terminals
116
Table: LNG Terminals In China
116
Gas Storage Facilities
123
Gas Pipelines
124
CBM Pipeline
126
Coal-To-Gas (CTG) Plants
126
Coal-To-Gas Pipeline
127
Competitive Landscape
129
Competitive Landscape Summary
129
Table: Key Players - Chinese Oil And Gas Sector
130
Table: Key Upstream Players
131
Table: Key Downstream Players
131
Company Profile
132
China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC)
132
PetroChina
137
Sinopec
143
China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC)
150
Shell (China)
159
BP China
163
ExxonMobil China
166
Husky Energy
168
Chevron
171
Total
174
Other Summaries
177
Regional Overview
181
Asia Overview
181
The World's Largest Oil Guzzler
181
Tightening In The Downstream
185
Gas Market Potential Set To Outshine Oil
189
A Hot Market For LNG
193
The Centre Of The LNG Price Debate
196
Global Industry Overview
198
Global Energy Market Overview
198
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
200
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
201
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
202
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
204
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
204
Appendix
207
Asia - Regional Appendix
207
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
207
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
208
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
209
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
209
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
210
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
211
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
212
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
213
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
214
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
214
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
215
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
216
China - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
218
Table: China Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2012-2017
218
Table: China Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2018-2023
219
Table: China Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2012-2017
220
Table: China Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2018-2023
221
Table: China Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2012-2017
222
Table: China Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2018-2023
223
Table: China LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2012-2017
224
Table: China LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2018-2023
224
Glossary
226
Table: Glossary Of Terms
226
Methodology
228
Industry Forecast Methodology
228
Source
230
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
230
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
232
Table: Weighting
233

The China Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for China including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's China Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Chinese oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for China to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Chinese oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Chinese oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in China.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc