Business Monitor International


China Oil & Gas Report

Published 17 April 2014

  • 206 pages
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$1,295.00
China Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: W hile China is increasingly dependent on energy imports - particularly gas - owing to rapid growth in its energy demand, there are considerable investment opportunities in its upstream segment. Concerted efforts by the government to improve the economics of gas production and conditions for private investment have allowed for some opening for greater private and foreign involvement. However, expansion opportunities in the downstream look to be increasingly limited as the government restrict s new short-term investments to battle both the problems of a potential overcapacity in the market, and the country's environmental problems.

The main trends and developments we highlight for China's oil and gas sector are:

  • Much of the China's crude oil production upside will come from increased output from fields yet to reach peak capacity, while enhanced oil recovery (EOR) measures will also help to maintain production levels at older fields. We expect Chinese production (less refining gains) to rise over the next few years, peaking at 4.4mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2017 before declining to 4.2mn b/d by 2023.

  • We expect refining growth to flatten out towards the end of our 10-year forecast period in 2023 especially as environmental pressures put a halt to further newbuild projects. In the next five years, refining capacity will rise from the completion of upgrades and newbuild projects to reach 13.8mn b/d in 2018 from the current 11.7mn b/d. Further expansion will be limited.

  • Weaker global economic growth, higher fuel prices and energy efficiency will contribute to slower oil consumption growth. Although we expect oil consumption to continue rising from 10.7mn b/d in 2013 to 11.8mn b/d in 2018 and 12.8mn b/d by 2023, it will be at a slower rate of growth of about 2% per annum in the next 10 years. The shift towards a more consumer-driven growth in China over the investment-intensive model it had pursued will also change the composition of oil products...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Oil And Gas Reserves
10
Table: China Proven Oil & Gas Reserves & Total Petroleum Data: Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2016
10
Table: China Proven Oil & Gas Reserves & Total Petroleum Data: Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
11
Table: Estimates For Resources In East China And South China Sea
13
Table: Major IOC Involvement In China's Shale Gas Exploration
16
Oil Supply And Demand
20
Table: China Oil Production, Consumption & Net Exports: Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2016
20
Table: China Oil Production, Consumption & Net Exports: Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
20
Gas Supply And Demand
25
Table: China Gas Production, Consumption & Net Exports: Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2016
25
Table: China Gas Production, Consumption & Net Exports: Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
26
LNG
37
Table: Major LNG Supply Deals
38
Refining And Oil Products Trade
39
Table: China Refining - Production & Consumption: Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2016
39
Table: China Refining - Production & Consumption: Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
39
Revenues/Import Costs
43
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
43
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
44
China - Risk/Reward Ratings
44
China Upstream Rating - Overview
44
China Upstream Rating - Rewards
44
China Upstream Rating - Risks
44
China Downstream Rating - Overview
44
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
45
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Rewards Ratings
46
Upstream Hindrance
46
Crude Requirement
48
Gasifying Asia
49
Table: Asia O&G Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
54
Table: Asia O&G Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
55
Market Overview
56
China Energy Market Overview
56
Overview/State Role
57
Government Policy
58
Licensing Rounds
64
Table: Winners Of Second Shale Gas Licensing Round
65
Table: Second Batch Of 2012 Open Blocks In Offshore China For Foreign Cooperation
66
International Energy Relations
68
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
74
Oil Refineries
74
Table: Refineries In China
75
Coal-To-Liquids (CTL) Plants
82
Oil Storage Facilities
84
Table: China's Strategic Petroleum Reserve
84
Table: China's Commercial Oil* Storage Capacity
85
Oil Pipelines
85
LNG Receiving Terminals
87
Table: LNG Terminals In China
88
Gas Storage Facilities
95
Gas Pipelines
95
CBM Pipeline
98
Coal-To-Gas (CTG) Plants
98
Coal-To-Gas Pipeline
99
Competitive Landscape
100
Table: Key Players - Chinese Oil And Gas Sector
101
Table: Key Upstream Players
101
Table: Key Downstream Players
102
Company Profile
103
China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC)
103
PetroChina
108
Sinopec
113
China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC)
118
Shell (China) Ltd
124
BP China
127
ExxonMobil China
129
Husky Energy
131
Chevron
134
Total
137
Other Summaries
140
Regional Overview
143
Regional Energy Market Overview
143
Table: List of Selected LNG Liquefaction Terminals In Australia and PNG
143
Global Industry Overview
149
Global Energy Market Overview
149
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts & Bloomberg Analyst Consensus, Average Price (US$/bbl)
150
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts
156
Appendix
158
Asia - Regional Appendix
158
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d)
158
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
159
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d)
159
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
160
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d)
161
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
161
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm)
162
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
163
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm)
163
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
164
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm)
164
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
165
Glossary
166
Table: Glossary Of Terms
166
Methodology
168
Energy Industry
169
Cross checks
169
Sources
170

The China Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for China including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's China Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Chinese oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for China to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Chinese oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Chinese oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in China.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc