Business Monitor International


China Insurance Report

Published 25 November 2014

  • 71 pages
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$1,295.00
China Insurance Report

BMI View : We expect growth in China's insurance sector to remain on an uptrend in the coming years due to the under-penetrated nature of the industry. However, increasing saturation in tier-one cities will push insurers to expand into lower tier cities. The ongoing liberalisation of the healthcare sector will unleash new growth opportunities within the health insurance sub-segment.

We forecast total gross premiums to slowdown in 2015 after growing by strong double-digit rates in 2014. We anticipate growth in premiums to come in at 5.5% (in USD terms) in 2015 versus 15.3% in 2014. The slowdown in the market is inevitable after strong double-digit expansion in each of the past three years. Furthermore, it is in line with our Country Risk team's view that the ongoing weakness in the Chinese economy will continue in the coming months, which will inevitably weigh on premiums.

Among the BRICS, China has the second lowest life insurance density after India. This in itself attests to the still under-penetrated nature of the segment, which will manifest into growth opportunities for life insurers. Indeed, we expect life density to increase from USD132.7 per capita in 2015 to USD158.3 per capita in 2018. As with many other emerging markets, life insurance in China is slowly becoming a key conduit of organised savings - in a country where savings are consistently greater than investment.

We believe that the increasing saturation in tier-one cities will push life insurers to expand into lower tier cities. Furthermore, we see the ongoing urbanisation of the country acting as a tailwind for firms as they can expand into newly created cities to broaden their customer base. This leads us to forecast growth in the life segment to outperform the non-life segment over the 2015-2018 period. We expect gross life premiums to grow at an annual average of 6.7% (in USD terms) over the 2015-2018 period to reach USD225.2bn by 2018.

China's non-life insurance penetration is currently at...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Insurance
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Total Premiums Forecast
14
Total Gross Premiums
14
Table: Total Gross Premiums Written (China 2011-2018)
14
Total Claims
15
Table: Total Insurance Claims (China 2005-2012)
15
Total Assets
15
Table: Assets (China 2005-2012)
16
Life Premiums Forecast
17
Non-Life Premiums Forecast
19
Non-Life Premiums
20
Table: Gross Non-Life Premiums Written (China 2011-2018)
20
Non-Life Claims
20
Table: Non-Life Insurance Claims (China 2005-2012)
21
Non-Life Sub-Sector Forecast
22
Motor Vehicle And Transport Insurance
22
Table: Insurance Key Drivers, Autos (China 2011-2018)
22
Table: Insurance Key Drivers, Freight Tonnage (China 2011-2018)
24
Health Insurance
24
Table: Health Insurance (China 2011-2018)
25
Personal Accident Insurance
25
Table: Personal Accident Insurance (China 2011-2018)
26
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
27
Asia Pacific Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
27
Table: Asia Pacific Insurance Risk/Reward Ratings
27
Market Overview
29
Life Market Overview
29
Table: Life Insurance Market (USDmn) 2006-2013
31
Table: Life Insurance Market (%) 2006-2013
32
Non-Life Market Overview
34
Table: Non-Life Insurance Market (US$mn) 2006-2013
36
Table: Non-Life Insurance Market (%) 2006-2013
36
Company Profile
38
Ageas
38
AIA Group
42
American International Group (AIG)
47
AXA
50
China Life Insurance Co
54
China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co
57
Manulife Financial
60
PICC Property and Casualty Co
63
Ping An Insurance (Group) of China Limited
66
Prudential plc
69
Demographic Forecast
73
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
74
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
75
Table: China's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
76
Table: China's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
76
Methodology
77
Industry Forecast Methodology
77
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
80
Table: Indicators
82
Table: Weighting of Indicators
83

The China Insurance Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for the insurance sector. It examines industry developments, key growth drivers and risk management projections, including the macroeconomic situation, government policy, regulatory environment and the level of development and potential for growth, broken down by line. Leading insurers are profiled, covering premiums, products and services and competitive positioning.

BMI's China Insurance Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Chinese insurance industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent insurance industry forecasts for China to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in China's insurance market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in China through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, investments and macroeconomic developments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the Life and Non-Life segments, the evolving competitive landscape and business operational risks.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the insurance sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Outlook

Individual analysis of both Life and Non-Life insurance sector developments and prospects across developed states and emerging markets - supported by BMI's global industry growth forecasts. This is followed by an in-depth evaluation of region- and country-specific trends, focusing on BMI's country-by-country market growth data.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Insurance Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (Life and Non-Life) in the insurance market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry and economic indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Premiums: Total (US$mn), growth (% y-o-y), penetration (% of GDP), density (US$ per capita) for Life and Non-Life sectors, and total premiums.

Life: Data on gross written premiums for all major non-life segments (e.g. motor, fire, work).

Non-life: Data on gross written premiums for all major life segments (e.g. life, retirement).

Economic: Nominal GDP (US$bn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against US$).

Competitive Landscape & Rankings

Illustration of the insurance industry via rankings tables comparing gross written premiums by company (US$mn) and market share (%). This chapter also includes in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the leading insurance companies.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc