Business Monitor International


China Food & Drink Report

Published 01 September 2014

  • 126 pages
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$1,295.00
China Food & Drink Report

In China, we forecast private consumption to grow by an average of 8.0% out to 2018, as Beijing tries to re-balance the economy towards consumption and away from investment. Although this will be a very difficult balancing act, given that it could result in a sharp slowdown in overall growth, the Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang administration is somewhat more hawkish than previous leaders and will continue to press ahead with economic rebalancing. Important policies include raising minimum wages, liberalising the financial sector as well as the implementation of safety nets such as unemployment benefits and insurance.

Headline Industry Data

  • 2014 food consumption local currency = +9.7%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) forecast between 2013 and 2018 = +9.4%.

  • 2014 beer volume sales = +8.9%; CAGR forecast between 2013 and 2018 = +8.7%.

  • 2014 soft drinks volume sales = +7.4%; CAGR forecast between 2013 and 2018 = +6.7%.

  • 2014 mass grocery retail sales = +9%; CAGR forecast between 2013 and 2018 = +9%.

Key Company Trends

Meat Scandals To Pose Challenges For Foreign Chains : We noted in July 2014 that China's most recent meat scandal would pose a significant challenge to foreign meat processors/manufacturers as they had been generally spared from recent scandals and benefitted from a better reputation than their local counterparts. Yum! Brands will be the most affected by the scandal. We expect the Chinese government to tackle quality and safety standards more systematically, even if this will take years to be implemented fully.EUR450mn.

Beer Near- Term Prospects Better Than Spirits : We reflected in July 2014 on how China's well documented targeting of big ticket spirits as part of a wider crackdown on over-the-top gift giving has had a crippling effect on the sales and share prices of some of the key players in the luxury spirits space. The Chinese premium baiju producer Kweichow Moutai and France's Remy Cointreau (it is a major player in high-end cognac)...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Food
8
Drink
10
Mass Grocery Retail
11
Industry Forecast
13
Consumer Outlook
13
Food
15
Food Consumption
15
Table: Food Consumption Indicators, 2011-2018
16
Canned Food
16
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales, 2011-2018
17
Confectionery
17
Drink
19
Hot Drinks
19
Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales, 2011-2018
20
Alcoholic Drinks
20
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
21
Soft Drinks
22
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales, 2011-2018
23
Mass Grocery Retail
25
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2011-2018
26
Trade
27
Table: Trade Indicators, 2011-2018
28
Macroeconomic Forecast
29
Economic Analysis
29
Table: China - Economic Activity
33
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
34
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings
34
Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q314
36
Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings Q314 (scores out of 10)
39
China Risk/Reward Ratings
40
Market Overview
41
Food
41
Food Production
41
Instant Noodles
41
Confectionery
42
Trade
42
Agriculture
42
Dairy
43
Organics
45
Drink
46
Soft Drinks
46
Hot Drinks
48
Alcoholic Drinks
49
Mass Grocery Retail
54
Leading Players
55
Industry Trends And Developments
59
Food
59
Key Industry Trends And Developments
59
Drink
64
Key Industry Trends And Developments
64
Mass Grocery Retail
69
Key Industry Trends And Developments
69
Competitive Landscape
71
Table: Key Players In China's Food & Drink Sector
71
Table: Key Players In China's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
71
Company Profile
73
Hsu Fu Chi
73
Tingyi (Cayman Islands) Holding
76
China Foods Ltd
79
Nestl- China
82
China Mengniu Dairy
85
Tsingtao
87
Wahaha
90
Kweichow Moutai
93
Carrefour
95
Sun Art Retail Group
97
Global Industry Overview
99
Table: Food And Drink Core Views
111
Demographic Forecast
112
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
113
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
114
Table: China's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
115
Table: China's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
115
Glossary
116
Food & Drink
116
Mass Grocery Retail
116
Methodology
118
Industry Forecast Methodology
118
Sector-Specific Methodology
119
Sources
119
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
120
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
121
Table: Weighting
122

The China Food & Drink Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's China Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in China.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for China to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Chinese food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in China through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the retail market.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Food & Drink Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors, food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Food Forecasts

BMI's food chapter is divided into sections such as Meat, Fish, Confectionary, Dairy and Canned Foods, and provides insight into a market's food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

Industry Forecast Scenario - Historical data series and forecasts to end-2018 for growth of key indicators within a market's food industry. Including consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.

Industry Developments - A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.

Market Overview - An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food chapter, the drink section provides insight into the market's drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into a market's grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-201 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown for the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape & Profiles

Illustration of the industry via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. BMI analyses each company's market position, business strategies and investment potential.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc