Business Monitor International


China Defence & Security Report

Published 15 December 2014

  • 104 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
China Defence & Security Report

BMI View: China has continued its assertion of dominance in the South China Sea over several incidents in the past year. This has raised tensions between its Asian neighbours as well as the U.S. and has even caused a standoff between militaries. Although China has begun to make political moves, deals and visits to ease these tensions, many speculate that these are more for show rather than sincere negotiations. Again, little is truly known about China's domestic situation due to its blockade against news leaving the country.

China's defensive position and plans are difficult to fully confirm due to China's secrecy on such matters. Like many aspects of its defence posture, China keeps its annual defence budget secret, nevertheless, it is possible to make an accurate estimate regarding what the country spends annually on defence. China is one of the worlds largest spenders on defence but its significant rivals, the U.S., claim that China still has the disadvantage in terms of size and quality of equipment.

As we enter 2015, China has had a tempestuous year with several incidents causing tensions and aggressive responses in regards to not only the South China Sea but China's alleged cyber attacks against American security firms.

China has reassessed and reasserted its friendship with Russia as they have agreed to perform naval exercises in the Mediterranean Sea. This goes hand in hand with reports that China's naval strength (in terms of numbers) could overtake that of the U.S. by 2020. The tension between China and the U.S. has become increasingly tense over the past few years and this agreement with Russia has done nothing but add fuel to that fire. The agreement shows a joint venture that could further include military equipment from Russia and general production from China being exchanged; thereby helping to more extensively arm the two countries in the process, a worry that these arms will be used in China's sovereignty disputes.

In regards to other...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
China Security SWOT
9
China Defence SWOT
12
Political
15
Economic
16
Business Environment
17
Industry Forecast
18
Defence Budget
18
Table: Defence Expenditure (China 2011-2018)
18
Table: Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP (China 2011-2018)
19
Armed Forces
20
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (China 2004-2011)
20
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service (China 2011-2018)
21
Defence Trade
21
Table: Defence Exports (China 2011-2018)
22
Table: Defence Imports (China 2011-2018)
22
Table: Defence Trade Balance (China 2011-2018)
23
Macroeconomic Forecasts
24
Economic Analysis
24
More Cities To Witness Price Declines
25
Government, PBoC Likely To Tweak Policies
27
Economic Reforms Another Headwind
27
Table: Economic Activity (China 2009-2018)
29
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
30
Asia Security Risk Ratings
30
Table: Asia Security Risk Ratings
30
Table: Asia State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
31
China Security Risk Ratings
32
Market Overview
33
China Defence Market Overview
33
Armed Forces
33
Domestic Industries
34
Procurement
38
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
42
China Security Overview
44
Domestic Threats
45
Regional Threats
50
International Threats
57
Company Profile
64
Chengdu Aircraft Company
64
China Aviation Industry Corporation
65
China National Nuclear Corporation
66
China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation
68
China South Industries Group Corporation (CSG)
69
Regional Overview
70
North East Asia Security Overview
70
Global Industry Overview
81
Political Risk Analysis
81
Methodology
86
Industry Forecast Methodology
86
Sector-Specific Methodology
87
Sources
88
Security Risk Ratings Methodology
88
Table: Indicators And Weighting
89

The China Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's China Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Chinese defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on China to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Chinese defence and security market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Asia defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Asia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Global and Regional Political Outlooks

A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.

SWOT Analysis

Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.

Political Risk Assessment

Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

Security Risk Analysis

BMI's proprietary Security Risk Rankings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.

Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure

The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.

Domestic Security Overview

The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).

Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).

Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Domestic Security Overview

The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting , along with potential risks in the coming year.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc