BMI View: T he outlook for c onsumer electronics spending growth in China is strong over the medium term as incomes continue to grow and vendors tap the relatively low penetration in key device categories . An additional boost is the package of economic and social reforms announced by the government in late 2013, which should boost consumption , which had been effected to some extent by the cessation of government subsidies in 2013 . We forecast the market value will grow by 5.8 % in 2015 and we expect growth momentum will be maintained over the medium term with a CAGR of 5.2 % 2014-2018 . As incomes rise in China , consumers will spend an increasing proportion on consumer electronics devices, a trend which will be amplified by declining prices for tablets, TVs and smartphones .
Headline Expenditure Projections
Computer hardware sales: USD81.5bn in 2014 to USD86.4bn in 2015, +6% in US dollar terms. Tablets continue to be the outperforming device category, but in 2014 the popularity of phablets was beginning to erode growth momentum in the tablet market.
AV sales: USD41.0bn in 2014 to USD42.5bn in 2015, +3.5% in US dollar terms. The TV market is saturated and a trend of price erosion is limiting value growth, but there is significant potential in the games console market following the removal of the 13-year ban on the sale of such devices in China.
Handset sales: USD81.0bn in 2014 to USD86.4bn in 2015, +6.7% in US dollar terms. As a result of high smartphone penetration and intense competition between vendors we expect handset market value growth will continue to slow in 2015.
Key Trends & Developments
BMI expects the electronics production industry in China will benefit from liberalisation of the air cargo market, announced in September 2014 by the Civil Aviation Administration of China. The liberalisation will ease access to the sector, meaning that capacity restrictions will be lifted on international cargo flights and...
The China Consumer Electronics Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data covering both the manufacture and sale of consumer electronics products, critically analysing - and forecasting - the market dynamics affecting each sub-sector, including audio-visual, computers, mobile handsets, gaming and automotives electronics. Furthermore, the report analyses the domestic and global economic trends driving device demand and provides company rankings and competitive landscapes covering leading multinational and national consumer electronics companies and analysis of latest industry news and trends in China.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s China Consumer Electronics Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the consumer electronics industry in China.
- Benchmark BMI's independent consumer electronics industry forecasts for China to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Chinese consumer electronics market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in China through our reviews of latest industry trends and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence with company SWOT analyses.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering consumer electronics, major investments and projects.
Consumer Electronics Market
Analysis of the size of the domestic market for electronics products, with in-depth assessment and data covering the dynamics driving each sub-sector; audio-visual, computers, mobile phone handsets and gaming devices, as well as demand for automotives electronics.
Analysis and data of the domestic electronics manufacturing sector. We assess the regulatory and business operational issues facing manufacturers - including openness to foreign investment, infrastructure, IP issues and the global demand context - and their impact on the production of electronics goods, which is again broken down via market sub-sectors.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast, covering computers, communications and gaming devices. Indicators include:
Industry value (US$bn); population (mn); nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita, industrial production Index (% y-o-y ave.) unemployment % of labour force.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Consumer Electronics Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors and participants in the regional consumer electronics market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.