Business Monitor International


China Autos Report

Published 07 February 2014

  • 75 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
China Autos Report

Sales

According to the China Association Of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), Chinese auto sales increased 13.9% in 2013, to end the year at a record high of 21.98mn units. We maintain our bullish outlook on the market in 2014 and see the strong sales momentum in the last few months of 2013 spilling over into early 2014. Consumer confidence remains high and we see it buoying vehicle demand.

However, we remain firm on our sector slowdown view for 2014, which is best demonstrated by the slower growth of 9.1% in vehicle sales we forecast for the full year. The recent reforms announced by the Chinese government will have the effect of slowing economic growth in the short term as the economy rebalances away from an investment-led model towards one where private consumption makes up a bigger share. Consumer sentiment will take a hit in the latter part of 2014 as economic growth falters and this will certainly have a negative impact on vehicle sales.

That said, we are of the view that despite a more challenging 2014 outlook for the sector, passenger car sales will still hold up reasonably well compared with commercial vehicle (CV) sales as the boost to private consumption will ensure more resilient demand for cars. As such, we forecast the passenger car segment to continue outperforming the CV segment in 2014 just as it did in 2013.

Passenger Car Segment Will Outperform In The Long Term

As the Chinese economy rebalances over the coming years to one where consumption makes up a larger share, the outperformance of the passenger car segment vis-a-vis the CV segment will persist. Over our 2014-2018 forecast period, we expect car sales to grow 7.8% a year on average versus 4.4% a year average growth for the CV segment. Therefore, we believe there is greater value in passenger car brands, which are industry leaders, rather than pure play CV manufacturers.

Alternative Fuel

According to the CAAM, a total of 17,600 EVs were sold in 2013, which included 3,038 plug-in hybrids....

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Production and Sales
13
Table: China Autos Sector - Production And Sales
13
Alternative Fuel
14
Trade
15
Passenger Vehicles
19
Table: China Autos Sector - Passenger Cars
19
Commercial Vehicles
30
Table: China Autos Sector - Commercial Vehicles
30
Motorcycles
31
Table: China Autos Sector - Motorcycles
31
Company Developments
31
Suppliers
33
Industry Developments
33
Macroeconomic Forecasts
35
Economic Analysis
35
Table: China - Economic Activity
40
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
41
Asia Pacific - Risk/Reward Ratings
41
Table: Asia Pacific Autos Risk/Reward Ratings
44
Company Profile
45
Company Monitor
45
Shanghai GM
48
Volkswagen
50
Ford Motor
52
Daimler
54
Regional Overview
56
Table: Vehicle Sales 2013 (CBUS)
56
Global Industry Overview
61
Table: Passenger Car Sales November 2013 (CBUs)
61
Europe On Road To Recovery
61
Tax Hike Skews Japan's Outlook; US Hits Sweet 16
63
China Is BRIC Bright Spot
65
Demographic Forecast
68
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
69
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
70
Table: China's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
71
Table: China's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
71
Methodology
72
Industry Forecasts
72
Sector-Specific Methodology
73
Sources
73
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
74
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
75

The China Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s China Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in China.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on China to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Chinese automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Chinese automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in China.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Ratings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2017 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc