Business Monitor International


China Autos Report

Published 18 November 2014

  • 75 pages
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$1,295.00
China Autos Report

Auto Sales

According to the China Association Of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), vehicle sales in June 2014 rose 5.2% year-on-year (y-o-y), to 1,845,800 units, bringing sales for H114 to 11,683,100 units, an increase of 8.4% y-o-y. It is important to note, however, that sales in June grew at the smallest y-o-y pace since March 2013 and were dragged down by the commercial vehicle (CV) segment, which contracted 19.7% y-o-y in the same month. While we are maintaining our passenger car sales forecast for 2014, we are downgrading our CV sales forecast due to the segment's poor performance year-to-date.

Economic Rebalancing Biting Into CV Demand

As fixed-asset investment slows and infrastructure spending cools (in part due to Beijing's reticence towards large-scale stimulus to prop up economic growth), it is only natural that demand for CVs will be hit, given their usage in the various Chinese industrial sectors. Despite having a downbeat outlook on the segment for some time ( see 'Passenger Car Sales To Bring In A Strong 2013', October 17 2013), the sharp y-o-y decline in CV sales in the past two months has been more pronounced than expected.

We have also downgraded our outlook over the five-year forecast period. We now forecast CV sales to grow at an average of 3.9% over the 2015-2018 period versus 4.5% previously. Anecdotal evidence suggests that there are plenty of trucks lying idle to wait for goods to be transported, which makes us believe that the current cutbacks in CV demand are likely to be structural rather than cyclical as the government remains determined to cut excess capacity in certain heavy industries.

Concurrently, we have revised our CV production forecasts over the 2014-2018 period downwards as reduced demand in the domestic market will lead to automakers curtailing their output. 

Passenger Car Segment Will Outperform

As the Chinese economy rebalances over the coming years to one where consumption makes up a larger share, the outperformance of...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Production And Sales
14
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2018)
14
Alternative Fuel
17
Passenger Cars
32
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2018)
32
Commercial Vehicles
39
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2018)
39
Motorcycles
41
Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2018)
41
Company Developments
41
Suppliers
43
Macroeconomic Forecasts
49
Economic Analysis
49
More Cities To Witness Price Declines
50
Government, PBoC Likely To Tweak Policies
51
Economic Reforms Another Headwind
52
Table: Economic Activity (China 2009-2018)
54
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
55
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
55
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings - Asia-Pacific Autos
58
Company Profile
59
Company Monitor
59
Shanghai GM
62
Volkswagen
64
Ford Motor
66
Daimler
68
Regional Overview
70
Table: Vehicle Sales June 2014 (CBUS)
70
Global Industry Overview
76
Global Overview
76
Table: Passenger Car Sales May 2014 (CBUs)
76
Outperformers Boost European Outlook
76
Trucks Give North America A Lift
77
India Brings Relief To BRICs
79
Demographic Forecast
81
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
82
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
83
Table: China's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
84
Table: China's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
84
Methodology
85
Industry Forecasts
85
Sector-Specific Methodology
86
Sources
86
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
87
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
88

The China Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s China Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in China.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on China to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Chinese automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Chinese automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in China.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc