Business Monitor International


China Agribusiness Report

Published 21 February 2014

  • 218 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
China Agribusiness Report

BMI View: China's weight in the global agricultural sector is growing, as the country has an increasing impact on international production balances and prices. China will maintain a strong appetite for key commodities, and we highlight in particular the growth potential for sugar, dairy and meat products. High demand growth, strong government support and potential for investment and consolidation in these industries will help them outperform in the coming years. However, the agribusiness sector is going through challenging times, with GDP slowing, consumer trust in food safety dwindling, food ingredient prices rising, labour costs soaring and bank loan requirements for small-sized enterprises tightening. This is best seen in the probe led by the government into foreign dairy companies' price-fixing schemes, which led to a record fine for top producers.

Livestock Losing To Grains
China - BMI Agribusiness Market Value By Commodity (% Of Total)

Key Forecasts

  • Corn production growth to 201 7/18 : 18.1 % to 2 42.7 mn tonnes. Output expansion will be driven by steady improvements in corn yields, the probable adoption of GM corn in the coming years and sustained public support.

  • Pork consumption growth to 201 8 : 2 1.6 % to 6 5.4 mn tonnes. Pork will remain the meat of choice for Chinese consumers and consumption will be driven by revenue growth. Demand is likely to remain resilient despite the slowdown in the economy.

  • Sugar production growth to 201 7/18 : 9.5 % to 1 5.3m n tonnes. Production will be supported by improving yields and soaring domestic demand.

  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: US$5 43 . 5 mn in 201 4 (up 1.9% compared with 2013, growth forecast to average 3.0% annually between 2013 and 2017).

  • 201 4 real GDP growth: 7.1 % (down from 7.7% in 2013, forecast to average 6.1% between 2014 and 2018).

  • 201 4 consumer price inflation: 2.6 % y-o-y ave (same than in 2013, forecast to average 2.7% between 2014 and 2018).

  • 201 4

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Agribusiness
10
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Sugar Outlook
13
Table: China Sugar Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
14
Table: China Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
21
Dairy Outlook
22
Table: China Butter Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
23
Table: China Cheese Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
24
Table: China Milk Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
24
Table: China Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
24
Table: China Butter Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
33
Table: China Cheese Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
33
Table: China Milk Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
33
Table: China Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
33
Soybean Outlook
34
Table: China Soybean Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
36
Table: China Soybean Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
39
Rice Outlook
40
Table: China Rice Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
41
Table: China Grain Procurement Prices (CNY/tonne)
42
Table: China Rice Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
45
Grains Outlook
47
Table: China Barley Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
49
Table: China Corn Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
49
Table: China Wheat Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
49
Table: China Barley Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
56
Table: China Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
57
Table: China Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
57
Livestock Outlook
58
Table: China Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
60
Table: China Pork Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
60
Table: China Poultry Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
60
Table: China Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
74
Table: China Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
74
Table: China Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
74
Cotton Outlook
75
Table: China Cotton Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
76
Table: China Cotton Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
82
Imports Outlook
84
China Agricultural Imports Spree: Winners & Losers
84
Table: Select Countries - Exposure To Agricultural Exports To China, 2012
87
Table: China Future Agricultural Imports - Potential Winners And Losers
88
China Future Imports: Enduring Trends & New Trajectories
90
Table: China - Production & Consumption Forecast For Select Commodities (kt, Unless Otherwise Stated)
95
China Short Term Imports: Looming Headwinds
104
Table: CHINA - SELECT COMMODITY IMPORTS
117
Featured Analysis
119
China's Commodity Futures On The Ascent
119
Table: Global - Top Commodities Futures Contracts
127
Commodities Price Analysis
128
Monthly Grains Update
128
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
136
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
137
Monthly Softs Update
137
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
148
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
149
Upstream Analysis
150
Asia Machinery Outlook
150
Table: China Grain Public Production Support Programme (CNYbn)
151
Asia GM Outlook
157
Table: Philippines Corn Estimates
161
Table: Select Countries - GM Crops Use In 2012
162
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
163
Table: Global Benchmark Fertiliser Prices (US$/tonne FOB, reported prices at the end of quarter)
165
Downstream Analysis
170
Food
170
Food Consumption
170
Table: Food Consumption Indicators, 2011-2018
171
Canned Food
171
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales, 2011-2018
172
Confectionery
172
Drink
174
Hot Drinks
174
Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales, 2011-2018
175
Alcoholic Drinks
175
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
177
Soft Drinks
178
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales, 2011-2018
180
Mass Grocery Retail
182
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2011-2018
183
Regional Overview
185
Table: Select Countries - Biofuel Blending Mandates & Programmes
187
Competitive Landscape
191
Table: China - Major Agribusiness Companies
191
Company Profile
192
Golden Agri-Resources
192
Table: Select Companies - Land Bank, Tree Age Profile & Performance, 2012*
195
Table: Golden Agri-Resources - Financial Highlights
202
Charoen Pokphand Foods
202
Table: Charoen Pokphand Foods' Financial Highlights, 2008-2012
211
Demographic Forecast
212
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
213
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
214
Table: China's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
215
Table: China's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
215
Methodology
216
Industry Forecast Methodology
216
Sector-Specific Methodology
217

The China Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's China Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

Executive Summary

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in China.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2017 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The China Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc