Business Monitor International


China Agribusiness Report

Published 22 September 2014

  • 218 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
China Agribusiness Report

BMI View: China's weight in the global agricultural sector is growing, as the country has an increasing impact on international production balances and prices. China will maintain a strong appetite for key commodities, and we highlight in particular the growth potential for sugar, dairy and meat products. High demand growth, strong government support and potential for investment and consolidation in these industries will help them outperform in the coming years. However, the agribusiness sector is going through challenging times, with GDP slowing, consumer trust in food safety dwindling, food ingredient prices rising, labour costs soaring and bank loan requirements for small-sized enterprises tightening. This is best seen in the probe led by the government into foreign dairy companies' price-fixing schemes, which led to a record fine for top producers.

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2008-2018)

Key Forecasts

  • Corn production growth to 2017/18: 18.0% to 242.6mn tonnes. Output expansion will be driven by a steady improvements in corn yields, the probable adoption of GM corn in the coming years and sustained public support.

  • Pork consumption growth to 2018: 21.6% to 68.2mn tonnes. Pork will remain the meat of choice for Chinese consumers and consumption will be driven by revenue growth. Demand is likely to remain resilient despite the slowdown in the economy.

  • Sugar production growth to 2017/18: 9.1% to 15.2mn tonnes. Production will be supported by improving yields and soaring domestic demand.

  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD542.3mn in 2014 (up 0.9% compared with 2013, growth forecast to average 4.3% annually between 2014 and 2018).

  • 2014 real GDP growth: 7.3% (down from 7.7% in 2013, forecast to average 6.1% between 2014 and 2018).

  • 2014 consumer price inflation: 2.6% y-o-y ave (same than in 2013, forecast to average 2.7% between 2014 and 2018).

  • 2014 central bank policy rate: 6.00% ave (same than in 2013,...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Agribusiness
10
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Sugar Outlook
13
Table: China Sugar Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
14
Table: China Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
19
Dairy Outlook
21
Table: China Butter Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
22
Table: China Cheese Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
22
Table: China Milk Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
23
Table: China Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
23
Table: China Butter Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
30
Table: China Cheese Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
30
Table: China Milk Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
30
Table: China Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
30
Soybean Outlook
32
Table: China Soybean Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
34
Table: China Soybean Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
39
Rice Outlook
40
Table: China Rice Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
41
Table: China Grain Procurement Prices (CNY/tonne)
42
Table: China Rice Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
46
Grains Outlook
48
Table: China Barley Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
50
Table: China Corn Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
50
Table: China Wheat Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
51
Table: China Barley Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
60
Table: China Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
61
Table: China Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
61
Livestock Outlook
62
Table: China Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
64
Table: China Pork Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
64
Table: China Poultry Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
64
Table: China Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
77
Table: China Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
77
Table: China Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
77
Cotton Outlook
79
Table: China Cotton Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
80
Table: China Cotton Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
85
Imports Outlook
87
China Agricultural Imports Spree: Winners & Losers
87
Table: Selected Countries - Exposure To Agricultural Exports To China, 2012
90
Table: China Future Agricultural Imports - Potential Winners And Losers
91
China Future Imports: Enduring Trends & New Trajectories
93
Table: China - Production & Consumption Forecast For Select Commodities (kt, Unless Otherwise Stated)
98
Featured Analysis
107
China's Commodity Futures On The Ascent
107
Table: Global - Top Commodities Futures Contracts
115
Commodities Price Analysis
116
Monthly Grains Update
116
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & Forecasts
124
Monthly Softs Update
125
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
135
Upstream Analysis
136
Asia Machinery Outlook
136
Table: China Grain Public Production Support Programme (CNYbn)
138
Asia GM Outlook
144
Table: Select Countries - GM Crops Use In 2012
150
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
150
Table: Global Benchmark Fertiliser Prices (US$/tonne FOB, reported prices at the end of quarter)
154
Downstream Analysis
158
Food
158
Food Consumption
158
Table: Food Consumption Indicators, 2011-2018
159
Canned Food
159
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales, 2011-2018
160
Confectionery
160
Drink
162
Hot Drinks
162
Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales, 2011-2018
163
Alcoholic Drinks
163
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
164
Soft Drinks
165
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales, 2011-2018
166
Mass Grocery Retail
168
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2011-2018
169
Regional Overview
170
Table: Hourly Textile Industry Wages By Country (USD)
174
Table: Select Countries - Biofuel Blending Mandates & Programmes
176
Competitive Landscape
177
Table: China - Major Agribusiness Companies
177
Company Profile
178
Charoen Pokphand Foods
178
Table: Charoen Pokphand Foods' Financial Highlights, 2009-2013
187
Wilmar
188
Table: Financial Highlights 2009-2013
197
Demographic Forecast
198
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
199
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
200
Table: China's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
201
Table: China's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
201
Methodology
202
Industry Forecast Methodology
202
Sector-Specific Methodology
203

The China Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's China Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in China.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The China Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc