Business Monitor International


China Agribusiness Report

Published 19 November 2014

  • 218 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
China Agribusiness Report

BMI View:   China's weight in the global agricultural sector is growing, as the country has an increasing impact on international production balances a nd prices. I n particular , w e highlight the growth potential for sugar, dairy and meat products as China maintains its strong appetite for key commodities. High demand growth, strong government support and potential for investment and consolidation in these industries will help them outperform in the coming years. However, the agribusiness sector is going through challenging times as GDP slow s , consu mer trust in food safety dwindles , food ingr edient prices rise , labour costs soar and bank loan requirements for small-sized enterprises tighten. This is best seen in the probe led by the government into foreign dairy companies' price-fixing schemes, which led to a record fine for top producers.

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2005-2018)

Key Forecasts

  • Corn production growth to 2017/18: 18.0% to 242.5mn tonnes. Output expansion will be driven by steady improvements in corn yields, the probable adoption of GM corn in the coming years and sustained public support.

  • Pork production growth to 2017/18: 16.0% to 63.9mn tonnes. Increased production continues to be encouraged on the back of elevated local livestock prices. The increased availability of vaccinations and the ongoing commercialisation of the industry are also likely to boost output.

  • Sugar production growth to 2017/18: 9.1% to 15.2mn tonnes. Production will be supported by improving yields and soaring domestic demand.

  • BMI Universe Agribusiness Market Value: USD1,306bn in 2015 (up 4.9% compared with 2014, growth forecast to average 5.1% annually between 2014 and 2018).

  • 2015 real GDP growth: 6.7% (down from 7.3% expected in 2014, forecast to average 6.0% between 2014 and 2018).

  • 2015 consumer price inflation: 2.8% y-o-y ave (up from 2.6% in 2014, forecast to average 2.7% between 2014 and 2018).

  • 2015...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Agribusiness
10
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Sugar Outlook
13
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (China 2013-2018)
14
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (China 2008-2013)
21
Dairy Outlook
22
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (China 2013-2018)
23
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (China 2013-2018)
23
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (China 2013-2018)
24
Table: Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption (China 2013-2018)
24
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (China 2008-2013)
31
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (China 2008-2013)
31
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (China 2008-2013)
31
Table: Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption (China 2008-2013)
32
Soybean Outlook
33
Table: Soybean Production & Consumption (China 2013-2018)
35
Table: Soybean Production & Consumption (China 2008-2013)
39
Rice Outlook
39
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (China 2013-2018)
41
Table: China Grain Procurement Prices (CNY/tonne)
41
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (China 2008-2013)
44
Grains Outlook
46
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (China 2013-2018)
48
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (China 2013-2018)
48
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (China 2013-2018)
49
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (China 2008-2013)
58
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (China 2008-2013)
59
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (China 2008-2013)
59
Cotton Outlook
60
Table: Cotton Production & Consumption (China 2012-2018)
61
Table: Cotton Production & Consumption (China 2008-2013)
66
Livestock Outlook
67
Table: CHINA BEEF AND VEAL PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION, 2013-2018
69
Table: CHINA PORK PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION, 2013-2018
70
Table: CHINA POULTRY PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION, 2013-2018
70
Table: CHINA BEEF AND VEAL PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION, 2009-2013
81
Table: CHINA POULTRY PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION, 2009-2013
81
Table: CHINA PORK PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION, 2009-2013
81
Commodities Price Analysis
83
Monthly Grains Strategy
83
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
91
Monthly Softs Strategy
91
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
100
Upstream Analysis
101
Asia Machinery Outlook
101
Table: China Grain Public Production Support Programme (CNYbn)
103
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares
107
Asia GM Outlook
111
Table: Select Countries - GM Crops Use
117
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
117
Table: India - Fertiliser Subsidies, INR/kg
122
Downstream Analysis
124
Food
124
Food Consumption
124
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (China 2011-2018)
125
Canned Food
125
Confectionery
126
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (China 2011-2018)
127
Drink
129
Hot Drinks
129
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (China 2013-2018)
130
Alcoholic Drinks
131
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (China 2013-2018)
132
Soft Drinks
133
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (China 2013-2018)
134
Mass Grocery Retail
137
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (China 2013-2018)
138
Regional Overview
139
Table: Indonesia & Malaysia Palm Oil Refining Capacity & Utilisation Rate
141
Table: Selected Countries - Biofuel Blending Mandates & Programmes
145
Competitive Landscape
147
Table: China - Major Agribusiness Companies
147
Company Profile
148
Charoen Pokphand Foods
148
Table: Charoen Pokphand Foods' Financial Highlights, 2009-2013
157
Wilmar
158
Table: Indonesia - Minimum Wage ('000 IDR) & Palm Oil Production By Province, 2012- 2014
162
Table: Financial Highlights
166
Demographic Forecast
167
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
168
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
169
Table: China's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
170
Table: China's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
170
Methodology
171
Industry Forecast Methodology
171
Sector-Specific Methodology
172

The China Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's China Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in China.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The China Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc