Business Monitor International


Chile Power Report

Published 04 December 2014

  • 67 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Chile Power Report

BMI View:   Chile will remain one of the most attractive power markets in Latin America over the next 10 years, due to its strong electricity consumption figures, driven by the country's expanding consumer base and energy-intensive mining industry. Moreover, a solid business environment and liberalised electricity sector continue to contribute to our positive outlook for the country. While hydropower expansion will be reined in by regulatory and environmental hurdles, renewables and natural gas-fired power generation will experience considerable growth and create significant investment opportunities over our 10-year forecast period.

Although Chile's economic growth in 2014 and 2015 will be lower than previously expected (1.95% and 2.55% respectively, compared to 2.5% and 3.2%), we forecast real GDP to pick up over the medium term, increasing by an annual average rate of 4.19% between 2016 and 2023. Moreover, power demand from mining activities in the country will remain robust between 2014 and 2023, as we expect Chile's abundant reserves to continue attracting investment and boosting growth in the sector - although at a lower rate than in the past .Finally, we expect Chile's total population to increase from 17.77mn in 2014 to 19.04mn in 2023.

In light of these factors, we forecast electricity consumption to grow by an annual average rate of 4.51% between 2014 and 2023, reaching a total of more than 94 terawatt hours (TWh) by the end of our ten-year forecast period to 2023. Meanwhile, total power generation will increase by an annual average rate of 5.02% over the next decade, reaching 112TWh by 2023. 

Key Trends And Developments

  • In May 2014 the country's newly-elected president Michelle Bachelet announced a USD650mn investment plan aimed at reducing electricity costs (an ongoing source of concern for the mining industry) and fostering investment in unconventional energy sources. The energy strategy outlines plans to reduce marginal electricity costs on...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Chile Snaphot
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Chile 2013-2018)
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Chile 2018-2023)
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
10
Chile Forecast Scenario
11
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
11
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Chile 2012-2017)
11
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Chile 2018-2023)
12
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Chile 2012-2017)
14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Chile 2018-2023)
14
Electricity Consumption
23
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Chile 2012-2017)
23
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Chile 2018-2023)
23
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
24
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Chile 2012-2017)
24
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Chile 2018-2023)
24
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Chile 2012-2017)
24
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Chile 2018-2023)
24
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
25
Latin America Power Risk/Reward Ratings
25
Table: Latin America Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
30
Chile Power Risk/Reward Ratings
31
Rewards
31
Risks
32
Market Overview
33
Key Policies And Market Structure
33
Regulation And Competition
33
Sustainable Energy Policies
35
Pricing
35
Chile Power Projects Database
36
Table: Chile Major Projects - Power
36
Competitive Landscape
41
Transelec
42
Enersis/Endesa
42
Suez/Tractebel
43
AES
43
Colb-n
44
Pacific Hydro
45
Company Profile
46
Enersis
46
Regional Overview
49
Latin America Power Regional Overview
49
Glossary
55
Table: Glossary Of Terms
55
Methodology
56
Methodology And Sources
56
Industry Forecast Methodology
56
Sources
59
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
59
Table: Power Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
60
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
62

The Chile Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Chile Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Chile to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Chile's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Chile
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:

Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.

Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview

This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Rankings

BMI's Power Risk/reward Rankings provide fully comparable rankings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc