Business Monitor International


Chile Oil & Gas Report

Published 19 March 2014

  • 91 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Chile Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: The International Energy Agency reports that in 1990 the country was able to provide 14% of its oil needs, but heightening demand and no sizable discoveries within its borders mean Chile barely provides 2% of its needs from domestic production. It ' s the same story with natural gas : a very small resource base cannot hope to transform the country into one of oil and gas independence, but small discoveries of shale may p oint to an opening for some small explorers. The real opportunities are in liquefied natural gas ( LNG ) and crude as well as refined product importation. A new p residential administration with a centre-left agenda came into power in March 2014. While there is no hint of regulatory reassessment, the new administration knows it has to address the balance between rising demand and declining reserves.

The key trends and developments in the Chilean oil and gas sector are:

  • Oil: Our analysts have pegged current in-situ proven crude oil reserves in 2014 at only 147.8mn barrels (bbl), which is equivalent to 13 months' worth of consumption of refined products (370,600b/d). But while consumption is growing, reserves are declining, making Chile more and more reliant upon imported stock. Overall crude oil domestic reserve depletion rates are dropping by 1.5% per year. By 2023, Chile will have only 137.7mn bbl in reserves.

  • Gas: On the gas side of the ledger, it's the same story: little domestic stock and high domestic demand. We put Chilean in-situ domestic gas reserves at a modest 96.8bcm with annual local production in 2014 of 1.2bcm, or just 22% of the country's requirements to meet consumption requirements. By 2023 Chile will only be able to fulfil 15% of its gas requirements from domestic sources.

  • Refining: Empresa Nacional del Petróleo (ENAP)'s three refineries have a booked refining capacity of 226,000b/d with a current utilisation rate of 85% supplying only 61% of the country's needs. Our assessment is that the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Oil and Gas Reserves
10
Table: Chile Proven Oil & Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2011-2016
10
Table: Chile Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2017-2022
11
Oil Supply And Demand
12
Table: Chile Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
12
Table: Chile Oil Production And Net Exports, 2017-2022
13
Table: GeoPark Holdings In Chile, Summary By Block
14
Gas Supply And Demand
16
Table: Chile Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
16
Table: Chile Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
17
Table: Chile Refining Production And Consumption, 2012-2017
21
Table: Chile Refining Production And Consumption, 2018-2023
21
Revenues/Import Costs
23
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
24
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
25
Latin America - Risk/Reward Ratings
25
Table: Latin America Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Reforms Prompting A Shake Up
27
Table: Latin America Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
30
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
31
Chile - Risk/Reward Ratings
32
Market Overview
34
Chile Energy Market Overview
34
Overview
34
State Role
35
Licensing Rounds
36
International Energy Relations
36
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
38
Oil Refineries
38
Table: Refineries In Chile
38
Service Stations
39
Gas Pipelines
40
LNG Terminals
40
Table: LNG Terminals In Chile
41
Competitive Landscape
42
Competitive Landscape Summary
42
Table: Chile - Key Players
43
Table: Chile - Key Upstream Players
43
Table: Key Downstream Players
43
Company Profile
44
Empresa Nacional del Petr-leo (ENAP)
44
Compa--a de Petr-leos de Chile (Copec)
49
Petrobras
53
GeoPark Holdings
55
Other Summaries
59
Regional Overview
62
Latin America Overview
62
Global Industry Overview
70
Global Energy Market Overview
70
Appendix
78
Latin America - Regional Appendix
78
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d
78
Table: Oil Consumption - Long Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
79
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
79
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
80
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
81
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
81
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
82
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
82
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
83
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
84
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
84
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
85
Glossary
86
Table: Glossary Of Terms
86
Methodology
88
Industry Forecast Methodology
88
Source
90
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
90
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
92
Table: Weighting
94

The Chile Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Chile including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Chile Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Chilean oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Chile to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Chilean oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Chilean oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Chile.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc