Business Monitor International


Chile Oil & Gas Report

Published 18 November 2014

  • 91 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Chile Oil & Gas Report

BMI View:   Given a lack of below-ground potential, Chile suffers from a severe deficit of hydrocarbon supplies and a high dependence on imported energy feedstock. However, the country's leadership   recogni s es   the unlikelihood of a trend reversal, implementing a new national energy strategy to spur greater development of the sector where possible. The Bachelet administration has continue d Chile's tradition s of a liberal economy, regulatory transparency , and encouragement of foreign investment. Chile's most immediate opportunities lie in the expansion of their liquefied natural gas (LNG) import facilities as a means to meet growing domestic demand . On a longer-term basis, Chile is exploring the possibility of tapping is unconventional resources in the Magallanes region, offering a potential opportunity for sustained output growth. 

Headline Forecasts (Chile 2012-2018)
  2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 11.9 10.7 10.8 10.9 10.9 11.0 11.2
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 198.0 199.0 201.0 203.0 205.0 208.1 211.2
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 342.1 341.2 348.0 355.0 362.1 369.3 380.4
Dry natural gas production, bcm 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 5.0 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.4 5.7 5.9
f = BMI forecast. Source: EIA, BMI

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The key trends and developments in the Chilean oil and gas sector are:

  • Chile's attractive fiscal regime, favourable regulatory environment, and stable macroeconomic growth have been unable to spur significant investment into the country's oil and gas sector due to poor below-ground rewards compared to its regional peers. Chile has experienced varying degrees of output growth in the past several years, and while the country is making broad efforts to...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Oil And Gas Reserves
10
Table: Chile Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
10
Table: Chile Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
11
Oil Supply And Demand
13
Table: Chile Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
13
Table: Chile Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
13
Table: GeoPark Holdings In Chile, Summary By Block
14
Gas Supply And Demand
16
Table: Chile Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
16
Table: Chile Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
17
Table: Chile Refining Production And Consumption, 2012-2017
21
Table: Chile Refining Production And Consumption, 2018-2023
21
Revenues/Import Costs
24
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
24
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
26
Latin America - Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Table: Latin America Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
28
Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings: Reforms Prompting A Shake Up
29
Table: Latin America Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
34
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
35
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
36
Chile - Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Market Overview
39
Chile Energy Market Overview
39
Overview
39
State Role And The New National Energy Policy
40
Licensing Rounds
42
International Energy Relations
42
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
44
Oil Refineries
44
Table: Refineries In Chile
45
Service Stations
46
Gas Pipelines
47
LNG Terminals
47
Table: LNG Terminals In Chile
48
Competitive Landscape
49
Competitive Landscape Summary
49
Table: Chile - Key Players
50
Table: Chile - Key Upstream Players
50
Table: Key Downstream Players
50
Company Profile
51
Empresa Nacional del Petr-leo (ENAP)
51
Compa--a de Petr-leos de Chile (Copec)
57
Petrobras
61
GeoPark Holdings
63
Other Summaries
68
Regional Overview
71
Latin America Overview
71
Global Industry Overview
81
Global Energy Market Overview
81
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
83
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
84
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
85
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
87
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
87
Appendix
90
Latin America - Regional Appendix
90
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d
90
Table: Oil Consumption - Long Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
91
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
91
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
92
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
93
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
93
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
94
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
94
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
95
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
96
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
96
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
97
Chile - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
98
Table: Chile Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2012 -2017
98
Table: Chile Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2018 -2023
99
Table: Chile Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2012-2017
99
Table: Chile Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2018-2023
100
Table: Chile Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2012-2017
101
Table: Chile Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2018-2023
102
Glossary
104
Table: Glossary Of Terms
104
Methodology
106
Industry Forecast Methodology
106
Source
108
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
108
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
110
Table: Weighting
111

The Chile Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Chile including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Chile Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Chilean oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Chile to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Chilean oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Chilean oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Chile.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc