Business Monitor International


Chile Mining Report

Published 02 June 2014

  • 85 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Chile Mining Report

BMI View: We forecast modest mining sector growth of 1.2% on average per annum in Chile through to 2018 , a downgrade from our last forecast to better reflect the effect of weaker copper prices on the sector . We anticipate m ajor miners will continue to develop several large projects, as the country's political and business environments remain stable and the country possesse s significant mineral reserves. Yet elevated operational costs, regulatory changes, and subdued copper and precious metal prices will limit sector growth and should result in more conservative expansion and acquisition plans among major miners .

We expect copper production will remain the backbone of the Chilean mining sector for the foreseeable future, with copper accounting for nearly 60% of the country's total exports. The pipeline of copper projects and the country's global dominance in copper production will ensure the country's lead despite falling ore grades and more modest production growth. However, our forecast for both ample global refined copper supply to 2018 and slowing Chinese fixed asset investment growth, leads us to anticipate continued copper price declines over our five-year forecast period. Indeed, we see prices averaging lower on a y-o-y basis in 2014 at USD6,800/tonne. Despite weakness in 2013, copper prices remain elevated by historical standards, encouraging production for the time being as major miners and smelters maintain profitability.

Chile To Remain Top Copper Producer In Years Ahead
Chile - Share & Rank Of Global Mining Output, 2013

Large & Mid-Tier Players To Continue Investment

We expect state-owned Codelco will remain Chile's largest copper miner, and indeed the largest copper miner as measured by mine output, through 2018. It forecasts average annual investment of USD4-5bn to 2020 as it seeks to increase average annual copper output to 2.0mnt. Other large global diversified miners, including Glencore Xstrata, Anglo American, BHP...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Risks Continue To Rise In Face Promising Sector Potential
7
Precious Metals Key To Growth
7
Key Players
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Copper
10
Poor Energy Infrastructure To Force Prices Higher
12
Table: Chile - Major Copper Investment Projects
13
Rising Costs Threaten Investment
13
Table: Chile - Copper Production, 2009-2017
14
Silver
14
Table: Chile - Key Silver Mine Projects
16
Table: Chile - Silver Production
16
Gold
16
Diversification Opportunities For Wider Economy
17
Table: Chile - Major Gold Projects
18
Risks To Gold Sector Remain Elevated
18
Table: Chile - Gold Production
18
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
19
Public Opposition And Government Pressures
19
Chile: Sound Business Environment
20
United States: Permitting Issues Limit Growth Potential
21
Brazil: Iron Ore To Drive Mining Sector Growth
21
Canada: Continued Developed Country Mining Destination
21
Table: Americas Mining Risk/Reward Ratings
22
Peru: Protests Will Keep Pressure On Miners And Government
22
Argentina: Clear Potential Amid High Risks
23
Mexico: Positive Outlook For Precious Metals
23
Market Overview
24
Copper Dominates Mining Industry
24
Precious Metals Gaining Interest
26
Positive Business Environment To Remain
27
Table: Regional 2013 Country Risk Ratings
28
Risks To Outlook
28
Table: Chilean Mining Industry Value And Production Forecasts
29
Regulatory Development
30
Government Policies Favour Investment
30
Slim Possibility Of Additional Taxes
30
Commodities Forecast
31
Commodity Strategy - Monthly Metals Update
31
Iron Ore
32
Steel
34
Aluminium
35
Copper
36
Lead
37
Nickel
38
Tin
39
Zinc
40
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
40
Table: BMI Commodity Strategy Table
41
Competitive Landscape
42
Promising Firms
42
Table: Financial Data For Key Mining Firms Listed In Chile, FY2011
43
Company Profile
44
Anglo American
44
Table: Anglo American - Key Financial Data
48
Antofagasta
49
Table: Antofagasta - Financial Data
52
Codelco
54
Table: Codelco - Financial Data
56
Xstrata
58
Table: Xstrata - Key Financial Data
61
Regional Overview
63
Americas Mining Sector Outlook
63
1
63
2
64
3
65
Table: Key Central America And Caribbean Mining Projects
65
4
66
5
67
6
68
Global Industry Overview
70
Global Mining Outlook
70
1
70
Table: Recent Tax Increases
70
2
71
3
72
4
73
5
74
6
76
7
76
Methodology
78
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
78
Table: Mining Business Environment Indicators
79
Table: Weighting Of Components
80

The Chile Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Chile Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Chile.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Chile to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Chile's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Chile.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Mining Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (mining companies and support service providers) in the regional mining market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry rankings products.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:

  • Mining Industry: Industry size (US$mn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment ('000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (US$).
  • Output:Production volumes ('000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (US$mn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state .
  • Commodity Markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (US$) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), inflation (%), fiscal balance (% of GDP), trade balance (US$bn), current account (US$bn) and external debt (US$bn).

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc