Business Monitor International


Chile Autos Report

Published 28 October 2014

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$1,295.00
Chile Autos Report

Vehicle sales in Chile increased 15.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the first eight months of 2013, to 242,257 units. BMI forecasts a 10% increase over the course of the year. We expect sales to moderate somewhat in the latter part of the year, as we believe the country's weak private consumption story and weakness in the mining sector will start to filter through to the market, and higher base effects from strong H212 sales volumes will temper the growth rate.

We believe that the Chilean consumer is entering a period of slower growth over the medium term, which has partly informed our forecast of a 9% increase in 2014, a slight slowdown from 2013 levels, and our expectation for fairly tepid growth over the remainder of our 2017 forecast period. We forecast sustained positive growth in the market, but that this will be moderated by the country's relatively subdued consumer story. Indeed, we believe that much of this growth will come from the small size of the market, where growth is easier to sustain than in a larger, more mature sector, and is not necessarily a sign of strong consumer sentiment. A further weakening of the country's consumer outlook therefore poses a considerable downside risk to our longer-term forecasts.

As there is no longer any autos production in Chile, all vehicles sold are imported. Ongoing weakness in the Chilean peso will increase the price of imports in local currency terms and provides some downside risk to our sales forecasts.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
13
Business Environment
14
Industry Forecast
15
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Chile 2012-2018)
15
Trade
17
Alternative Fuels
17
Passenger Cars
19
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Chile 2012-2018)
19
Table: Chile - Top 10 Best-Selling Passenger Car Brands, 8M14
20
Commercial Vehicles
21
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Chile 2012-2018)
21
Table: Chile - Top 10 Best-Selling LCV brands, 8M14
22
Macroeconomic Forecasts
24
Table: Economic Activity (Chile 2009-2018)
29
Industry Risk Reward Index
30
Americas - Risk/Reward Index
30
Table: Americas Risk/Reward Ratings
32
Company Profile
34
Company Monitor
34
GM Chile
38
Automotores Gildemeister (Hyundai)
40
Regional Overview
42
Industry Trend Analysis
42
Table: Latin America Production Investment Jun-Sep 2014
42
Global Industry Overview
46
Table: The Internet Of Cars
46
Demographic Forecast
48
Demographic Outlook
48
Table: Chile's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
49
Table: Chile's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
50
Table: Chile's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
51
Table: Chile's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
51
Methodology
52
Industry Forecasts
52
Sector-Specific Methodology
53
Sources
53
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
54
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
55

The Chile Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Chile Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Chile.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Chile to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Chilean automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Chilean automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Chile.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.

BMI’s Autos Risk Reward index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company  developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country  investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Sources

The Autos Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc