Business Monitor International


Chile Autos Report

Published 14 November 2013

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Chile Autos Report

Vehicle sales in Chile increased 15.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the first eight months of 2013, to 242,257 units. BMI forecasts a 10% increase over the course of the year. We expect sales to moderate somewhat in the latter part of the year, as we believe the country's weak private consumption story and weakness in the mining sector will start to filter through to the market, and higher base effects from strong H212 sales volumes will temper the growth rate.

We believe that the Chilean consumer is entering a period of slower growth over the medium term, which has partly informed our forecast of a 9% increase in 2014, a slight slowdown from 2013 levels, and our expectation for fairly tepid growth over the remainder of our 2017 forecast period. We forecast sustained positive growth in the market, but that this will be moderated by the country's relatively subdued consumer story. Indeed, we believe that much of this growth will come from the small size of the market, where growth is easier to sustain than in a larger, more mature sector, and is not necessarily a sign of strong consumer sentiment. A further weakening of the country's consumer outlook therefore poses a considerable downside risk to our longer-term forecasts.

As there is no longer any autos production in Chile, all vehicles sold are imported. Ongoing weakness in the Chilean peso will increase the price of imports in local currency terms and provides some downside risk to our sales forecasts.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
SWOT Analysis
6
Chile Autos Industry SWOT
6
Chile Political SWOT
7
Chile Economic SWOT
8
Chile Business Environment SWOT
9
UK Boosts Europe, But Favourites Still Outperform
10
Table: Passenger Car Sales 8M12
10
Incentive Boom For Japan, US Powers On
11
Regional Overview
15
Bullish On Mexico
15
Comparative Weakness In The Productive Capacity Of Mexico's Regional Competitors
15
The Continued Recovery Of The US Vehicle Market
17
Positive Developments In The Domestic Supply Chain
18
A Number Of Trade Agreements And Quotas Exist Amongst Mexico's Large Neighbours
18
The Strength Of The Peso May Dampen Export Growth
19
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
21
Table: BMI Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos Industry In Americas
24
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
25
Table: Chile - Economic Activity, 2011-2016
27
Industry Forecast Scenario
28
Sales
28
Table: Chile Autos Sales - Historical Data And Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated), 2010-2017
28
Trade
29
Table: Chile Autos Imports - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
29
Table: Chile Autos Fleet Size and Car Density - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016
30
Competitive Landscape
31
Passenger Cars
31
Table: Chile - Top 10 Car Manufacturers (Passenger Cars, SUVs And LCVs) In 2011
32
Commercial vehicles
32
Table: Chile - Top 10 HCV And Bus Manufacturers In 2011
33
Alternative Fuels
33
Company Profiles
37
General Motors Company
37
Toyota Motor
38
Demographic Outlook
39
Table: Chile's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
40
Table: Chile's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
41
Table: Chile's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
42
Table: Chile's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
42
BMI Methodology
43
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
43
Sources
44

The Chile Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Chile Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Chile.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Chile to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Chilean automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Chilean automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Chile.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc