BMI View: T he future for telecoms operators lies in the expansion of content and encouraging consumers to use their mobile connections for a growing range of lifestyle needs. Regional market leader Tigo has been most active in launching its range of mobile financial services (MFS) , which are seeing rapid take up. Pay-TV is increasingly on the radar of operators in the region, although the market potential remains small. Mobil e forecasts show much slower growth across the board, with only Nicaragua offering any real growth potential.
New data from the Panamanian regulator show the market to have grown more slowly than previously expected and a decline in subscriptions in 2012. These revisions meet BMI's expectations that the market contains a large number of inactive subscriptions. We forecast minimal growth over 2014-2018
We upgraded our 3G/4G forecasts for Costa Rica after Claro and Movistar launched new services. We expect 3G and 4G connections to account for nearly 62% of connections by the end of our forecast period.
Key Trends And Developments
Discussions over the introduction of number portability (NP) in El Salvador are ongoing. Market leader Tigo has urged the regulator to introduce the service, even though it has the most to lose. SIGET, the country's telecoms regulator, also plans to monitor quality of service and has called for amendments to the Telecommunications Act to enable it to monitor compliance. Honduras launched its NP system in early May 2014.
Chinese telecoms operator Xinwei Telecom announced a delay to itsnetwork rollout. The company will begin testing equipment in October 2014. This will likely lead to a commercial roll out in 2014, rather than February 2014 as previously stated. The company had previously announced that it had reduced its planned one-year investment on the rollout to USD300mn from the previously stated USD700mn.
The Central America Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Panama, Guatemala, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Belize, Honduras's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.
BMI's Central America Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Panama, Guatemala, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Belize, Honduras.
- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Panama, Guatemala, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Belize, Honduras to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Panamanian, Guatemalan, Nicaraguan, Salvadoran, Costa Rican, Belizean, Honduran telecoms market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Panama, Guatemala, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Belize, Honduras's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Panama, Guatemala, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Belize, Honduras.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Rankings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
- Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
- Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.
Market Data Analysis
Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:
- Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
- Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
- Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
- Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).
Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.