Business Monitor International


Central America Food & Drink Report

Published 21 March 2014

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Central America Food & Drink Report

The region's economic trajectory remains divergent. Despite our expectations for slower real GDP growth in Panama in the next several years, it will remain the regional outperformer. On the other hand, we have a more mixed outlook for growth in the 'northern triangle' countries, with Guatemala likely to fare better than Honduras and El Salvador.

Headline Industry Data (regional averages)

  • 2013 per capita food consumption (US$) = +3.35%; forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2014 to 2018 = +4.18%.

  • 2013 alcoholic drink sales (litres) = +4.38%; forecast CAGR 2014 to 2018 = +2.30%.

  • 2013 soft drink sales (litres) = +5.25%; forecast CAGR 2014 to 2018 = +2.71%.

  • 2013 MGR sales (US$) = +4.43%; forecast CAGR 2014 to 2018 = +5.19%.

Key Company Trends

AmBev Expands In Guatemala: Drinks giant AmBev has announced a US$100mn investment in its Guatemalan infrastructure over the next three years. According to company officials, the investment is down to the ongoing growth potential of the Guatemalan drinks market as well as healthy growth in the sector in recent years. The investment will allow for greater innovation in the drinks market including the launch of new products and packaging.

Walmart Consolidates In Central America: In early 2014 retail giant Walmart announced that it is to invest MXN15bn in its Mexican and Central American operations in a bid to increase sales floor area and upgrade e-commerce technology. In Mexico, sales floor is expected to increase by 5% while in Central America it is expected to increase by 7.6%, signifying that the retailer's presence is to grow more substantially in Costa Rica, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua than in its traditional heartland of Mexico.

Key Risks To Outlook

Central America will remain heavily dependent on the performance of the US economy, which continues to be a major source for remittance flows and a destination for goods exports. The US accounts for over one-third of total exports in every...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT Analysis
9
Food
9
Drink
11
Mass Grocery Retail
13
Industry Forecast
15
Consumer Outlook
15
Food
20
Food Consumption
20
Table: Guatemala - Food Consumption Indicators, 2011-2018
21
Table: Costa Rica - Food Consumption Indicators, 2011-2018
21
Table: El Salvador - Food Consumption Indicators, 2011-2018
22
Table: Honduras - Food Consumption Indicators, 2011-2018
22
Confectionery
22
Meat
23
Table: El Salvador - Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018
23
Jams & Jellies
25
Table: El Salvador - Jams & Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018
25
Pasta
25
Table: El Salvador - Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018
26
Prepared Fish
26
Table: El Salvador - Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018
27
Table: Costa Rica - Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018
27
Oils & Fats
29
Table: Costa Rica - Soya Bean Oil Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018
29
Table: Guatemala - Soya Bean Oil Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018
31
Table: El Salvador - Margarine Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018
32
Dairy
32
Table: El Salvador - Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018
33
Drink
37
Hot Drinks
37
Table: Guatemala Coffee Sales, 2011-2018
38
Table: Costa Rica Coffee Sales, 2011-2018
38
Table: El Salvador Coffee Sales, 2011-2018
38
Table: Honduras Coffee Sales, 2011-2018
38
Alcoholic Drinks
39
Table: Guatemala Alcoholic Drink Sales, 2011-2018
39
Table: Costa Rica Alcoholic Drink Sales, 2011-2018
40
Table: El Salvador Alcoholic Drink Sales, 2011-2018
40
Table: Honduras Alcohol Sales, 2011-2018
40
Soft Drinks
41
Table: Guatemala Soft Drink Sales, 2011-2018
41
Table: Costa Rica Soft Drink Sales, 2011-2018
42
Table: El Salvador Soft Drink Sales, 2011-2018
42
Table: Honduras Soft Drink Sales, 2011-2018
43
Mass Grocery Retail
44
Table: Regional Sales Breakdown By Retail Format, %, 2012-2022
44
Table: Guatemala Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2011-2018
45
Table: Costa Rica Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2011-2018
45
Table: El Salvador Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2011-2018
46
Table: Honduras Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2011-2018
46
Trade
46
Table: Guatemala Food And Drink Trade Balance, 2011-2018
47
Table: Costa Rica Food And Drink Trade Balance, 2011-2018
48
Table: El Salvador Food And Drink Trade Balance, 2011-2018
48
Table: Honduras Food And Drink Trade Balance, 2011-2018
48
Economic Outlook
49
Economic Activity
49
Table: COSTA RICA - FISCAL POLICY
52
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
53
Latin America Risk/Reward Ratings
53
Table: Latin America Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q214
54
Table: Latin America Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings Q214 (scores out of 10)
56
Market Overview
58
Food
58
Drink
59
Hot Drinks
59
Soft Drinks
60
Alcoholic Drinks
61
Mass Grocery Retail
62
Industry Trends And Developments
64
Food
64
Key Industry Trends And Developments
64
Drink
68
Key Industry Trends And Developments
68
Coffee Growers Gaining Support
68
Mass Grocery Retail
72
Key Industry Trends And Developments
72
Competitive Landscape
75
Table: Key Players In Central America's Food & Drink Sector
75
Table: Key Players In Guatemala's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
76
Table: Key Players In El Salvador's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
76
Table: Key Players In Costa Rica's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
77
Table: Key Players In Honduras' Mass Grocery Retail Sector
78
Company Profile
79
Diana Food
79
CBC (formerly Central America Beverage Corporation,CABCORP)
81
SABMiller
83
Florida Ice And Farm
86
Walmart de M-xico y Centroam-rica
88
Global Industry Overview
91
Table: Food And Drink Core Views
100
Demographic Forecast
101
Table: Costa Rica's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
102
Table: Costa Rica's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
103
Table: Costa Rica's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
104
Table: Costa Rica's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
104
El Salvador
105
Table: El Salvador's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
106
Table: El Salvador's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
107
Table: El Salvador's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
108
Table: El Salvador's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
108
Guatemala
109
Table: Guatemala's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
110
Table: Guatemala's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
111
Table: Guatemala's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
112
Table: Guatemala's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
112
Honduras
113
Table: Honduras' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
114
Table: Honduras' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
115
Table: Honduras' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
116
Table: Honduras' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
116
Glossary
117
Food & Drink
117
Mass Grocery Retail
117
Methodology
119
Industry Forecast Methodology
119
Sector-Specific Methodology
120
Sources
120
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
121
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
122
Table: Weighting
123

The Central America Food & Drink Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Central America Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Honduras.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Honduras to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Guatemalan, Salvadoran, Costa Rican, Honduran food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Honduras through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the retail market.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors, food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Food Forecasts

BMI's food chapter is divided into sections such as Meat, Fish, Confectionary, Dairy and Canned Foods, and provides insight into a market's food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

Industry Forecast Scenario - Historical data series and forecasts to end-2018 for growth of key indicators within a market's food industry. Including consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.

Industry Developments - A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.

Market Overview - An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food chapter, the drink section provides insight into the market's drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into a market's grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-201 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown for the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape & Profiles

Illustration of the industry via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. BMI analyses each company's market position, business strategies and investment potential.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc