Business Monitor International


Central America Food & Drink Report

Published 21 March 2014

  • 130 pages
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Central America Food & Drink Report

The region's economic trajectory remains divergent. Despite our expectations for slower real GDP growth in Panama in the next several years, it will remain the regional outperformer. On the other hand, we have a more mixed outlook for growth in the 'northern triangle' countries, with Guatemala likely to fare better than Honduras and El Salvador.

Headline Industry Data (regional averages)

  • 2014 per capita food consumption (USD) = +4.82%; forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2014 to 2018 = +4.18%.

  • 2014 alcoholic drink sales (litres) = +4.41%; forecast CAGR 2014 to 2018 = +2.30%.

  • 2014 soft drink sales (litres) = +5.01%; forecast CAGR 2014 to 2018 = +2.71%.

  • 2014 MGR sales (USD) = +6.13%; forecast CAGR 2014 to 2018 = +5.19%.

Key Company Trends

Symrise Acquires Diana : In April 2014 German scents and flavourings group Symrise offered to acquire Diana Group in a deal worth EUR1.3bn. The acquisition will allow the German company to expand its position in the flavour and nutrition market, strengthen its backward integration and expand activities into the pet food market. Diana Food dominates the Central American snack and confectionery industries, controlling around 80% of the El Salvador market and 40% of the Central American market.

Output Recovery in the Making for Coffee : Our view for the decrease in Central American coffee production to be limited in 2013/14 despite the outbreak of disease has played out well. We estimate that overall regional output fell by only 2.5%, in contrast with initial forecasts for output to fall by 30-40%. We believe growth in the region will be supported by increased export demand from traditional markets such as the US, EU and Japan. Booming demand from emerging markets, especially in Asia, will also help. Domestic demand growth in Central America is also picking up, and we see strong potential there because of low base effects.

Key Risks To Outlook

Central America will remain heavily dependent on the performance of...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT Analysis
8
Central America Food Industry SWOT
8
Central America Drink Industry SWOT
9
Central America Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
10
Business Environment
11
BMI's Core Global Industry Views
11
Table: Core Views
17
Latin America Risk/Reward Ratings
18
Table: Latin America Q213 Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings
19
Table: Latin America Q213 Risk/Reward Sub Factor Ratings (scores out of 10)
21
Central America Risk/Reward Ratings
21
Regional Macroeconomic Outlook
22
Industry Forecast Scenario
24
Consumer Outlook
24
Food
28
Food Consumption
28
Table: Guatemala - Food Consumption Indicators, 2010-2017
29
Table: Costa Rica - Food Consumption Indicators, 2010-2017
29
Table: El Salvador - Food Consumption Indicators, 2010-2017
30
Table: Honduras - Food Consumption Indicators, 2010-2017
30
Confectionery
30
Table: El Salvador - Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, 2010-2017
31
Meat
33
Table: El Salvador - Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
33
Jams & Jellies
35
Table: El Salvador - Jams & Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
35
Pasta
36
Table: El Salvador - Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
36
Prepared Fish
36
Table: El Salvador - Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
37
Table: Costa Rica - Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
39
Oils & Fats
40
Table: Costa Rica - Soya Bean Oil Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
40
Table: Guatemala - Soya Bean Oil Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
41
Table: El Salvador - Margarine Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
41
Dairy
42
Table: El Salvador - Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
43
Drink
45
Hot Drinks
45
Table: Guatemala - Coffee Volume Sales, 2010-2017
46
Table: Costa Rica - Coffee Volume Sales, 2010-2017
46
Table: El Salvador - Coffee Volume Sales, 2010-2017
47
Table: Honduras - Coffee Volume Sales, 2010-2017
47
Alcoholic Drinks
47
Table: Guatemala - Alcoholic Drinks Volume Sales, 2010-2017
48
Table: Costa Rica - Alcoholic Drinks Volume Sales, 2010-2017
48
Table: El Salvador - Alcoholic Drinks Volume Sales, 2010-2017
49
Table: Honduras - Alcoholic Drinks Volume Sales, 2010-2017
49
Soft Drinks
50
Table: Guatemala - Soft Drink Volume Sales, 2010-2017
51
Table: Costa Rica - Soft Drink Volume Sales, 2010-2017
51
Table: El Salvador - Soft Drink Volume Sales, 2010-2017
51
Table: Honduras - Soft Drink Volume Sales, 2010-2017
52
Mass Grocery Retail
53
Table: Regional Sales Breakdown By Retail Format, %
53
Table: Guatemala - Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2010-2017
54
Table: Costa Rica - Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2010-2017
55
Table: El Salvador - Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2010-2017
55
Table: Honduras - Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2010-2017
56
Trade
57
Table: Guatemala - Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
57
Table: Costa Rica - Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
58
Table: El Salvador - Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
58
Table: Honduras - Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
58
Food
59
Key Industry Trends And Developments
59
Guatemala Strenghtens Exports
59
Florida Ice And Farm Building North American Exposure
59
Rising Interest In Ready-to-Eat Food
60
Pollo Tropical Launches First Franchised Restaurant In Costa Rica
60
Costa Rican Growers Must Adhere To New US Food Safety Law
60
Walmart Giving Producers A Hand
61
Market Overview
61
Drink
63
Key Industry Trends And Developments
63
Coffee Rust Outbreak Threatening Ouput Across the Region
63
Coca-Cola Trials Biogradable Bags In El Salvador
64
Costa Rican Farmers Setting Up Coffee Micro-Processing Plants
64
Starbucks Opens First Costa Rican Outlet
64
Honduras Struggles To Process Coffee Harvest
64
Market Overview
65
Hot Drinks
65
Soft Drinks
66
Alcoholic Drinks
66
Mass Grocery Retail
68
Key Industry Trends And Developments
68
Grupo Calleja Fails To Get Regulatory Approval To Acquire Europa SA
68
Walmart Launches New Discount Format In El Salvador
68
Walmart Investing In Expansion
68
Colombian Retailer Olimpica Moves Into Central America
69
Market Overview
69
Competitve Landscape
71
Table: Key Players In Central America's Food & Drink Sector
71
Table: Key Players In Guatemala's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
71
Table: Key Players In El Salvador's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
72
Table: Key Players In Costa Rica's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
73
Table: Key Players In Honduras's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
73
Company Profiles
74
Food
74
Diana Food
74
Drink
75
Central America Beverage Corporation (CABCORP/CBC)
75
SABMiller
77
Florida Ice And Farm
79
Mass Grocery Retail
81
Walmart Centroamerica
81
Demographic Forecast
83
Guatemala
83
Table: Guatemala's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
84
Table: Guatemala's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
85
Table: Guatemala's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
86
Table: Guatemala's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
86
Costa Rica
87
Table: Costa Rica's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
88
Table: Costa Rica's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
89
Table: Costa Rica's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
90
Table: Costa Rica's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
90
El Salvador
91
Table: El Salvador's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
92
Table: El Salvador's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
93
Table: El Salvador's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
94
Table: El Salvador's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
94
Honduras
95
Table: Honduras's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
96
Table: Honduras's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
97
Table: Honduras's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
98
Table: Honduras's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
98
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
99
Table: Rewards
99
Table: Risks
100
Weighting
100
Table: Weighting
100
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
101
Food & Drink
101
Mass Grocery Retail
101
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing
103
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
103
Sourcing
104

The Central America Food & Drink Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Central America Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Honduras.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Honduras to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Guatemalan, Salvadoran, Costa Rican, Honduran food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Honduras through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the retail market.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Food & Drink Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors, food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Food Forecasts

BMI's food chapter is divided into sections such as Meat, Fish, Confectionary, Dairy and Canned Foods, and provides insight into a market's food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

Industry Forecast Scenario - Historical data series and forecasts to end-2018 for growth of key indicators within a market's food industry. Including consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.

Industry Developments - A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.

Market Overview - An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food chapter, the drink section provides insight into the market's drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into a market's grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-201 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown for the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape & Profiles

Illustration of the industry via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. BMI analyses each company's market position, business strategies and investment potential.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc