Business Monitor International


Central America Food & Drink Report

Published 03 October 2014

  • 130 pages
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Central America Food & Drink Report

The region's economic trajectory remains divergent. Despite our expectations for slower real GDP growth in Panama in the next several years, it will remain the regional outperformer. On the other hand, we have a more mixed outlook for growth in the 'northern triangle' countries. While they will likely benefit from improved agricultural yields and stronger US demand for manufactured goods, Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador are still vulnerable to significant structural macroeconomic weaknesses. 

Headline Industry Data (regional averages)

  • 2014 per capita food consumption (USD) = +4.82%; forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2013 to 2018 = +4.18%.

  • 2014 alcoholic drink sales (litres) = +4.41%; forecast CAGR 2013 to 2018 = +2.30%.

  • 2014 soft drink sales (litres) = +5.01%; forecast CAGR 2013 to 2018 = +2.71%.

  • 2014 MGR sales (USD) = +6.13%; forecast CAGR 2013 to 2018 = +5.19%.

Key Company Trends

Ganaflor Obtains Licence for Essential Costa Rica Brand :  In summer 2014 Costa Rica's fresh fruit company Ganadera de la Flor (Ganaflor) obtained the licence to use the Essential Costa Rica national brand. Launched in September 2013, the label aims to promote the country's tourism, increase exports and draw foreign investment.

Chiquita Hit by Banana Marketing Lawsuit : In summer 2014 an NGO that works on developing sustainable water systems claimed that Chiquita Brands International uses 'unfair and deceptive' marketing for its bananas. US based Water and Sanitation Health (WASH) criticised the company's advertising practices because it claims that a supplier to Chiquita in Guatemala has polluted water supplies.

Key Risks To Outlook

Stronger than expected US growth could buoy the regional economies' real GDP and trade dynamics to a greater extent than we are currently forecasting. Indeed, stronger remittance inflows would boost regional private consumption growth, while a greater pickup in US consumption would buoy demand for manufactured goods. On...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
9
SWOT
11
Food
11
Drink
13
Mass Grocery Retail
15
Industry Forecast
17
Consumer Outlook
17
Food
21
Food Consumption
21
Table: Guatemala - Food Consumption Indicators, 2011-2018
22
Table: Costa Rica - Food Consumption Indicators, 2011-2018
22
Table: El Salvador - Food Consumption Indicators, 2011-2018
23
Table: Honduras - Food Consumption Indicators, 2011-2018
23
Confectionery
23
Meat
24
Table: El Salvador - Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018
24
Jams & Jellies
26
Table: El Salvador - Jams & Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018
26
Pasta
26
Table: El Salvador - Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018
27
Prepared Fish
27
Table: El Salvador - Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018
28
Table: Costa Rica - Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018
28
Oils & Fats
30
Table: Costa Rica - Soya Bean Oil Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018
30
Table: Guatemala - Soya Bean Oil Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018
32
Table: El Salvador - Margarine Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018
33
Dairy
33
Table: El Salvador - Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018
34
Drink
38
Hot Drinks
38
Table: Guatemala Coffee Sales, 2011-2018
39
Table: Costa Rica Coffee Sales, 2011-2018
39
Table: El Salvador Coffee Sales, 2011-2018
39
Table: Honduras Coffee Sales, 2011-2018
39
Alcoholic Drinks
40
Table: Guatemala Alcoholic Drink Sales, 2011-2018
40
Table: Costa Rica Alcoholic Drink Sales, 2011-2018
41
Table: El Salvador Alcoholic Drink Sales, 2011-2018
41
Table: Honduras Alcohol Sales, 2011-2018
41
Soft Drinks
42
Table: Guatemala Soft Drink Sales, 2011-2018
42
Table: Costa Rica Soft Drink Sales, 2011-2018
43
Table: El Salvador Soft Drink Sales, 2011-2018
43
Table: Honduras Soft Drink Sales, 2011-2018
44
Mass Grocery Retail
45
Table: Regional Sales Breakdown By Retail Format, %, 2012-2022
45
Table: Guatemala Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2011-2018
46
Table: Costa Rica Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2011-2018
46
Table: El Salvador Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2011-2018
47
Table: Honduras Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2011-2018
47
Trade
47
Table: Guatemala Food And Drink Trade Balance, 2011-2018
48
Table: Costa Rica Food And Drink Trade Balance, 2011-2018
49
Table: El Salvador Food And Drink Trade Balance, 2011-2018
49
Table: Honduras Food And Drink Trade Balance, 2011-2018
49
Economic Outlook
50
Economic Analysis - El Salvador
50
Table: Economic Activity (El Salvador 2009-2018)
53
Economic Analysis - Guatemala
53
Table: Current Account (Guatemala 2010-2018)
56
Economic Analysis - Honduras
56
Table: Fiscal Policy (Honduras 2010-2018)
59
Currency Forecast - Costa Rica
59
Table: BMI Costa Rica Currency Forecast
59
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
63
Latin America Risk/Reward Ratings
63
Table: Latin America Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q314
65
Table: Latin America Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings Q314 (scores out of 10)
67
Market Overview
69
Food
69
Drink
70
Hot Drinks
70
Soft Drinks
71
Alcoholic Drinks
72
Mass Grocery Retail
73
Industry Trends And Developments
75
Food
75
Key Industry Trends And Developments
75
Drink
80
Key Industry Trends And Developments
80
Coffee Growers Gaining Support
82
Mass Grocery Retail
86
Key Industry Trends And Developments
86
Competitive Landscape
89
Table: Key Players In Central America's Food & Drink Sector
89
Table: Key Players In Guatemala's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
90
Table: Key Players In El Salvador's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
90
Table: Key Players In Costa Rica's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
91
Table: Key Players In Honduras' Mass Grocery Retail Sector
92
Company Profile
93
Diana Food
93
CBC (formerly Central America Beverage Corporation,CABCORP)
95
SABMiller
97
Florida Ice And Farm
100
Walmart de M-xico y Centroam-rica
102
Global Industry Overview
105
Table: Food And Drink Core Views
117
Demographic Forecast
118
Costa Rica
118
Table: Costa Rica's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
119
Table: Costa Rica's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
120
Table: Costa Rica's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
121
Table: Costa Rica's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
121
El Salvador
122
Table: El Salvador's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
123
Table: El Salvador's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
124
Table: El Salvador's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
125
Table: El Salvador's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
125
Guatemala
126
Table: Guatemala's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
127
Table: Guatemala's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
128
Table: Guatemala's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
129
Table: Guatemala's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
129
Honduras
130
Table: Honduras' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
131
Table: Honduras' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
132
Table: Honduras' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
133
Table: Honduras' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
133
Glossary
134
Food & Drink
134
Mass Grocery Retail
134
Methodology
136
Industry Forecast Methodology
136
Sector-Specific Methodology
137
Sources
137
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
138
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
139
Table: Weighting
140

The Central America Food & Drink Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Central America Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Honduras.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Honduras to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Guatemalan, Salvadoran, Costa Rican, Honduran food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Honduras through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the retail market.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Food & Drink Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors, food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Food Forecasts

BMI's food chapter is divided into sections such as Meat, Fish, Confectionary, Dairy and Canned Foods, and provides insight into a market's food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

Industry Forecast Scenario - Historical data series and forecasts to end-2018 for growth of key indicators within a market's food industry. Including consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.

Industry Developments - A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.

Market Overview - An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food chapter, the drink section provides insight into the market's drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into a market's grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-201 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown for the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape & Profiles

Illustration of the industry via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. BMI analyses each company's market position, business strategies and investment potential.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc