Business Monitor International


Central America & Caribbean Mining Report

Published 19 May 2014

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Central America & Caribbean Mining Report

BMI View: We expect uneven mining sector growth through 2018 across various countries within Ce ntral America and the Caribbean. The region has significant untapped mineral potential, though variations among countries' business environments and operational challenges will mean varied performance . Overall, we expect Colombia and Panama to see the strongest mining sector growth, while Guatemala, and to a lesser extent Honduras, underperform.

We expect Colombia and Panama to lead the region in terms of mining sector development, with the Dominican Republic not far behind. The former two lead in their overall business environments and mining sector regulatory framework, which should enable consistent investment and sector development. Furthermore, both have significant untapped base and precious metal reserves. Panama will become a major copper exporter once its Cobre Panama copper and gold mine, owned and operated by First Quantum, comes online in 2017, thus delaying significant sector growth until the latter half of the decade. The Dominican Republic has the potential to become a Caribbean mining powerhouse with its stellar portfolio of gold, silver, and copper reserves. The country's Pueblo Viejo mine, operated by Barrick Gold and Goldcorp, will contribute significantly to the sector's total output, though domestic opposition to mining in the country is likely to become more pronounced over the coming quarters.

Colombia & Panama Lead
Central America & Caribbean - Business Environment Ratings & Long-Term Political Rating

In contrast, mining firms in Guatemala and Honduras will face operational difficulties stemming from poor rule of law, corruption, and violence among other issues. Furthermore, both countries have seen significant domestic opposition to mining, with protests turning violent in Guatemala. Between the two, Honduras shows some potential upside though given the country's regulators have seen a significant influx of mining permit applications...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Colombia Coal: Heating Up
10
Table: Colombia - Coal Production
13
Dominican Republic Gold: A Golden Future
13
Table: The Dominican Republic - Gold Projects
14
Local Opposition Remains Risk
15
Table: The Dominican Republic - Gold Production
16
Guatemala Gold And Silver: Output Growth, Though Risks Ahead
16
Table: Guatemala - Mining Projects
16
Protests And Resource Nationalism Remain Top Risks
17
Table: Guatemala - Gold And Silver Production
17
Honduras Gold And Silver: Minimal Growth Ahead
18
Some Promise, Though Headwinds May Prove Too Great
19
Table: Honduras - Gold And Silver Production
20
Jamaica Bauxite: Few Opportunities Ahead
20
Table: Jamaica: Bauxite Production
22
Panama Gold: Sector To Develop, Despite Local Opposition
22
Table: Panama- Mining Projects
22
Headwinds Remain Despite Positive Outlook
24
Table: Table: Panama - Gold Production
24
Suriname Gold: Main Driver Of Growth
24
Gold To Drive Industry
25
Risks Ahead
26
Table: Suriname - Gold And Bauxite Production
26
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
27
Risk/Reward Ratings
27
Colombia & Chile Remain At The Top
28
Table: Mining Risk/Reward Ratings
29
Mexico & Peru See Improvement, While Brazil Falls Back
29
Weak Prices & Poor Operating Environments Hold Others Back
30
Colombia Risk/Reward Ratings
31
Rewards
31
Industry Rewards
31
Country Rewards
31
Risks
32
Industry Risks
32
Country Risks
32
Table: Colombia - Mine Production & Growth
33
Jamaica Risk/Reward Ratings
33
Rewards
33
Industry Rewards
33
Country Rewards
33
Risks
34
Industry Risks
34
Country Risks
34
Table: Jamaica - Mine Production & Growth
35
Panama Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Rewards
35
Industry Rewards
35
Country Rewards
35
Risks
35
Industry Risks
35
Country Risks
36
Table: Central America - Mine Production & Growth
36
The Dominican Republic Risk/Reward Ratings
36
Rewards
36
Industry Rewards
36
Country Rewards
37
Risks
37
Industry Risks
37
Country Risks
38
Table: Dominican Republic - Mine Production & Growth
38
Regulatory Development
39
Panama And Colombia To Remain Friendliest Destinations
39
Tension To Remain Elevated In Dominican Republic
39
Guatemala To Remain Problematic While Honduras Shows Slight Promise
40
Jamaica And Suriname Show Little Change
40
Table: Regional Regulatory Index
40
Commodities Forecast
42
Commodity Strategy
42
Iron Ore: Chinese Stimulus Not A Game Changer
42
Steel: Gradual Rationalisation Insufficient To Boost Prices
44
Aluminium: Recent Rally Unlikely To Persist Into H214
45
Copper: Bearish Forecast Appears Well Placed
46
Lead: Picking Up Autos Sector Tailwinds
47
Nickel: Recent Rise To Fall Back In H214
48
Zinc: Potential Test Of Resistance In Coming Weeks
50
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
52
Competitive Landscape
53
Smaller Players Pursuing Opportunities
53
Table: Financial Metrics
54
Company Profile
55
Barrick Gold
55
Company Strategy
56
Latest Financial Results
57
Financial Data
58
Table: Barrick - Key Financial Data
58
Address Details
59
Goldcorp
60
Latest Financial Results
62
Table: Goldcorp - Key Financial Data
63
First Quantum
63
Latest Financial Results
66
Table: First Quantum: Key Financial Data
67
Regional Overview
68
Americas Overview
68
1
68
2
69
Table: Americas - Regulatory Updates
70
3
71
4
72
5
75
Global Industry Overview
77
Challenges
77
Table: Mining - Select M&A Deals
81
Cause For Optimism
84
Methodology
91
Industry Forecast Methodology
91
Sources
92
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
93
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
95

The Central America & Caribbean Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Central America & Caribbean Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Colombia, Panama, Venezuela, Jamaica, Dominican Republic.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Colombia, Panama, Venezuela, Jamaica, Dominican Republic to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Colombia, Panama, Venezuela, Jamaica, Dominican Republic's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Colombia, Panama, Venezuela, Jamaica, Dominican Republic.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Mining Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (mining companies and support service providers) in the regional mining market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry rankings products.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:

  • Mining Industry: Industry size (US$mn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment ('000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (US$).
  • Output:Production volumes ('000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (US$mn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state .
  • Commodity Markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (US$) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), inflation (%), fiscal balance (% of GDP), trade balance (US$bn), current account (US$bn) and external debt (US$bn).

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc