BMI View: The mining sector in Central America and the Caribbean is set to grow as investment flows into the region's untapped mineral potential. Much of this will be focused on gold and copper , as the region ha s reserves of both. We expect the bulk of the growth in the mining sector to be towards the end of our forecast period , in 2017, as many of the projects are in the early stages of development and commercial production at several projects i s years away.
We expect Panama and t he Dominican Republic to lead the region and attract considerable mining investment due to their untapped mineral reserve s, reasonable political ratings and stable business environments. T he Dominican Republic has the potential to become a Caribbean mining powerhouse with its stellar portfolio of gold, silver and copper reserves. Panama will become a major copper exporter once its Cobre Panama copper and gold mine, owned and operated by First Quantum , comes online. The company is aiming for production to start in early 2017. Guyana and Suriname will also see their sectors develop, albeit from a low base, due to increased gold exploration and development.
Other countries in the region though will see little or even negative growth. Guatemala and Honduras will see minimal growth in mining output. Given our forecast for declining base and precious metal prices, we expect their mining industry values to shrink by mid- to late-decade. Venezuela too will see its mining sector value decline later this decade. Political instability and resource nationalism will remain problematic in all three countries, though we expect these issues to remain particularly acute in Venezuela.
| Honduras And Guatemala To Lag Behind |
|Honduras And Guatemala - Short-Term Political Risk And Business Environment Ratings|
The Central America & Caribbean Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Central America & Caribbean Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Colombia, Panama, Venezuela, Jamaica, Dominican Republic.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Colombia, Panama, Venezuela, Jamaica, Dominican Republic to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Colombia, Panama, Venezuela, Jamaica, Dominican Republic's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Colombia, Panama, Venezuela, Jamaica, Dominican Republic.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Business Environment Ratings
BMI's Mining Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (mining companies and support service providers) in the regional mining market. The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:
- Mining Industry: Industry size (US$mn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment ('000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (US$).
- Output:Production volumes ('000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
- Exports: Value of exports (US$mn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state .
- Commodity Markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (US$) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.
BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), inflation (%), fiscal balance (% of GDP), trade balance (US$bn), current account (US$bn) and external debt (US$bn).
Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis
Comparative company analyses and tables detailing by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.