Business Monitor International


Central America Business Forecast Report

Published 26 March 2014

  • 67 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,195.00
Central America Business Forecast Report

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
15
Core Views
15
Major Forecast Changes
15
Key Risk To Outlook
15
Political Outlook - Regional
17
SWOT Analysis
17
Central America Facing Continued Challenges To Political Stability
18
Economic Outlook - Regional
21
SWOT Analysis
21
Economic Outlook
22
Energy Security Questions To Linger
22
Investment Climate
25
Mesoamerica Railway To Boost Logistics Capacity
25
Chapter 1
27
Domestic Politics
27
Surprises Pave The Way For PAC President
27
Chapter 1
29
Balance Of Payments
29
Little Improvement In Current Account Ahead
29
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT
29
Chapter 2
31
Domestic Politics
31
FMLN In Pole Position Heading To Second Round Of Presidential Elections
31
Chapter 2
27
Balance Of Payments
33
Current Account Deficit To Reverse Trend, Narrowing In 2014
33
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT
33
Chapter 3
27
Domestic Politics
35
Security Risk To Remain On Centre Stage Politically
35
Chapter 3
27
Balance Of Payments
37
Better Export Outlook To Bolster Current Account
37
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT
37
Chapter 4
27
Domestic Politics
39
Political Divisions To Keep Progress Slow
39
Chapter 4
27
Economic Activity
41
Exports, Investment To Support Stronger Growth
41
TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
41
Chapter 5
27
Domestic Politics
43
Canal Project Terms Risk Public Opposition
43
Chapter 5
27
Exchange Rate Forecast
45
NIO: Crawling Peg Here To Stay Amidst Reliance On Exports
45
TABLE: BMI NICARAGUA CURRENCY FORECAST
45
Chapter 6
27
Domestic Politics
49
Navarro's Rise Poses Challenge To An Arias Win
49
Chapter 6
27
Economic Activity
51
Slower Growth Here To Stay
51
TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
51
Chapter 7: BMI Global Assumptions
53
Global Outlook
53
Global Growth Optimism Turning To Disappointment
53
Table: Global Assumptions
53
Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, %
54
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
54
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth, %
55

The Central America Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of Central America's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Central America's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise Central America's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Central America, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Central America Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes two major sections: Economic Outlook and Political Outlook.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Central American economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Central America through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Central America Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Central America and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Central America, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Central America over the next 5-years?

BMI's Central America country Risk Ratings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Central American Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Central America.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Central America's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark Central America's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

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Testimonials

The sections that I find most interesting and useful are the macroeconomic data and forecasts for the country, top export destinations and economic activity. The indicators/analysis of these areas helps us orient our thinking, our assumptions and, consequently, our decisions in the commercial area.

Country Manager, DHL Express