Business Monitor International


Central America Business Forecast Report

Published 26 March 2014

  • 67 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,195.00
Central America Business Forecast Report

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
15
Core Views
15
Major Forecast Changes
15
Key Risk To Outlook
15
Political Outlook - Regional
17
SWOT Analysis
17
Long-Term Political Outlook
19
Central America Facing Continued Challenges To Political Stability
19
Economic Outlook - Regional
23
SWOT Analysis
23
Regional Infrastructure
25
Transport Infrastructure Progresses Despite Challenging Environment
25
Regional Agribusiness/Coffee
26
Output Recovery In The Making
26
table: Coffee Production & Consumption ('000 60 kg bags)
27
Chapter 1
29
Domestic Politics
29
Radical Changes To Economic Policy Unlikely Under New Government
29
Chapter 1
31
Currency Forecast
31
CRC: Central Bank Intervention To Stem Further Depreciation
31
table: BMI Currency Forecast
31
table: Exchange Rate
32
Chapter 2
33
Domestic Politics
33
Security Concerns Further Threaten FMLN Mandate
33
Chapter 2
35
Economic Activity
35
Economic Growth To Reverse Downward Trend In 2014
35
table: Economic Activity
35
Chapter 3
37
Domestic Politics
37
Institutional Weakness To Hamper Gains In Fight Against Crime
37
Chapter 3
39
Economic Activity
39
Better External Conditions To Bolster Current Account
39
table: Current Account
40
Chapter 4
41
Domestic Politics
41
Violence Edging Lower, But Concerns About Militarisation A Rising Risk
41
Chapter 4
43
Economic Activity
43
Refinancing And Reform To Improve Fiscal Outlook
43
table: Fiscal Policy
44
Chapter 5
45
Domestic Politics
45
Security Environment To Remain Envy Of Rough Neighbourhood
45
Chapter 5
37
Economic Activity
47
Weaker Consumer To Drive Growth Lower In 2014
47
table: Economic Activity
47
Chapter 6
49
Domestic Politics
49
Significant Policy Shift On The Cards Following Varela Victory
49
Chapter 6
51
Economic Activity
51
Moderately Narrower Current Account Shortfall Ahead
51
table: Current Account
52
Emerging Market Deceleration
52
Chapter 7:BMI Global Assumptions
55
Global Outlook
55
Emerging Market Deceleration
55
Table: Global Assumptions
55
Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, %
56
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
56
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
56
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth, %
57

The Central America Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of Central America's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Central America's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise Central America's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Central America, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Central America Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes two major sections: Economic Outlook and Political Outlook.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Central American economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Central America through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Central America Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Central America and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Central America, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Central America over the next 5-years?

BMI's Central America country Risk Ratings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Central American Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Central America.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Central America's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark Central America's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

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Testimonials

The sections that I find most interesting and useful are the macroeconomic data and forecasts for the country, top export destinations and economic activity. The indicators/analysis of these areas helps us orient our thinking, our assumptions and, consequently, our decisions in the commercial area.

Country Manager, DHL Express