Business Monitor International


Central America Agribusiness Report

Published 10 October 2014

  • 138 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Central America Agribusiness Report

BMI View:   The region is still struggling with disease outbreaks in the coffee sector in 2013/14. We believe the region will continue to suffer as low global coffee prices limit investment potential. Even if prices have rebounded recently, we believe they are overstretched and see them going back towards the USc140-150/lb level in the near term. Central America is generally dependent on imports for corn, and we expect the production deficit to widen over our forecast period. That said, Central America is expected to remain self-sufficient in sugar and even increase its potential for sugar exports. The sugar industry has the potential to attract investment over the medium term.

Coffee & Sugar Ahead Of The Rest
Central America - BMI Market Value By Commodity (% of total)

Key Forecasts

  • Coffee production growth to 2017/18: 10.9% to 14.9mn bags.  We believe the coffee sector will continue to battle with disease and weather problems, while low global prices will limit investment in the crop, at least in the coming years. We see more potential for the sector in the long term.

  • Corn consumption growth to 2018: 11.9% to 6.8mn tonnes. Demand growth for corn will far outpace production in Central America, affecting prices and keeping the area import-dependent for its grain needs.

  • Sugar production growth to 2017/18: 4.2% to 5.2mn tonnes. Most countries in the region will continue to run a small production surplus out to 2017/18, and development of the export industry could present upside risks to our production forecasts over the long term.

  • 2014 real GDP growth: 3.2% year-on-year (y-o-y). Stable compared to 2013. Real GDP growth is predicted to average 3.5% over our forecast period.

  • Consumer price inflation: 4.5% y-o-y in 2014. Stable compared with 2013 and predicted to average 4.9% over 2012-2017.

Industry Outlook

We expect that recent strength in the Guatemalan quetzal is likely to unwind over the medium term, in line with our view for a...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Industry Forecast
11
Livestock Outlook
11
Table: Select Countries - Beef & Veal Production & Consumption
11
Table: Select Countries - Pork Production & Consumption
12
Table: Select Countries - Poultry Production & Consumption
12
Table: Select Countries - Beef & Veal Production & Consumption
14
Table: Select Countries - Pork Production & Consumption
15
Table: Select Countries - Poultry Production & Consumption
15
Grains Outlook
16
Table: Select Countries - Corn Production & Consumption
17
Table: Select Countries - Corn Production & Consumption
20
Coffee Outlook
22
Table: Select Countries - Coffee Production & Consumption
23
Table: Select Countries - Coffee Production & Consumption
25
Sugar Outlook
26
Table: Select Countries - Sugar Production & Consumption
27
Table: Obesity Rates By Country/Region
31
Table: Select Countries - Sugar Production & Consumption
32
Commodities Price Analysis
33
Monthly Softs Strategy
33
Table: SELECT COMMODITIES - PERFORMANCE & BMI FORECASTS
40
Monthly Grains Strategy
41
Table: Selected Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
48
Upstream Analysis
49
Americas GM Outlook
49
Americas Machinery Outlook
56
Americas Fertiliser Outlook
62
Downstream Analysis
67
Food
67
Food Consumption
67
Table: Guatemala - Food Consumption Indicators, 2011-2018
68
Table: Costa Rica - Food Consumption Indicators, 2011-2018
68
Table: El Salvador - Food Consumption Indicators, 2011-2018
69
Table: Honduras - Food Consumption Indicators, 2011-2018
69
Confectionery
69
Meat
70
Table: El Salvador - Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018
70
Jams & Jellies
72
Table: El Salvador - Jams & Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018
72
Pasta
72
Table: El Salvador - Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018
73
Prepared Fish
73
Table: El Salvador - Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018
74
Table: Costa Rica - Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018
74
Oils & Fats
76
Table: Costa Rica - Soya Bean Oil Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018
77
Table: Guatemala - Soya Bean Oil Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018
78
Table: El Salvador - Margarine Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018
79
Dairy
79
Table: El Salvador - Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018
80
Drink
84
Hot Drinks
84
Table: Guatemala Coffee Sales, 2011-2018
85
Table: Costa Rica Coffee Sales, 2011-2018
85
Table: El Salvador Coffee Sales, 2011-2018
85
Table: Honduras Coffee Sales, 2011-2018
85
Alcoholic Drinks
86
Table: Guatemala Alcoholic Drink Sales, 2011-2018
86
Table: Costa Rica Alcoholic Drink Sales, 2011-2018
87
Table: El Salvador Alcoholic Drink Sales, 2011-2018
87
Table: Honduras Alcohol Sales, 2011-2018
87
Soft Drinks
88
Table: Guatemala Soft Drink Sales, 2011-2018
88
Table: Costa Rica Soft Drink Sales, 2011-2018
89
Table: El Salvador Soft Drink Sales, 2011-2018
89
Table: Honduras Soft Drink Sales, 2011-2018
90
Mass Grocery Retail
91
Table: Regional Sales Breakdown By Retail Format, %, 2012-2022
91
Table: Guatemala Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2011-2018
92
Table: Costa Rica Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2011-2018
92
Table: El Salvador Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2011-2018
93
Table: Honduras Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2011-2018
93
Regional Overview
94
Demographic Forecast
100
Belize
100
Table: Belize's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
101
Table: Belize's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
102
Table: Belize's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
103
Table: Belize's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
103
Costa Rica
104
Table: Costa Rica's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
105
Table: Costa Rica's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
106
Table: Costa Rica's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
107
Table: Costa Rica's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
107
El Salvador
108
Table: El Salvador's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
109
Table: El Salvador's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
110
Table: El Salvador's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
111
Table: El Salvador's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
111
Guatemala
112
Table: Guatemala's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
113
Table: Guatemala's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
114
Table: Guatemala's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
115
Table: Guatemala's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
115
Honduras
116
Table: Honduras' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
117
Table: Honduras' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
118
Table: Honduras' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
119
Table: Honduras' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
119
Nicaragua
120
Table: Nicaragua's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
121
Table: Nicaragua's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
122
Table: Nicaragua's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
123
Table: Nicaragua's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
123
Panama
124
Table: Panama's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
125
Table: Panama's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
126
Table: Panama's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
127
Table: Panama's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
127
Methodology
128
Industry Forecast Methodology
128
Sector-Specific Methodology
129

The Central America Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Central America Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Panama, Guatemala, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Belize, Honduras.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The Central America Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc