Business Monitor International


Central America Agribusiness Report

Published 14 April 2014

  • 138 pages
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$1,295.00
Central America Agribusiness Report

BMI View:   The region is still struggling with disease outbreaks in the coffee sector in 2013/14. We believe the region will continue to suffer as low global coffee prices limit investment potential. Even if prices have rebounded recently, we believe they are overstretched and see them going back towards the USc140-150/lb level in the near term. Central America is generally dependent on imports for corn, and we expect the production deficit to widen over our forecast period. That said, Central America is expected to remain self-sufficient in sugar and even increase its potential for sugar exports. The sugar industry has the potential to attract investment over the medium term.

Coffee & Sugar Ahead Of The Rest
Central America - BMI Market Value By Commodity (% of total)
  • Coffee production growth to 2017/18: 10.9% to 14.9mn bags.  We believe the coffee sector will continue to battle with disease and weather problems, while low global prices will limit investment in the crop, at least in the coming years. We see more potential for the sector in the long term.

  • Corn consumption growth to 2018: 11.9% to 6.8mn tonnes. Demand growth for corn will far outpace production in Central America, affecting prices and keeping the area import-dependent for its grain needs.

  • Sugar production growth to 2017/18: 4.2% to 5.2mn tonnes. Most countries in the region will continue to run a small production surplus out to 2017/18, and development of the export industry could present upside risks to our production forecasts over the long term.

  • 2014 real GDP growth: 3.2% year-on-year (y-o-y). Stable compared to 2013. Real GDP growth is predicted to average 3.5% over our forecast period.

  • Consumer price inflation: 4.5% y-o-y in 2014. Stable compared with 2013 and predicted to average 4.9% over 2012-2017.

Industry Outlook

We expect that recent strength in the Guatemalan quetzal is likely to unwind over the medium term, in line with our view for a significant...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Industry Forecast
11
Livestock Outlook
11
Table: Guatemala Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
12
Table: Central America Pork Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
13
Table: Central America Beef Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
13
Table: Guatemala Poultry Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
16
Table: Central America Pork Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
16
Table: Central America Beef Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
17
Sugar Outlook
18
Table: Central America Sugar Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
19
Table: Central America Sugar Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
21
Grains Outlook
22
Table: Central America Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
23
Table: Central America Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
26
Coffee Outlook
27
Table: Central America Coffee Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
28
Table: Central America Coffee Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
33
Commodities Price Analysis
35
Monthly Softs Strategy
35
Table: Select Agricultural Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
44
Table: BMI COMMODITY STRATEGY
45
Monthly Grains Strategy
45
Table: Select Agricultural Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
54
Table: BMI Strategy Table
55
Upstream Analysis
56
Americas GM Outlook
56
Americas Machinery Outlook
61
Americas Fertiliser Outlook
66
Downstream Analysis
73
Food
73
Table: Guatemala - Food Consumption Indicators, 2010-2017
74
Table: Costa Rica - Food Consumption Indicators, 2010-2017
74
Table: El Salvador - Food Consumption Indicators, 2010-2017
75
Table: Honduras - Food Consumption Indicators, 2010-2017
75
Table: El Salvador - Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, 2010-2017
76
Table: El Salvador - Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
78
Table: El Salvador- Jams & Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
79
Table: El Salvador - Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
80
Table: El Salvador - Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
81
Table: Costa Rica - Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
82
Table: Costa Rica - Soya Bean Oil Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
83
Table: Guatemala - Soya Bean Oil Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
84
Table: El Salvador - Margarine Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
85
Table: El Salvador - Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
86
Drink
88
Table: Guatemala - Coffee Volume Sales, 2010-2017
89
Table: Costa Rica - Coffee Volume Sales, 2010-2017
89
Table: El Salvador - Coffee Volume Sales, 2010-2017
89
Table: Honduras - Coffee Volume Sales, 2010-2017
89
Table: Guatemala - Alcoholic Drinks Volume Sales, 2010-2017
90
Table: Costa Rica - Alcoholic Drinks Volume Sales, 2010-2017
91
Table: El Salvador - Alcoholic Drinks Volume Sales, 2010-2017
91
Table: Honduras - Alcoholic Drinks Volume Sales, 2010-2017
91
Table: Guatemala - Soft Drink Volume Sales, 2010-2017
92
Table: Costa Rica - Soft Drink Volume Sales, 2010-2017
93
Table: El Salvador - Soft Drinks Volume Sales, 2010-2017
93
Table: Honduras - Soft Drink Volume Sales, 2010-2017
93
Mass Grocery Retail
94
Table: Regional Sales Breakdown By Retail Format, %
94
Table: Guatemala - Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2010-2017
95
Table: Costa Rica - Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2010-2017
95
Table: El Salvador - Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2010-2017
96
Table: Honduras - Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2010-2017
96
Table: Guatemala - Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
97
Table: Costa Rica - Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
97
Table: El Salvador - Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
98
Table: Honduras - Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
98
Demographic Forecast
99
Belize
99
Table: Belize's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
100
Table: Belize's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
100
Table: Belize's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
101
Table: Belize's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
102
Costa Rica
103
Table: Costa Rica's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
104
Table: Costa Rica's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
104
Table: Costa Rica's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
105
Table: Costa Rica's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
106
El Salvador
107
Table: El Salvador's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
108
Table: El Salvador's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
108
Table: El Salvador's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
109
Table: El Salvador's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
110
Guatemala
111
Table: Guatemala's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
112
Table: Guatemala's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
112
Table: Guatemala's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
113
Table: Guatemala's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
114
Honduras
115
Table: Honduras' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
116
Table: Honduras' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
116
Table: Honduras' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
117
Table: Honduras' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
118
Nicaragua
119
Table: Nicaragua's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
120
Table: Nicaragua's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
120
Table: Nicaragua's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
121
Table: Nicaragua's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
122
Panama
123
Table: Panama's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
124
Table: Panama's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
125
Table: Panama's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
126
Table: Panama's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
126
Methodology
127

The Central America Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Central America Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Panama, Guatemala, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Belize, Honduras.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The Central America Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc