Business Monitor International


Central America Agribusiness Report

Published 14 April 2014

  • 138 pages
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$1,295.00
Central America Agribusiness Report

BMI View: The region is still struggling with disease outbreaks in the coffee sector in 2013/14. We believe the region will continue to suffer as low global coffee prices limit investment potential. Even if prices have rebounded recently, we believe they are overstretched and see them going back towards the USc140-150/lb level in the near term. Central America is generally dependent on imports for corn, and we expect the production deficit to widen over our forecast period. That said, Central America is expected to remain self-sufficient in sugar and even increase its potential for sugar exports. The sugar industry has the potential to attract investment over the medium term.

Coffee & Sugar Ahead Of The Rest
Central America - BMI Market Value By Commodity (% of total)
  • Coffee production growth to 2017/18: 10.9% to 14.9mn bags. We believe the coffee sector will continue to battle with disease and weather problems, while low global prices will limit investment in the crop, at least in the coming years. We see more potential for the sector in the long term.

  • Corn consumption growth to 2018: 11.1% to 6.8mn tonnes. Demand growth for corn will far outpace production in Central America, affecting prices and keeping the area import-dependent for its grain needs.

  • Sugar production growth to 2017/18: 4.2% to 5.2mn tonnes. Most countries in the region will continue to run a small production surplus out to 2017/18, and development of the export industry could present upside risks to our production forecasts over the long term.

  • 2014 real GDP growth: 3.7% year-on-year (y-o-y). This compares with 3.2% growth in 2013. Real GDP growth is predicted to average 3.7% over our forecast period.

  • Consumer price inflation: 4.5% y-o-y in 2014. Stable compared with 2013 and predicted to average 4.9% over 2012-2017.

Industry Outlook

Our view for the decrease in Central American coffee production to be limited in 2013/14 despite the outbreak of disease has played out...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Industry Forecast
11
Livestock Outlook
11
Table: Guatemala Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
12
Table: Central America Pork Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
13
Table: Central America Beef Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
13
Table: Guatemala Poultry Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
15
Table: Central America Pork Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
15
Table: Central America Beef Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
16
Grains Outlook
17
Table: Central America Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
18
Table: Central America Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
20
Coffee Outlook
21
Table: Central America - Coffee Production & Consumption ('000 bags)
23
Table: Central America - Coffee Production & Consumption ('000 bags)
27
Sugar Outlook
28
Table: Central America - Sugar Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
28
Table: Obesity Rates By Country
Table: Obesity Rates By Country
Table: Central America - Sugar Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes)
32
Commodities Price Analysis
34
Monthly Softs Update
34
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
43
Table: Bmi Commodities Strategy
44
Monthly Grains Update
44
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
53
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
54
Upstream Analysis
55
Americas GM Outlook
55
Americas Machinery Outlook
59
Americas Fertiliser Outlook
65
Downstream Analysis
71
Food
71
Food Consumption
71
Table: Guatemala - Food Consumption Indicators, 2010-2017
72
Table: Costa Rica - Food Consumption Indicators, 2010-2017
72
Table: El Salvador - Food Consumption Indicators, 2010-2017
73
Table: Honduras - Food Consumption Indicators, 2010-2017
73
Confectionery
73
Table: El Salvador - Confectionery Value
Table: El Salvador - Confectionery Value
Meat
76
Table: El Salvador - Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
76
Jams & Jellies
78
Table: El Salvador - Jams & Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
78
Pasta
78
Table: El Salvador - Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
78
Prepared Fish
79
Table: El Salvador - Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
79
Table: Costa Rica - Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
81
Oils & Fats
82
Table: Costa Rica - Soya Bean Oil Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
82
Table: Guatemala - Soya Bean Oil Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
83
Table: El Salvador - Margarine Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
84
Dairy
85
Table: El Salvador - Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
86
Drink
88
Hot Drinks
88
Table: Guatemala Coffee Sales, 2010-2017
89
Table: Costa Rica Coffee Sales, 2010-2017
89
Table: El Salvador Coffee Sales, 2010-2017
89
Table: Honduras Coffee Sales, 2010-2017
89
Alcoholic Drinks
90
Table: Guatemala Alcoholic Drink Sales, 2010-2017
90
Table: Costa Rica Alcoholic Drink Sales, 2010-2017
91
Table: El Salvador Alcoholic Drink Sales, 2010-2017
91
Table: Honduras Alcohol Sales, 2010-2017
91
Soft Drinks
92
Table: Guatemala Soft Drink Sales, 2010-2017
93
Table: Costa Rica Soft Drink Sales, 2010-2017
93
Table: El Salvador Soft Drink Sales, 2010-2017
94
Table: Honduras Soft Drink Sales, 2010-2017
94
Mass Grocery Retail
95
Table: Regional Sales Breakdown By Retail Format, %, 2012-2022
96
Table: Guatemala Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2010-2017
96
Table: Costa Rica Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2010-2017
96
Table: El Salvador Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2010-2017
97
Table: Honduras Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2010-2017
97
Regional Overview
99
Demographic Forecast
106
Belize
106
Table: Belize's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
107
Table: Belize's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
109
Table: Belize's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
109
Table: Belize's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
110
Costa Rica
110
Table: Costa Rica's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
112
Table: Costa Rica's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
112
Table: Costa Rica's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
113
Table: Costa Rica's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
114
El Salvador
114
Table: El Salvador's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
116
Table: El Salvador's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
116
Table: El Salvador's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
117
Table: El Salvador's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
118
Guatemala
119
Table: Guatemala's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
120
Table: Guatemala's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
121
Table: Guatemala's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
122
Table: Guatemala's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
122
Honduras
123
Table: Honduras' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
124
Table: Honduras' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
125
Table: Honduras' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
126
Table: Honduras' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
126
Nicaragua
126
Table: Nicaragua's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
128
Table: Nicaragua's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
130
Table: Nicaragua's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
131
Table: Nicaragua's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
131
Panama
131
Table: Panama's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
133
Table: Panama's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
134
Table: Panama's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
134
Table: Panama's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
135
Methodology
136
Industry Forecast Methodology
136
Sector-Specific Methodology
137

The Central America Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Central America Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Panama, Guatemala, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Belize, Honduras.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The Central America Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc