Business Monitor International


Central Africa Mining Report

Published 27 January 2014

  • 81 pages
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$1,295.00
Central Africa Mining Report

Central Africa's mining sector is set to follow much of the continent by developing its substantial mineral wealth. The region is still far from achieving its full potential, but these recent developments could indicate a changing tide for these three countries and indicate that the mining sector is set for sustained lift-off. However, many of the issues that have held back the region from achieving its potential for much of its history remain. Political risk and a lack of adequate infrastructure are the most pressing concerns, and while there are some efforts to address these problems, a lot more needs to be done if the region is not going to be considered 'frontier' for many years to come.

Strong Growth Outlook
DRC - Copper & Gold Output

Ore To Play For

Like that of much of Sub-Saharan Africa, Central Africa's iron ore mining sector remains at the early stages of development, having lain dormant since the region's independence. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), foreign firms have been showing interest in developing the country's considerable resources. With growing interest in Africa's largely untapped iron ore resources, the DRC's considerable deposits of the mineral have fallen under the gaze of international mining firms.

This foreign interest has spread to Cameroon and the Republic of the Congo, which have several huge iron ore projects set to come online over the coming years. Chinese companies have shown an increasing interest in the region and are currently looking for joint ventures, a trend we expect to continue and gather pace.

Key Players

Central Africa's mining sector is fairly well consolidated at present, with only the most intrepid companies venturing there. The most well-developed sector is in the DRC, where global gold miners such as Randgold Resources, AngloGold Ashanti and Minmetals operate. Looking ahead, we expect Central Africa's mining sector to become more fragmented over the coming years as the region's substantial...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Ore To Play For
7
Key Players
8
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Cameroon Iron Ore: Companies Plough Into Mineral Wealth
11
Table: Cameroon - Key Mining Projects
13
Infrastructure Risks Linger
13
Republic of Congo Iron Ore: Joining The Regional Boom
14
Table: Largest Iron Ore Projects
16
China & Infrastructure Present Risks
16
Republic of Congo: Output To Double, Substantial Risks Remain
16
Higher Grade Deposits Give Further Attention
17
Table: DRC - Largest Copper Expansion Plans
18
Plethora Of Risks Await Investors
18
Infrastructure Impediments To Lessen
19
Table: DRC - Copper Production ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
20
Republic of Congo: Boom Times Ahead For Gold Sector
20
Political Risk To Remain A Major Risk
21
Table: Democratic Republic of Congo - Gold Production & % Change
22
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
23
Risk/Reward Ratings
23
Lower Gold Prices Reduce Rewards
23
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Ratings
24
Reduced Rewards For Copper Mining
24
Mixed Rankings For West Africa
25
Substantial Rewards In Southern Africa
25
Lack Of Uniformity In Regulatory Development
26
Political & Infrastructure Risks Lurk
27
Country Highlights
28
South Africa: Deteriorating Environment For Mining Companies
28
Mozambique: Mining Sector Set To Boom
29
Botswana: All Round Outperformer
29
Market Overview
30
Regulatory Development
32
Congo & Cameroon: Uncertainty, But Signs Of Promise
33
Table: Africa - Regulatory Outlook
33
Commodities Forecast
35
Commodity Strategy
35
Steel: Locked In Secular Downtrend
37
Aluminium: US$1,800/tonne To Provide Strong Support
37
Copper: Bearish View In Place Despite Some Recovery
38
Nickel: Despite Recent Gains, Downside Risks Dominate
40
Zinc: Channelling Support
42
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI forecasts
43
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
44
Competitive Landscape
45
Table: Comparative Metrics
46
Company Profile
47
Randgold Resources
47
Table: Randgold Resources - Financial Results
50
MMG Limited
51
Table: MMG Limited - Key Financial Data
56
Regional Overview
57
Africa Overview
57
Key Opportunities
57
1
57
2
58
3
59
Key Challenges
60
1
60
2
61
3
62
Table: Africa - Key Mining Regulatory Developments
63
Global Industry Overview
64
Methodology
76
Industry Forecast Methodology
76
Sources
77
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
78
Table: Mining Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
79
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
80

The Central Africa Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Central Africa Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Cameroon, Congo, Congo, Dem. Rep..

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Cameroon, Congo, Congo, Dem. Rep. to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Cameroon, Congo, Congo, Dem. Rep.'s mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Cameroon, Congo, Congo, Dem. Rep..
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Mining Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (mining companies and support service providers) in the regional mining market. The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:

  • Mining Industry: Industry size (US$mn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment ('000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (US$).
  • Output:Production volumes ('000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (US$mn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state .
  • Commodity Markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (US$) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2017 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), inflation (%), fiscal balance (% of GDP), trade balance (US$bn), current account (US$bn) and external debt (US$bn).

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc