‘Although the improved global economic outlook should offer some respite for Caribbean island economies, in the form of rising tourist arrivals and stronger freight shipping throughput, we take a cautious stance on the region's growth prospects. While major contractions in regional economies' real GDP will likely be avoided we believe that key sources of government revenue and employment have been shaken to their foundations since the onset of the 2008/2009 global financial crisis.’
Business Monitor International (BMI) has just published a brand new special report - Caribbean: Still Trouble in Paradise, Four Years On. It examines the economic challenges and systemic risks facing the Caribbean region in the aftermath of the global financial crisis.
We previously outlined the enormous headwinds affecting the highly open small Caribbean island economies in a 2009 Special Report. Now we revisit several of the core themes explored four years ago:
- A declining offshore financial services sector poses downside risks to regional growth.
- The tourism industry, while reviving, will grow at a slow pace, limiting the region's ability to recover.
- Caribbean transhipment hubs will face increasing competition from stronger capacity at US ports.
- Systemic risks confronting the region are as high as ever, and we see scope for additional credit events.
- The prospect of balance of payments crises in the Caribbean will test central banks' resolve to maintain existing currency pegs to the US dollar.
- Changing economic policy priorities in Venezuela could see favourable terms for fuel imports being revised, potentially exacerbating already precarious external positions.
- Political fallout from additional crises will be significant and could stall the region's drive for independence from sovereign European governments.
The report demonstrates BMI’s ability to look beyond near-term trends and utilise our breadth and depth of knowledge to paint detailed scenarios relevant to companies with a regional and multi-sector focus.
Use BMI’s core views on the Caribbean’s economic outlook, which is comprehensively backed up by extensive data and forecasts, to understand the opportunities and risks that will come out of the region going forward. This will help to inform your future investment decision-making and enhance your company’s growth strategy for 2013 and beyond.