Business Monitor International


Canada Shipping Report

Published 10 February 2014

  • 118 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Canada Shipping Report

We expect an improvement in Canadian real GDP growth in 2014 and 2015, with expansion of 2.1% and 2.3% respectively (up from 1.7% in both 2012 and 2013). However, our forecasts are below consensus, and we expect domestic demand to come under pressure as overleveraged households take a breather, the housing market cools, and commodity prices fail to recover.

Canadian real GDP growth came in at 2.7% q-o-q annualised in Q3 2013, with consumption and business investment leading the way, and net exports dragging down the expansion. Subsequent monthly data suggest that growth in Q4 2013 is likely to have maintained the momentum, with car sales and purchasing managers' indices in particular pointing toward an above-trend quarter. We maintain our 1.7% real GDP growth estimate for 2013.

In 2014, the tonnage throughput picture is mixed in Canada. The out performer in purely year-on-year (y-o-y) terms is set to be Port Metro Vancouver (6.0%), while at the other end of the spectrum, the port of Montreal is expected to see the smallest annual rise (1.0%). Port Metro Vancouver will also enjoy the highest annual growth rate in box terms, with y-o-y growth pencilled in at 4.50%.

Headline Industry Data

  • 2014 Port of Vancouver tonnage throughput forecast to grow 6.0%. We project throughput to reach 177.3mn tonnes in 2018.

  • 2014 Port of Vancouver container throughput forecast to grow 4.50% to reach 2.95mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs). Over the medium term we project throughput to reach 3.70mn TEUs.

Key Industry Trends

Short-Term Downside On Strike Action, But FTA To Boost Medium Term: In the short term, the Port of Metro Vancouver is battling industrial action, with a trucking strike at the facility set to negatively impact the port's operational throughput in 2014. The medium term outlook for the port is however looking much brighter, with the facility set to be one of the primary Canadian beneficiaries of a newly signed free trade agreement between the country and...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Canada - Q114
7
SWOT
9
Canada - Q114
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Industry Forecast
13
Port Metro Vancouver Throughput
13
Port Of Montreal Throughput
18
Table: Major Port Data, 2011-2018
21
Table: Trade Overview, 2011-2018
22
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2011-2018
23
Table: Top Import Destinations, 2007-2012, US$mn
24
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2007-2012, US$mn
25
Market Overview
26
Canada Q114
26
Industry Trends And Developments
33
Canada - Q114
33
Company Profile
38
Teekay
38
Shipping - Global Industry View
43
Container Demand: Growth Outlook To Bolster 2014 Box Volumes
43
Container Supply: Overcapacity To Remain An Issue In 2014
53
Container Rates: Volatile As Demand Ticks Up, But Oversupply Remains
62
Table: Shipping Lines' Agents Offices Raided In Russia
67
Global Company Strategy
70
Maersk Line
70
Mediterranean Shipping Company
80
CMA CGM
86
Evergreen Line
94
COSCO Container Lines Company
101
Macroeconomic Forecasts
108
Economic Activity
108
Table: Canada - Gdp By Expenditure, Real Growth %
110
GDP By Expenditure
110
Risks To Outlook
113
Table: Canada Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
114
Demographic Forecast
115
Demographic Outlook
115
Table: Canada's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
116
Table: Canada's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
117
Table: Canada's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
118
Table: Canada's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
118

The Canada Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Canada.

BMI's Canada Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Canada.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Canada to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Canadian shipping market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Canada through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Market Overview

Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).

Company Profiles

Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc