Business Monitor International


Canada Power Report

Published 15 January 2015

  • 74 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Canada Power Report

BMI View : We maintain our moderately positive outlook for Canada's power sector, which we expect to remain more attractive relative to other mature markets in North America and Western Europe (NAWE) over the coming decade. Our view is premised on Canada's stable electricity consumption figures and robust hydro power project pipeline, coupled with strong growth in natural gas-fired generation . Consequently , the main risk to our power generatio n forecasts is represented by lower gas production expectations due to falling oil prices, which could create feedstock supply bottlenecks for Canada's growing gas-fired power fleet. While the renewables sector will continue growing in provinces which offer incentives to developers, we forecast nuclear generation to decrease over the coming decade as existing reactors are retired or refurbished.

Our Country Risk team expects Canada's real GDP to grow at an annual average of over 2.0% through to 2023, with strengthening private consumption and fixed investment supporting domestic power demand. This relatively strong economic growth, in addition to continued demographic expansion, supports our forecast for power consumption to grow by an annual average rate of 0.97% between 2014 and 2023 - well above the average within NAWE power sector.

We expect total generation in the country to expand by an annual average rate of 0.80% during our 10-year forecast period. This slow growth reflects a reduction in coal-fired generation for environmental reasons and the retirement or refurbishment of Canada's aging nuclear reactors. However, those reductions will be more than offset by growth in the hydropower, natural gas-fired and renewable generation. As a result, we forecast shifts in the country's power generation mix, with the share of coal to decrease in favour of a larger share of renewables and natural gas.

Key T rends A nd D evelopments

  • While we expect coal-fired generation to shrink by an average annual rate of...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Canada Snapshot
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Canada 2013-2018)
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Canada 2018-2023)
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
10
Canada Power Forecast Scenario
11
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
11
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Canada 2012-2017)
11
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Canada 2018-2023)
12
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Canada 2012-2017)
14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Canada 2018-2023)
15
Table: Canada's Operating Nuclear Power Reactors
19
Table: Planned And Proposed Canadian Nuclear Power Reactors
20
Electricity Consumption
22
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Canada 2012-2017)
22
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Canada 2018-2023)
23
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
25
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Canada 2012-2017)
25
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Canada 2018-2023)
25
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Canada 2012-2017)
25
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Canada 2018-2023)
25
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
27
North America And Western Europe Power Risk/Reward Ratings
27
Table: North America And Western Europe Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
34
Canada Power Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Rewards
35
Risks
35
Market Overview
37
Key Policies And Market Structure
37
Regulation And Competition
37
Table: Canadian Power Industry - Structural Models
38
Table: Canadian Power Industry - Regulation
39
Sustainable Energy Policies
39
Pricing
41
Canada Power Projects Database
42
Table: Major Projects - Power
42
Competitive Landscape
54
BC Hydro
54
EPCOR
55
Hydro One
55
Maritime Electric
56
Ontario Power
56
Newfoundland Power
57
Nova Scotia Power
57
SaskPower
57
Enmax
58
Energie NB Power
58
ATCO
58
Regional Overview
60
North America And Western Europe Regional Overview
60
Glossary
68
Table: Glossary Of Terms
68
Methodology
69
Methodology And Sources
69
Industry Forecast Methodology
69
Sources
72
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
72
Table: Power Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
73
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
74

The Canada Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Canada Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Canada to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Canada's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Canada.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc