Business Monitor International


Canada Power Report

Published 09 April 2014

  • 67 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Canada Power Report

BMI View :   Although e conomic growth in Canada will gradually accelerate over the next few years , helped by a continued expansion in private consumption and a return to posi tive growth in fixed investment, according to our country risk analysts the   growth outlook for the country , remains b elow consensus expectations, reflecting BM I's concerns about high household leverage, declining commodity prices, and recent weakness in US economic data. With power demand highly correlated to economic activities , we therefore anticipate that the country's power consumption will see a positive growth, albeit at a mere 0.96%, in 2014 . W e also anticipate that the country's mature electricity market will see a positive but moderate rise in generation and consumption in the medium-to-long term. The replacement of old and polluting capacity will be the key drivers of this growth.   Finally, we expect overall generation to decline as Canada's power exports to its southern neighbour will decrease slightly   in future .

Our fundamental assumptions of the market continue to be relevant and therefore our short- and long-term forecasts remain mostly unchanged. Canada enjoys the advantage of a diverse and balanced electricity mix, owing to its abundant indigenous resources. Yet, and despite Canada's decision to withdraw from the Kyoto Protocol, environmental concerns are likely to weigh heavily on the country's energy agenda. Hence, in a picture similar to the one of its Southern neighbour, we expect planned shifts in the share of various fuels will be among the key drivers of new investment in the power sector.

That said, there have been a number of positive developments across every segment of the power sector:

  • We have long held the view that, although Canada's heavy reliance on coal for electricity generation and its withdrawal from of the Kyoto agreement would imply the expansion of greener technologies is not at the forefront of government...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Canada Snapshot
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Canada 2013-2018)
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Canada 2018-2023)
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
10
Canada Power Forecast Scenario
11
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
11
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Canada 2012-2017)
11
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Canada 2018-2023)
12
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Canada 2012-2017)
14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Canada 2018-2023)
15
Table: Canada's Operating Nuclear Power Reactors
20
Table: Planned And Proposed Canadian Nuclear Power Reactors
21
Electricity Consumption
23
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Canada 2012-2017)
23
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Canada 2018-2023)
23
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
25
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Canada 2012-2017)
25
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Canada 2018-2023)
25
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Canada 2012-2017)
25
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Canada 2018-2023)
25
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
27
Developed States Power Risk/Reward Ratings
27
Table: North America And Western Europe Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
34
Canada Power Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Rewards
35
Risks
35
Market Overview
37
Key Policies And Market Structure
37
Regulation And Competition
37
Table: Canadian Power Industry - Structural Models
38
Table: Canadian Power Industry - Regulation
39
Sustainable Energy Policies
39
Pricing
41
Canada Power Projects Database
42
Table: Major Projects - Power
42
Competitive Landscape
51
BC Hydro
51
EPCOR
51
Hydro One
52
Maritime Electric
52
Ontario Power
53
Newfoundland Power
53
Nova Scotia Power
53
SaskPower
54
Enmax
54
Energie NB Power
54
ATCO
54
Regional Overview
56
North America And Europe Regional Overview
56
Glossary
65
Table: Glossary Of Terms
65
Methodology
66
Methodology And Sources
66
Industry Forecast Methodology
66
Sources
69
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
69
Table: Power Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
70
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
72

The Canada Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Canada Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Canada to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Canada's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Canada
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:

Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.

Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview

This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Rankings

BMI's Power Risk/reward Rankings provide fully comparable rankings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc