Business Monitor International


Canada Oil & Gas Report

Published 14 March 2014

  • 166 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Canada Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Increasingly challenging economics could slow the growth of oil-sands driven production, although we note that liquid s -rich shales could be the new engine of liquid output growth . Exploration in the country's offshore acreage and unconventional resources could unearth more oil and gas reserves to support the country's long-term growth prospects. The outlook for Canada's oil and gas industry is still a positive one, though its upstream potential needs more support from the community and the government for infrastructure development.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Canada's oil and gas sector are:

  • The abundance of gas production provides Canada with considerable export potential. More LNG export projects continue to emerge, with Kitsault Energy and a consortium led by Nexen the latest companies to file for an export application from a British Columbia (BC) site.

  • Canada's oil and gas infrastructure face bottlenecks that need to be addressed to move oil and gas more effectively across the country, and out of it. Otherwise, the country will be faced with the paradox of being over-supplied with oil and gas, but prevented from exporting these due to the supply shortages that exports could pose to the domestic consumption needs of particular regions of the country. The approval of TransCanada's 1.1mn barrel (bbl) Energy East pipeline would increase the flow of western Canadian crude to the Eastern refining centres.

  • We are seeing a growing trend of crude-by-rail shipments to circumvent the limitations in pipeline capacity. Strong growth in Canadian crude exports by rail is playing a critical role in transporting heavy crude produced from oil sands to the refineries on the US Gulf Coast configured to process it. This alternative mid-stream route will see strong short-term growth, at least until an alternative pipeline solution is found.

  • We continue to see a threat to growing oil reserves from oil sands projects. Due to...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Oil And Gas Reserves
10
Table: Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
10
Table: Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
11
Table: Shale Resource-In-Place, Alberta
15
Crude Oil Supply And Demand
17
Table: Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
17
Table: Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
19
Refining And Oil Products Trade
23
Table: Refining - Production And Consumption, 2012-2017
23
Table: Refining - Production And Consumption: Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
24
Gas Supply And Demand
29
Table: Canada Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
29
Table: Canada Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
30
LNG
33
Table: Status Of LNG Export Projects Proposed
34
Table: Proposed/Planned LNG Export Projects In Canada
36
Revenues/Import Costs
37
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
37
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
39
North America And Western Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
39
Table: Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
40
Western Europe Languishes Without Shale Outlook
42
Downstream: US Comes Out Tops
44
Table: Oil & Gas Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
44
Table: North America & Western Europe States Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
50
Canada - Risk/Reward Ratings
51
Canada Upstream Rating - Overview
51
Canada Upstream Rating - Rewards
51
Canada Upstream Rating - Risks
51
Canada Downstream Rating - Overview
52
Market Overview
53
Canada Energy Market Overview
53
Overview/State Role
54
Licensing And Regulation
55
Table: Generic Offshore Petroleum Royalty Regime
59
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
61
Oil Refineries
61
Table: Downstream Projects
62
Service Stations
66
Oil Pipelines
66
LNG Regasification Terminals
74
LNG Liquefaction Terminals
74
Gas Pipelines
81
Gas Service Stations
83
Competitive Landscape
84
Competitive Landscape Summary
84
Table: Key Players - Oil And Gas Sector
86
Table: Key Upstream Players
86
Table: Key Downstream Players
87
Company Profile
88
Suncor
88
Shell Canada
94
Encana
99
Other Summaries
104
Regional Overview
129
North America & Western Europe Overview
129
North America
130
Table: Canadian LNG Export Terminal Project Applications
135
Europe
136
Muted Consumption Growth
141
The Difficulty In Moving Exports Along
143
Refining Capacity: A Tale Of Two Continents
144
Global Industry Overview
146
Appendix
153
North America Regional Appendix
153
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
153
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
153
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
154
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
154
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
154
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
155
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
155
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
155
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
156
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
156
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
156
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
157
Glossary
158
Table: Glossary Of Terms
158
Methodology
160
Industry Forecast Methodology
160
Source
162
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
162
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
164
Table: Weighting
166

The Canada Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Canada including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Canada Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Canadian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Canada to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Canadian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Canadian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Canada.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc