Business Monitor International


Canada Oil & Gas Report

Published 28 July 2014

  • 166 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Canada Oil & Gas Report

BMI View:   The outlook for Canada's oil and gas industry is still a positive one, though its upstream potential needs more support from the community and the government for infrastructure development.   Indeed, challenging project economics could slow the growth of oil-sands driven production, weighing on total hydrocarbon output. That said, while this acts as a significant downside risk, we also note risks to the upside as well, with potential for exploration in the country's offshore acreage and unconventional resources to unearth more oil and gas reserves to support the country's long-term growth prospects .  

The main trends and developments we highlight for Canada's oil and gas sector are:

  • The abundance of gas production provides Canada with considerable export potential, with a number of LNG export terminals having been approved by the National Energy Board thus far. 

  • However, Canada's oil and gas infrastructure face bottlenecks that need to be addressed to move oil and gas more effectively across the country. The approval of TransCanada's Energy East pipeline would increase the flow of western Canadian crude to the Eastern refining centres, though we note that the potential for local opposition remains high. We are also seeing a trend of crude-by-rail shipments to circumvent the limitations in pipeline capacity. However, a recent move to increase regulation after a series of derailments and explosions may modestly slow the growth of this type of transportation. Ultimately, the lack of sufficient midstream infrastructure is putting downward pressure on WCS prices, and presents risks to production in the form of less favourable project economics.

  • Canada's proven oil reserves are expected to trend modestly lower from 173.2bn bbl at the beginning of 2014 to 168.3bn bbl in 2018 due to a slowdown in oil sands investment. However, thereafter we expect reserves to hold around this level thanks to additions from liquids-rich shale developments,...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Table: Upstream Projects
10
Oil And Gas Reserves
13
Table: Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data: Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
13
Table: Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data: Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
14
Table: Shale Resource-In-Place, Alberta
17
Oil Supply And Demand
19
Table: Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports: Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
19
Table: Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports: Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
20
Gas Supply And Demand
23
Table: Canada Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports: Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
23
Table: Canada Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports: Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
24
LNG
27
Table: Proposed/Planned LNG Export Projects In Canada
28
Refining And Oil Products Trade
28
Table: Refining - Production And Consumption: Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2016
28
Table: Refining - Production And Consumption: Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
29
Revenues/Import Costs
31
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
31
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
33
Canada - Risk/Reward Ratings
33
Canada Upstream Rating - Overview
33
Canada Upstream Rating - Rewards
33
Canada Upstream Rating - Risks
33
Canada Downstream Rating - Overview
33
Developed States - Risk/Reward Ratings
33
Table: Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Looking Downstream
36
Table: Oil & Gas Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Upside Potential
38
Table: Developed States Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
39
Market Overview
40
Canada Energy Market Overview
40
Overview/State Role
41
Licensing And Regulation
41
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
46
Oil Refineries
46
Table: Downstream Projects
46
Service Stations
50
Oil Pipelines
51
LNG Regasification Terminals
56
LNG Liquefaction Terminals
56
Gas Pipelines
60
Competitive Landscape
63
Table: Key Players - Oil And Gas Sector
64
Table: Key Upstream Players
64
Table: Key Downstream Players
65
Company Profile
66
Suncor
66
Royal Dutch Shell
71
Encana
75
Other Summaries
79
Regional Overview
99
Developed States Energy Market Overview
99
Global Industry Overview
106
Global Energy Market Overview
106
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts & Bloomberg Analyst Consensus, Average Price (US$/bbl)
107
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts
113
Appendix
115
Industry Forecast
115
Table: Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d)
115
Table: Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
115
Table: Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d)
116
Table: Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
116
Table: Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d)
116
Table: Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
116
Table: Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm)
117
Table: Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
117
Table: Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm)
117
Table: Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
118
Table: Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm)
118
Table: Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
118
Glossary
119
Table: Glossary Of Terms
119
Methodology
121
Energy Industry
122
Cross checks
122
Sources
123

The Canada Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Canada including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Canada Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Canadian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Canada to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Canadian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Canadian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Canada.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc