Business Monitor International


Canada Oil & Gas Report

Published 27 October 2014

  • 166 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Canada Oil & Gas Report

BMI View:  The outlook for Canada's oil and gas industry is still positive given the country's vast reserves, though upstream and midstream projects need more support from the community and the government to develop much-needed infrastructure. The greatest threat to these developments is the challenging project economics that could hamper the growth of oil sands-driven production,  weighing on total hydrocarbon output. That said, while this dynamic presents a significant downside risk, we also note upside risks, with  potential for  exploration of the country's vast offshore  acreage and unconventional resources to unearth more oil and gas reserves, supporting Canada's long-term growth prospects. 

Headline Forecasts (Canada 2012-2018)
  2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 3,783.5 4,000.1 4,153.3 4,277.9 4,370.6 4,465.4 4,525.3
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 1,927.0 1,888.5 1,888.5 1,945.1 1,945.1 1,945.1 1,935.4
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 2,337.0 2,370.6 2,424.3 2,473.5 2,523.7 2,572.8 2,598.0
Dry natural gas production, bcm 157.6 154.4 151.4 149.8 148.3 149.8 152.8
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 86.6 89.5 91.5 93.7 96.0 98.2 100.3
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI

Click here to explore data

The main trends and developments we highlight for Canada's oil and gas sector are:

  • Canada's proven oil reserves are expected to trend lower from 173.2bn bbl at the beginning of 2014 to 168.4bn bbl in 2018 due to a slowdown in oil sands investment. However, we expect reserves to hold around this level thereafter, thanks to new liquids-rich shale developments.

  • The abundance of gas production provides Canada with considerable export potential, with seven LNG export terminals having been approved by the National Energy Board...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
9
Oil And Gas Reserves
9
Table: Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
9
Table: Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
10
Table: Shale Resources-In-Place, Alberta
14
Crude Oil Supply And Demand
15
Table: Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
15
Table: Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
16
Refining And Oil Products Trade
19
Table: Refining - Production And Consumption, 2012-2017
19
Table: Refining - Production And Consumption: Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
20
Gas Supply And Demand
24
Table: Canada Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
24
Table: Canada Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
25
LNG
27
Table: Status Of LNG Export Projects Proposed
28
Table: Proposed/Planned LNG Export Projects In Canada
29
Revenues/Import Costs
30
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
30
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
31
North America And Western Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
31
Table: North America & Western Europe States Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
32
Upstream: US Catches Up To Canada
32
Table: Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
33
Western Europe Upstream Languishes Without Shale Outlook
35
Downstream: US Comes Out Tops
37
Table: Oil & Gas Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Canada - Risk/Reward Ratings
42
Canada Upstream Rating - Overview
42
Canada Upstream Rating - Rewards
42
Canada Upstream Rating - Risks
42
Canada Downstream Rating - Overview
43
Market Overview
44
Canada Energy Market Overview
44
Overview/State Role
45
Licensing And Regulation
46
Table: Generic Offshore Petroleum Royalty Regime
50
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
53
Oil Refineries
53
Table: Downstream Projects
53
Service Stations
57
Oil Pipelines
57
LNG Regasification Terminals
63
LNG Liquefaction Terminals
64
Gas Pipelines
70
Gas Service Stations
72
Competitive Landscape
74
Competitive Landscape Summary
74
Table: Key Players - Oil And Gas Sector
76
Table: Key Upstream Players
76
Table: Key Downstream Players
77
Company Profile
78
Suncor
78
Shell Canada
84
Encana
90
Other Summaries
96
Regional Overview
117
North America & Western Europe Overview
117
North America
118
Europe
122
Muted Consumption Growth
126
Refining Capacity: A Tale Of Two Continents
127
Global Industry Overview
129
Global Energy Market Overview
129
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
131
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
132
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
133
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
135
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
135
Appendix
138
North America Regional Appendix
138
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
138
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
138
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
139
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
139
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
139
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
140
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
140
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
140
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
141
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
141
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
141
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
142
Canada - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
143
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, 2012-2017, Production Breakdown
143
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2018-2023
144
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2012-2017
145
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2018-2023
146
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2012-2017
147
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2018-2023
148
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2012-2017
149
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2018-2023
149
Glossary
151
Table: Glossary Of Terms
151
Methodology
153
Industry Forecast Methodology
153
Source
155
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
155
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
157
Table: Weighting
158

The Canada Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Canada including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Canada Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Canadian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Canada to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Canadian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Canadian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Canada.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc