Business Monitor International


Canada Mining Report

Published 23 April 2014

  • 88 pages
 
$1,295.00
Canada Mining Report

BMI View:   Canada 's diversified mineral base and its status as a top destination for mining firms seeking to raise funds on capital markets will enable it to remain a   major player in the global mining industry . Indeed, the country will remain a top-ten global producer of zinc, lead, iron ore, nickel, copper, gold, silver, uranium and   potash throughout our forecast period.

Canada's strengths as a mining destination will persist in the coming years, enabling solid, if modest, industry growth to 2018. Moreover, Canada's political leadership is likely to maintain favourable tax and regulatory policies for the sector, though policies may vary across the provincial level. Still, as we forecast Chinese demand growth for metals to moderate and a see a still modest US economic recovery, Canada will need to grapple with a subdued external environment. Decreasing ore quality at some major existing mines and rising costs among major mineral exporters will lead to modest output growth, with nickel and iron ore seeing declines in 2014.

Nevertheless, we expect continued exploration and development activity across Canada's untapped resources. While Canada is less cost competitive on a per-unit-of-output basis compared to some developing-world exporters, its technological, infrastructure, and governance advantages makes it an attractive investment destination. We therefore forecast positive, though modest growth, of 1.5% on average per annum in 2014-2018.

Modest Growth In Coming Years
Canada - Mining Industry Value & Growth

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Gold: Exploration & Output To Moderate Due To Lower Prices
11
Table: Major Gold Projects
13
Juniors Still Seeing Difficulties In 2014
14
Table: Canada - Gold Production & Forecast
14
Iron Ore: Investment Outlook Solid
15
Industry To Remain Consolidated
15
Table: Current Iron Ore Projects
17
Subdued Prices & Oversupply Pose Challenges
17
Table: Iron Ore Production (mn tonnes)
18
Nickel: Modest Growth Outlook
18
Table: Select Planned Nickel Projects
20
Short-Term Upside
20
Table: Canada - Nickel Production ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
20
Zinc: Growth To Remain Slow
21
Minimal New Growth After Recent Declines
21
North Presents Riches, But Challenges Abound
22
Table: Canada - Zinc Projects
23
Table: Canada - Zinc Production
23
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
24
Colombia & Chile Remain At The Top
25
Table: Mining Risk/Reward Ratings
25
Mexico & Peru See Improvement, While Brazil Falls Back
26
Weak Prices & Poor Operating Environments Hold Others Back
27
Risk/Reward Ratings
27
Rewards
27
Industry Rewards
27
Country Rewards
27
Risks
28
Industry Risks
28
Country Risks
29
Table: Canada Mine Production & Growth
29
Regulatory Development
30
Recent Regulatory Updates
31
Local Consultation & Environmental Stewardship Remain Top Priorities
31
Table: Canada - Political Overview
32
Table: Regional Regulatory Index
33
Commodities Forecast
34
Commodity Strategy
34
Iron Ore: Fading Iron Will
34
Steel: Global Glut To Weigh On Prices
36
Aluminium: Fundamentals To Remain Weak
37
Copper: All Eyes On China
38
Lead: Outperforming Its Troubled Peers
39
Nickel: Monthly Outperformer
41
Tin: Outperforming A Weak Field
42
Zinc: Further Consolidation Likely
43
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
45
Competitive Landscape
46
Juniors Continue To Face Financing Challenges
47
Table: Canada - Largest Listed Mining Firms
48
Company Profile
49
Goldcorp
49
Latest Financial Results
51
Table: Goldcorp - Key Financial Data
52
Teck Resources
53
Latest Financial Results
55
Table: Teck - Key Financial Data
55
Barrick Gold
56
Company Strategy
57
Latest Financial Results
58
Financial Data
59
Table: Barrick - Key Financial Data
59
Address Details
60
Regional Overview
61
Americas Overview
61
1
61
2
62
Table: Americas - Regulatory Updates
63
3
64
4
65
5
68
Global Industry Overview
70
Challenges
70
Table: Mining - Select M&A Deals
74
Cause For Optimism
77
Methodology
84
Industry Forecast Methodology
84
Sources
85
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
86
Table: Mining Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
88
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
89

The Canada Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Canada Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Canada.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Canada to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Canada's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Canada.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Mining Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (mining companies and support service providers) in the regional mining market. The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:

  • Mining Industry: Industry size (US$mn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment ('000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (US$).
  • Output:Production volumes ('000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (US$mn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state .
  • Commodity Markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (US$) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2017 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), inflation (%), fiscal balance (% of GDP), trade balance (US$bn), current account (US$bn) and external debt (US$bn).

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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