Business Monitor International


Canada Mining Report

Published 28 January 2014

  • 88 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Canada Mining Report

BMI View: We forecast Canada's mining sector will see modest growth as it remains a major global player in mining investment and production. Indeed, we see t he country remaining a top 10 global producer of zinc, lead, iron ore, nickel, copper, gold, silver, uranium and potash throughout our forecast period. The country's diversified mineral deposits and consistent investment make Canada a continued destination for mining firms, while its capital markets remain a top source of funding for both Canadian and foreign firms. As a sector considered key to the Canadian economy, we expect Canada's political leadership to maintain favourable tax and regulatory policies for the sector.

We see Canada's numerous strengths as enabling continued mining industry expansion. Still, as we forecast Chinese demand growth for metals to moderate and a still fragile US economic recovery, Canada will need to grapple with a weakened external environment. However, decreasing ore quality at some major existing mines and rising costs among major mineral exporters should encourage new exploration across Canada's untapped resources. While Canada is less cost competitive on a per-unit-of-output basis compared to some developing-world exporters, its technological, infrastructure, and governance advantages makes it an attractive investment destination. We therefore forecast positive, though modest growth, of 2.4% on average per annum between 2014 and 2018.

Industry To Continue Expanding
Canada - Mining Industry Value & Year-On-Year Growth

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Gold: Exploration & Output To Moderate Due To Lower Prices
11
Table: Major Gold Projects
13
Challenges Continue For Juniors
13
Table: Canada - Gold Production & Forecast
14
Iron Ore: Investment Outlook Solid
14
Table: Current Iron Ore Projects
16
Higher Costs & Global Glut Pose Threats
16
Table: Iron Ore Production (mn tonnes)
17
Nickel: Modest Growth Outlook
18
Table: Select Planned Nickel Projects
20
Conflicting Risks
20
Table: Canada - Nickel Production ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
20
Zinc: Growth To Remain Slow
21
Minimal New Growth After 2013 Declines
21
Potential Riches Up North
22
Table: Canada - Zinc Projects
22
Table: Canada - Zinc Production
23
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
24
Risk/Reward Ratings
24
Developed Markets Show Low Risk, But Low Reward
25
Majors Facing Combination Of Tax Changes & Social Opposition
26
Second-Tier Miners To Show Little Rankings Improvement
27
Table: Americas - Mining Risk/Reward Ratings
28
Market Overview
29
Country To Remain Destination For World Mining Leaders
30
Non-metallic Materials A Growing Force
31
External Environment Main Sector Risk
32
Table: Mining Industry Value & Production
32
Regulatory Development
33
Recent Regulatory Updates
33
Priority Remains On Local Consultation & Environmental Stewerdship
34
Tax Regime
34
Table: Canada - Political Overview
35
Table: Regional Regulatory Table
36
Commodities Forecast
37
Commodity Strategy
37
Steel: Locked In Secular Downtrend
39
Aluminium: US$1,800/tonne To Provide Strong Support
39
Copper: Bearish View In Place Despite Some Recovery
40
Nickel: Despite Recent Gains, Downside Risks Dominate
42
Zinc: Channelling Support
44
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI forecasts
45
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
46
Competitive Landscape
47
Financing To Remain Tough In 2014
48
Table: Canada - Largest Listed Mining Firms
48
Company Profile
50
Goldcorp
50
Latest Financial Results
52
Table: Goldcorp - Key Financial Data
53
Teck Resources
54
Latest Financial Results
56
Table: Teck - Key Financial Data
56
Barrick Gold
58
Company Strategy
60
Latest Financial Results
61
Financial Data
61
Table: Barrick - Key Financial Data
61
Address Details
62
Regional Overview
63
Americas Overview
63
1
63
Table: Americas - Regulatory Updates
64
2
64
3
65
4
69
Global Industry Overview
71
Methodology
83
Industry Forecast Methodology
83
Sources
84
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
85
Table: Mining Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
86
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
87

The Canada Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Canada Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Canada.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Canada to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Canada's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Canada.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Mining Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (mining companies and support service providers) in the regional mining market. The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:

  • Mining Industry: Industry size (US$mn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment ('000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (US$).
  • Output:Production volumes ('000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (US$mn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state .
  • Commodity Markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (US$) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2017 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), inflation (%), fiscal balance (% of GDP), trade balance (US$bn), current account (US$bn) and external debt (US$bn).

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc