Business Monitor International


Canada Mining Report

Published 11 August 2014

  • 88 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Canada Mining Report

BMI View:   Canada 's diversified mineral base and well-developed capital markets   will enable it to remain a   major player in global mining production and financing . Indeed, the country will remain a top-ten global producer of zinc, lead, iron ore, nickel, copper, gold, silver, uranium and   potash   over the next five years.

Canada's advantages as a mining destination will persist in the coming years, enabling solid, if modest, industry growth to 2018. Moreover, Canada's political leadership is likely to maintain favourable tax and regulatory policies for the sector, though policies may vary across the provincial level. Still, the country's miners will need to grapple with a subdued external environment as Chinese demand growth for metals moderates and as US growth remains below trend.

Potash & Gold Lead Mining Sector
Canada - Minerals By Value Of Total Sector Output, 2013 (%)

Nevertheless, we expect continued exploration and development activity across Canada's untapped resources. While Canada is less cost competitive on a per-unit-of-output basis compared to some developing-world exporters, its technological, infrastructure, and governance advantages makes it an attractive investment destination. We therefore forecast positive, though modest growth, of 1.5% on average per annum in 2014-2018.

Modest Growth Ahead
Canada - Mining Industry Value & Growth

Canada will remain host to many of the world's senior and junior miners, many of which engage in both domestic and international exploration and development activities. While financing conditions have gradually improved, junior miners with weaker balance sheets and fewer exploration and development prospects will still face some financing difficulties, encouraging asset sales and consolidation within the sector.

We expect private equity (PE) investment in the mining sector to become increasingly prominent, as PE firms seek investments in mining companies deemed undervalued. Canadian tax and...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Gold: Exploration & Output To Moderate Due To Lower Prices
11
Table: Major Gold Projects
12
Financing Difficulties Alleviating, But No Return To Peak
13
Table: Gold Production Forecast (Canada 2010-2018)
14
Iron Ore: Decline In 2014 To Give Way to Tepid Growth
15
Few New Entrants
15
Table: Current Iron Ore Projects
17
Weak Prices & Continued Glut Pose Challenges
17
Table: Iron Ore Production Forecast (Canada 2010-2018)
17
Nickel: Modest Growth Outlook
18
Table: Select Planned Nickel Projects
20
Risks Weighted To Upside
20
Table: Nickel Production Forecast (Canada 2010-2018)
20
Zinc: Production Declines In Coming Quarters
20
Minimal Growth Ahead
21
North Presents Opportunities, But Challenges Abound
22
Table: Canada - Zinc Projects
23
Table: Zinc Production Forecast (Canada 2010-2018)
23
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
24
Risk/Reward Ratings
24
Rewards
24
Industry Rewards
24
Country Rewards
24
Risks
25
Industry Risks
25
Country Risks
26
Table: Mining Industry Forecasts (Canada 2010-2018)
26
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
27
Significant Rewards For Some, But Risks Abound
27
Weaker Prices To Remain Headwinds
28
Modest Shift In Rankings
29
Table: Americas - Mining Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Regulatory Development
31
Latest Updates
32
Local Consultation & Environmental Stewardship Remain Top Priorities
32
Table: Canada - Political Overview
33
Table: Regional Regulatory Index
34
Commodities Forecast
35
Commodity Strategy
35
Ferrous Metals:
35
Iron Ore: Price Slump Overdone, Stabilisation In Sight
35
Steel: Price Forecast Revised Up
36
Non-Ferrous Metals:
38
Aluminium: Recent Break Signals Multi-Month Strength
38
Copper: Subdued Prices Into Q314
39
Lead: Prices To Strengthen As Deficit Deepens
40
Nickel: H214 Rally Unlikely
41
Tin: More Resilient Than Other Metals
42
Zinc: Sustained Break Unlikely
44
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
46
Competitive Landscape
47
Improving Financing Conditions, But Challenges To Remain
48
Table: Canada - Largest Listed Mining Firms
49
Company Profile
50
Goldcorp
50
Latest Results
52
Table: Goldcorp - Key Financial Data
53
Teck Resources - Q4 2014
54
Latest Results
56
Table: Teck - Key Financial Data
56
Barrick Gold
57
Company Strategy
58
Latest Results
60
Financial Data
60
Table: Barrick - Key Financial Data
60
Address Details
61
Regional Overview
62
Mexico & Peru To Remain Top Destinations
62
Canada To Lead North American Mining
64
Frontier Markets To See Little Development
66
67
Table: Estimated 2014 Production For Top Argentine Mines
68
Chinese Investment To Continue
68
Global Industry Overview
70
Capex Cutbacks To Yield Rewards
70
M&A Activity To Pick Up
71
High Grade Opportunities In Iron Ore
72
Shifting Centre Of Growth For Platinum
73
Chinese & Indian Outbound Mineral Investment To Gather Pace
74
Shake-Up For Global Rare Earths Industry
75
Methodology
77
Industry Forecast Methodology
77
Sources
78
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
79
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
81

The Canada Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Canada Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Canada.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Canada to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Canada's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Canada.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Mining Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (mining companies and support service providers) in the regional mining market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry rankings products.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:

  • Mining Industry: Industry size (US$mn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment ('000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (US$).
  • Output:Production volumes ('000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (US$mn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state .
  • Commodity Markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (US$) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), inflation (%), fiscal balance (% of GDP), trade balance (US$bn), current account (US$bn) and external debt (US$bn).

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc