Business Monitor International


Canada Metals Report

Published 03 October 2014

  • 64 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Canada Metals Report

BMI View:   Canada's   trade relationships with both the US and Mexico will encourage   output growth in its metals industry to 2018, as the country remains a net exporter in refined metal . Increasing manufacturing and industrial activity in the latter two countries should help drive demand for metal inputs. Moreover , a weaker Canadian dollar against the US dollar should provide upside for Canadian exports.  

Our forecast for accelerating economic growth in the US and Mexico, combined with our view that the Canadian dollar (CAD) will weaken further in the coming quarters, leads us to expect the Canadian metals sector will see expansion to 2018. Indeed, we expect both the US and Mexico will experience positive trends in real GDP growth in the coming years, with automotive and general manufacturing activity picking up. We estimate 2014 real GDP growth of 2.1% and 2.6% in the US and Mexico, and forecast stronger growth of 2.6% and 3.7%, respectively, in 2015. For the period of 2015-2018, we see real GDP growth averaging 2.5% in the US and 3.8% in Mexico.

Growth To Support Metal Demand
US & Mexico - Fixed Capital Formation & Automotive Production, % chg y-o-y

After the CAD/USD exchange rate averaged 1.03 in 2013, we expect it to weaken further, averaging 1.15 in 2014 and 1.20 in both 2015 and 2016, before coming back down to 1.17 in 2017 and 1.15 in 2018. Since Canada is a significant exporter of aluminium, nickel, and steel to the US, and to a lesser extent Mexico, this exchange rate dynamic should enable Canadian exports to end users in both countries.

Increase In FDI Augurs Well For Mexican Manufacturing Growth
Mexico - FDI Into Manufacturing

On the domestic front, we forecast modestly positive fundamentals for the Canadian economy. Specifically, we expect fixed investment will become an important driver of growth over the coming years, encouraged by a recovering US economy and improving business sentiment. As such, we currently expect real GDP...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Metals SWOT
10
Industry Forecast
11
Steel: Low But Steady Growth Ahead
11
Domestic Output To Lag Demand
12
Modest Consumption Supported
13
Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Canada 2010-2018)
14
Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Canada 2005-2012)
14
Nickel: Export Demand To Support Sector
16
Indonesian Ore Ban Upside For Canada
17
Table: Refined Nickel Production & Consumption (Canada 2010-2018)
18
Aluminium: Canada To Be Top North American Supplier
18
Canada To Lead In Americas
19
Majority To Be Exported
20
Table: Aluminium Production & Consumption (Canada 2010-2018)
21
Regulatory Development
22
Recent Updates
22
Local Consultation & Environmental Stewardship To Remain Top Priorities
23
Tax Regime
23
Table: Canada Political Overview
24
Commodities Forecast
25
Commodity Strategy
25
Ferrous Metals:
25
Non-Ferrous Metals:
29
Aluminium: Prices To Remain Elevated Following Recent Dip
29
Copper: Chinese Weakness To Create Further Headwinds
30
Nickel: No Sustained Rally Ahead
32
Zinc: Subdued Short-Term Outlook Before Multi-Year Gains
35
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
36
Steel: Prices To Head Higher From 2016
37
Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast
37
Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months)
37
Long-Term Outlook
38
Production: Chinese Rationalisation Measures To Bite
39
Consumption: Slowing Demand Growth On The Horizon
40
Burgeoning Chinese Exports Will Not Last
41
Eurozone Growth Downgrade Highlights Long Road To Recovery
42
Risks To Price Forecast
42
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
43
Competitive Landscape
44
Table: Canada - Largest Listed Metals Companies
45
Company Profile
46
ArcelorMittal
46
Company Overview
48
Company Strategy
48
Latest Financial Results
50
Company Details
50
Financial Data
50
Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
50
Rio Tinto
51
Company Overview
53
Company Strategy
54
Latest Financial Results
55
Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data
57
US Steel
58
Company Overview
60
Company Strategy
60
Latest Results
61
Table: US Steel - Supply Chain Analysis
62
Table: Financial Data
63
Address Details
63
Methodology
64
Cross Checks
64

The Canada Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Canada.

BMI's Canada Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in Canada.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for Canada to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Canada metals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Canada through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company profiles on your competitors and peers.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering metals production and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's metals sector, business environment, politics and economics, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Global Metals Market Overview

Global demand, supply and price forecasts for steel and aluminium, as well as gold, copper and tin, drawing on both our industry expertise and our macroeconomic and financial market team's long-term global demand forecasts and shorter-term market views.

Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Production (`000 tonnes, US$bn), consumption (`000 tonnes, US$bn), exports (`000 tonnes, US$bn); prices (US$/tonne), and growth (%).

Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for headline country macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), industrial production index (% y-o-y average) and unemployment (% of labour force).

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc