Business Monitor International


Canada Metals Report

Published 01 April 2014

  • 64 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Canada Metals Report

BMI View: Given that much of Canada's metals production is exported, we expect the country's economic exposure to both the US and Mexico to underpin the industry's growth through 2018. Increasing manufacturing and industrial activity in both countries should help drive demand for metal inputs. Furthermore, a weaker Canadian dollar against the US dollar should provide upside for Canadian metals exporters.

Our forecast for strong economic fundamentals in Canada, the US, and Mexico, combined with a weaker Canadian dollar (CAD) in the coming years, leads us to forecast the Canadian metals sector will see expansion through 2017. After the CAD/US$ exchange rate averaged 1.04 through in 2013, we expect it to weaken further, with yearly averages of 1.15 in 2014 and 1.20 in both 2015 and 2016, before coming back down to 1.17 in 2017 and 1.15 in 2018. Since Canada is a significant exporter of aluminium, nickel, and steel to the US, and to a lesser extent Mexico, this exchange rate dynamic could boost Canadian exports to end users in the US and Mexico. We expect increasing metals demand from Canada to both the US and Mexico as both see broad recovery in their real GDP growth and increasing manufacturing and investment activities. We maintain forecasts for real GDP growth of 2.8% and 3.3% in the US and Mexico, respectively, in 2014. Looking through 2018, we see real GDP growth averaging 2.5% in the US and 3.8% in Mexico.

Housing & Business Investment Will Provide Upside For Refined Metals
US - Residential Housing & Business Equipment Investment, % of GDP

On the domestic front, we see modestly positive fundamentals for the Canadian economy. We currently see real GDP growth coming in at 2.1% for 2014 and averaging 2.2% through 2018. Industrial capacity utilisation in Canada has been heading gradually higher, though is heavily dependent on the US manufacturing sector. While US durable goods orders slipped in Q114, our forecast for stronger real GDP growth through 2014...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Metals SWOT
10
Industry Forecast
12
Steel: Low But Steady Growth Ahead
12
Production To Lag Consumption
13
Market Trends To Support Consumption
14
Table: Canada - Steel Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
15
Table: Canada - Steel Production & Consumption
15
Aluminium: Labour Disputes To Affect Production
16
Country To Remain Top Producer
17
Exports To Drive Demand For Canadian Aluminium
18
Table: Canada - Aluminium Production & Consumption (kt)
19
Nickel: Uncertainty Over External Demand & Concentrate Supply
19
Risks To Outlook
21
Table: Canada - Nickel Production & Consumption (kt)
22
Regulatory Development
23
Priority Remains On Local Consultation & Environmental Stewardship
23
Tax Regime
24
Table: Canada Political Overview
24
Commodities Forecast
26
Commodity Strategy
26
Iron Ore: Fading Iron Will
26
Steel: Global Glut To Weigh On Prices
28
Aluminium: Fundamentals To Remain Weak
29
Copper: All Eyes On China
30
Lead: Outperforming Its Troubled Peers
31
Nickel: Monthly Outperformer
33
Tin: Outperforming A Weak Field
34
Zinc: Further Consolidation Likely
35
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
36
Steel Price Forecast
37
Table: BMI Steel Forecast
37
Short-Term Outlook
37
Core View
37
Global Steel Glut To Persist
39
Production: Rationalisation In The Long Term
39
Consumption: Growth Decelerating
41
Excessive Chinese Exports
42
Growing Arbitrage Between East & West
43
Risks To Price Outlook
43
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
44
Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, US$/tonne (ave)
45
Competitive Landscape
46
Table: Canada - Largest Listed Metals Companies, FY 2013
47
Company Profile
48
US Steel
48
Recent Financial Results
50
Table: US Steel - Key Financial Data
51
ArcelorMittal
51
Company Strategy
54
Latest Financial Results
55
Company Details
56
Financial Data
56
Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
56
Rio Tinto
57
Company Overview
59
Company Strategy
60
Latest Financial Results
61
Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data
62
Methodology
63
Cross Checks
63

The Canada Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Canada.

BMI's Canada Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in Canada.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for Canada to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Canada metals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Canada through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company profiles on your competitors and peers.

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering metals production and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's metals sector, business environment, politics and economics, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Global Metals Market Overview

Global demand, supply and price forecasts for steel and aluminium, as well as gold, copper and tin, drawing on both our industry expertise and our macroeconomic and financial market team's long-term global demand forecasts and shorter-term market views.

Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Production (`000 tonnes, US$bn), consumption (`000 tonnes, US$bn), exports (`000 tonnes, US$bn); prices (US$/tonne), and growth (%).

Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2017 for headline country macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), industrial production index (% y-o-y average) and unemployment (% of labour force).

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc