Business Monitor International


Canada Metals Report

Published 08 July 2014

  • 64 pages
 
$1,295.00
Canada Metals Report

BMI View:   Canada's   trade relationships with both the US and Mexico will encourage   output growth in its metals industry to 2018, as the country remains a net exporter in refined metal . Increasing manufacturing and industrial activity in the latter two countries should help drive demand for metal inputs. Moreover , a weaker Canadian dollar against the US dollar should provide upside for Canadian exports.  

Our forecast for accelerating economic growth in the US and Mexico, combined with our view that the Canadian dollar (CAD) will weaken further in the coming quarters, leads us to expect the Canadian metals sector will see expansion to 2018. Indeed, we expect both the US and Mexico will experience positive trends in real GDP growth in the coming years, with automotive and general manufacturing activity picking up. We estimate 2014 real GDP growth of 2.1% and 2.6% in the US and Mexico, and forecast stronger growth of 2.6% and 3.7%, respectively, in 2015. For the period of 2015-2018, we see real GDP growth averaging 2.5% in the US and 3.8% in Mexico.

Growth To Support Metal Demand
US & Mexico - Fixed Capital Formation & Automotive Production, % chg y-o-y

After the CAD/USD exchange rate averaged 1.03 in 2013, we expect it to weaken further, averaging 1.15 in 2014 and 1.20 in both 2015 and 2016, before coming back down to 1.17 in 2017 and 1.15 in 2018. Since Canada is a significant exporter of aluminium, nickel, and steel to the US, and to a lesser extent Mexico, this exchange rate dynamic should enable Canadian exports to end users in both countries.

Increase In FDI Augurs Well For Mexican Manufacturing Growth
Mexico - FDI Into Manufacturing

On the domestic front, we forecast modestly positive fundamentals for the Canadian economy. Specifically, we expect fixed investment will become an important driver of growth over the coming years, encouraged by a recovering US economy and improving business sentiment. As such, we currently expect real GDP...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
11
Metals SWOT
11
Industry Forecast
13
Steel: Low But Steady Growth Ahead
13
Production To Lag Consumption
14
Consumption To Remain Supported
15
Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Canada 2010-2018)
16
Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Canada 2005-2012)
16
Aluminium: Labour Disputes To Affect Production
17
Country To Remain Top Producer
18
Majority Of Aluminium To Be Exported
19
Table: Aluminium Production & Consumption (Canada 2010-2018)
20
Nickel: Uncertainty Over External Demand & Concentrate Supply
20
Indonesia To Present Upside For Canada
22
Table: Refined Nickel Production & Consumption (Canada 2010-2018)
23
Regulatory Development
24
Local Consultation & Environmental Stewardship To Remain Priorities
24
Tax Regime
25
Table: Canada Political Overview
25
Commodities Forecast
27
Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast
27
Short-Term Outlook
27
Core View
28
Surplus Set To Slim
28
Production: Reining In Growth
29
Consumption: Deceleration Ahead
31
No Respite From Chinese Exports Over Coming Months
33
Arbitrage Set To Grow Between East And West
33
Risks To Price Outlook
34
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
35
Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, USD/tonne (average)
35
Commodity Strategy
37
Ferrous Metals:
37
Iron Ore: Price Slump Overdone, Stabilisation In Sight
37
Steel: Price Forecast Revised Up
38
Non-Ferrous Metals:
40
Aluminium: Recent Break Signals Multi-Month Strength
40
Copper: Subdued Prices Into Q314
41
Lead: Prices To Strengthen As Deficit Deepens
42
Nickel: H214 Rally Unlikely
43
Tin: More Resilient Than Other Metals
44
Zinc: Sustained Break Unlikely
46
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
47
Competitive Landscape
49
Table: Canada - Largest Listed Metals Companies
49
Company Profile
51
US Steel
51
Recent Financial Results
53
Table: US Steel - Key Financial Data
54
ArcelorMittal
55
Company Overview
57
Company Strategy
57
Latest Financial Results
59
Company Details
59
Financial Data
59
Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
59
Rio Tinto
60
Company Overview
62
Company Strategy
63
Latest Financial Results
64
Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data
65
Methodology
66
Cross Checks
66

The Canada Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Canada.

BMI's Canada Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in Canada.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for Canada to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Canada metals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Canada through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company profiles on your competitors and peers.

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering metals production and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's metals sector, business environment, politics and economics, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Global Metals Market Overview

Global demand, supply and price forecasts for steel and aluminium, as well as gold, copper and tin, drawing on both our industry expertise and our macroeconomic and financial market team's long-term global demand forecasts and shorter-term market views.

Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Production (`000 tonnes, US$bn), consumption (`000 tonnes, US$bn), exports (`000 tonnes, US$bn); prices (US$/tonne), and growth (%).

Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2017 for headline country macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), industrial production index (% y-o-y average) and unemployment (% of labour force).

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