BMI View: We have marginally downgraded our forecast for 2014 construction industry growth to 2.0%, based on continued weakness expected in residential and non-residential building, as well as the potential for a relative slowdown in infrastructure activity as projects progress through the construction phase. Over the medium term however, we see considerable upside to our construction forecast based on the CAD53bn New Building Canada Plan.
With 2013 construction industry value growth coming in largely in line with expectations (1.4% versus BMI estimate of 1.6%), we have only marginally downgraded our 2014 forecast, to 2.0% from 2.2% previously. We do not see any reversal in the weakness reported in the residential and non-residential building segment, although we do see scope for a temporary pick-up in housing at the start of 2014, based on a pick-up in residential building permits in Q413. However, we believe the increased cost of capital and the continued deceleration in growth in the industry overall, will mean a revival in growth rates to previous highs are not likely for the segment.
Infrastructure is expected to remain the strongest force behind growth, with a large number of projects under construction. However, a number of these are in the final stages, raising some concerns over the sustainability of the project backlog. The New Building Canada Plan does present substantial upside to this slowing growth trend over the medium term for the sub-sector, as well as continued demand for new infrastructure from the natural resource segment. Unlocking this potential through improved regulations, timely distribution of funding and well-planned projects will be key to factoring growth potential into our ten-year forecast to 2023.
Infrastructure Foundation For Growth
Infrastructure remains a fundamental element of Canada's construction industry growth, with a project pipeline in excess of US$160bn. Infrastructure growth should remain stable and solid, at...
The Canada Infrastructure Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.
BMI's Canada Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Canadian infrastructure and construction industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Canada to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Canadian infrastructure market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Canadian infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Canada.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
These are broken down into Construction (social, commercial and residential), Transport (roads, railways, ports, airports etc), and Energy & Utilities (powerplants, renewable projects, pipelines and so on).
Analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sector (covering the transport, utilities and commercial construction sub-sectors) - including:
Market Overview:Analysis of the key elements driving developments, including evaluations of current capacity and future requirements.
Building Materials Overview
The building materials overview provides industry trend analysis on the global and regional demands for building materials and the impact of this on the emerging and developed markets.
Business Environment Ratings
BMI's Infrastructure Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) in the regional infrastructure market.
The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data point.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry & Economic Forecasts
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:
Construction: Industry value (US$bn); contribution to GDP (%); employment (`000); real growth (%).
Infrastructure: Value (US$bn); contribution to construction industry (%); real growth (%) of transport infrastructure (broken down by railways, airports, roads and bridges, ports and harbours) and energy and utilities (broken down by power plants and transmission grids, oil and gas pipelines, and water infrastructure).
Economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (US$bn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against US$).
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.