BMI View: We have further downgraded our immediate growth outlook for Canada 's construction industry value , with 1.6% and 2.2% expected in 2013 and 2014 respectively. While infrastructure continues to post strong and stable growth in line with our expectations, a surge in non-residential permits has failed to translate into activity on the ground, and despite a rebound in the housing market, this has not translated into the new build market to the extent anticipated. Over the medium term we expect infrastructure to remain the driving force behind industry growth.
Below trend construction industry data has prompted us to downgrade our 2013 forecast for industry growth. While we remain positive over the infrastructure and broader construction sector in Canada over the medium term, we expect a weaker output over the near term as a result of weakness in the residential and non-residential building sector. Following a market correction in 2013 and 2014, we expect overall construction sector growth to return to trend, with annual average growth of 3.2% anticipated between 2015 and 2022 (compared to 3.4% experienced on average between 2003 and 2012).
Infrastructure Foundation For Growth
Infrastructure remains a fundamental element of Canada's construction industry growth, with a project pipeline in excess of US$120bn. Infrastructure growth should remain stable and solid, at around 4.5% over the medium term. There remains upside potential from major pipeline projects.
One of the strongest sub-sectors over our 10-year forecast period to 2022 will be railways, where a project pipeline worth US$36bn will drive annual average industry value real growth of 5.5% between 2013 and 2027. This growth will be driven primarily by urban rail projects, including the CAD8.2bn Eglinton Crosstown Light Rail Transit project, the US$2.6bn Toronto Subway Spadina line expansion, the US$2.1bn Ottawa Light Rail project and the US$1.8bn Edmonton Light Rail project.
There is further upside...
The Canada Infrastructure Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.
BMI's Canada Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Canadian infrastructure and construction industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Canada to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Canadian infrastructure market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Canadian infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Canada.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
These are broken down into Construction (social, commercial and residential), Transport (roads, railways, ports, airports etc), and Energy & Utilities (powerplants, renewable projects, pipelines and so on).
Analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sector (covering the transport, utilities and commercial construction sub-sectors) - including:
Market Overview:Analysis of the key elements driving developments, including evaluations of current capacity and future requirements.
Building Materials Overview
The building materials overview provides industry trend analysis on the global and regional demands for building materials and the impact of this on the emerging and developed markets.
Business Environment Ratings
BMI's Infrastructure Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) in the regional infrastructure market.
The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data point.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry & Economic Forecasts
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:
Construction: Industry value (US$bn); contribution to GDP (%); employment (`000); real growth (%).
Infrastructure: Value (US$bn); contribution to construction industry (%); real growth (%) of transport infrastructure (broken down by railways, airports, roads and bridges, ports and harbours) and energy and utilities (broken down by power plants and transmission grids, oil and gas pipelines, and water infrastructure).
Economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (US$bn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against US$).
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.