Economic growth in Canada will continue to accelerate in the coming years, having come in above our expectations in 2013, which is good news for the country's freight industry. The economy posted 2.0% real GDP growth last year, exceeding our 1.7% estimate. This was partly thanks to a stronger net export contribution, as well as continued growth in household consumption. Annualised real GDP growth rose to 2.9% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) seasonally adjusted in Q413, an acceleration from the 2.7% growth rate recorded in Q3. Household consumption contributed 1.7 percentage points (pp) to the headline growth figure in Q4, bringing the full-year contribution to 1.3pp. Net exports added 0.2pp, with a full-year contribution of 0.3pp. We expect this trend to remain in place, with the net export contribution, set to increase to 0.7pp this year, while household consumption will contribute a somewhat lower 1.1pp to growth this year.
Exports of goods and services moderately exceeded our estimate for 1.8% real growth in 2013, coming in at 2.1%, while imports of goods and services growth was broadly in line with our expectations at 1.1% last year. This saw net exports contribute 0.3pp to real GDP growth. Although we forecast a slight uptick in import growth to 1.5% this year, we believe that continued exchange rate depreciation will have a positive effect on non-commodity exports, particularly in light of a continued recovery in the US economy. We forecast real exports of goods and services growth of 4.0% this year, bringing the net export contribution to headline growth up to 0.7pp this year. Beyond 2014, net exports will cease to contribute to stronger growth, as imports rise more rapidly and export growth slows.
This year is set to represent a somewhat mixed bag in terms of Canada's freight industry. Performing relatively well, the road freight mode will be the outperformer in year-on-year (y-o-y) growth (4.77%), while air and rail freight are set to record fairly muted...
The Canada Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Canada Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Canadian freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Canada to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Canadian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Canada.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
Industry Trends And Developments
Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)
Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)
Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state
Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs
Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.