Business Monitor International


Canada Freight Transport Report

Published 02 May 2014

  • 95 pages
 
$1,295.00
Canada Freight Transport Report

BMI View: We expect an improvement in Canadian real GDP growth in 2014 and 2015, with expansion of 2.1% and 2.3% in those years, respectively (up from 1.7% in both 2012 and 2013). However, our forecasts are below consensus, and we expect domestic demand to come under pressure as overleveraged households take a breather, the housing market cools, and commodity prices fail to recover.

Exports of goods and services moderately exceeded our estimate for 1.8% real growth in 2013, coming in at 2.1%, while imports of goods and services growth was broadly in line with our expectations at 1.1% last year. This saw net exports contribute 0.3pp to real GDP growth. Although we forecast a slight uptick in import growth to 1.5% this year, we believe that continued exchange rate depreciation will have a positive effect on non-commodity exports, particularly in light of a continued recovery in the US economy, which is good news for Canada's freight industry. We forecast real exports of goods and services growth of 4.0% this year, bringing the net export contribution to headline growth up to 0.7pp this year. Beyond 2014, net exports will cease to contribute to stronger growth, as imports rise more rapidly and export growth slows.

We once again envisage Canada's freight transport industry to undergo mixed fortunes over the course of 2014. The shipping sector is set to witness the strongest year-on-year (y-o-y) growth by mode with the Port of Vancouver anticipated to see y-o-y tonnage throughput growth of 6.00% in 2014. Road freight will also see healthy growth in 2014, with tonnage throughput of a healthy 4.70% pencilled in. The air and rail freight sectors, however, are both set to see growth come in considerably below our GDP forecast of 2.1%.

Headline Industry Data

  • Port of Vancouver tonnage throughput is forecast to grow 6.00% in 2014. Over the medium term, to 2018, we project a 5.60% average annual increase in tonnage volumes.

  • Air freight tonnage throughput to grow 0.99%...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Freight Transport
10
Political
12
Economic
13
Industry Forecast
14
Road Freight
15
Table: Road Freight (Canada 2011-2018)
17
Rail Freight
17
Table: Rail Freight (Canada 2011-2018)
18
Inland Waterway Freight
18
Table: Inland Waterway Freight (Canada 2011-2018)
19
Air Freight
19
Table: Air Freight (Canada 2011-2018)
19
Maritime Freight
20
Table: Maritime Freight (Canada 2011-2018)
20
Trade
21
Table: Trade Overview (Canada 2011-2018)
21
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Canada 2011-2018)
22
Table: TOP IMPORT DESTINATIONS, 2004-2012, USDmn
23
Table: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS, 2004-2012, USDmn
24
Market Overview
25
Industry Trends And Developments
30
Company Profile
36
Air Canada Cargo
36
Canadian National Railway Company
40
Canadian Pacific Railway
44
Teekay
49
Political Outlook
53
Domestic Politics
53
Table: Projected House Seats By Province
54
Table: Canada - Domestic Politics
57
Long-Term Political Outlook
58
Oil Price Outlook
61
Bunker fuel
61
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Bunker Fuel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
61
The Storm Clears For Shipping
62
(Slightly) Better Times For Bunker Prices
64
Long-Term Threats Linger
65
Pressing Rotterdam & New York Harder
66
Risks To Outlook
67
Jet Fuel
68
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Jet Fuel Price Forecast, USD/bbl
68
Better Outlook Tames Price Fall
68
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volume Growth
70
Risks To Outlook
73
Diesel
74
Table: BMI Crude Oil And Diesel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
74
New York's One-Off Heat Up
74
NY: Short-Term Diesel Price Support Expected
77
Rotterdam: Green Policies Drive Diesel Forward
81
Singapore: Diesel Support With Power Risks
83
Risks To Outlook
87
Macroeconomic Forecasts
88
Economic Analysis
88
GDP By Expenditure
91
Risks To Outlook
92
Table: Canada - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %
93
Demographic Forecast
94
Table: Canada's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
95
Table: Canada's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
96
Table: Canada's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
97
Table: Canada's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
97
Methodology
98
Industry Forecast Methodology
98
Sector-Specific Methodology
99
Sources
100

The Canada Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Canada Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Canadian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Canada to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Canadian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Canada.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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