Business Monitor International


Canada Freight Transport Report

Published 04 February 2014

  • 95 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Canada Freight Transport Report

Canada's freight transport industry is to undergo mixed fortunes during 2014, with the maritime sector set to witness the strongest year-on-year (y-o-y) growth by mode - the Port of Vancouver is projected to see annual tonnage throughput growth of 6.0% in 2014, while the smaller Port of Prince Rupert is anticipated to perform even better (8.31%). Road freight will also perform steadily in 2014, with tonnage throughput of a healthy 4.69% pencilled in.

However, air and rail freight are both set to see growth come in below our GDP forecast of 2.1%. Our forecasts are below consensus, and we expect domestic demand to come under pressure as overleveraged households take a breather, the housing market cools, and commodity prices fail to recover.

Headline Industry Data

  • Port of Vancouver tonnage throughput is forecast to grow 6.00% in 2014. Over the medium term, to 2018, we project a 5.60% average annual increase in tonnage volumes.

  • Air freight tonnage throughput to grow 1.07% in 2014, with average growth of 1.23% during our forecast period.

  • Rail tonnes-per-km to grow 0.39% in 2014, with average growth of 0.45% during our forecast period.

  • Road freight tonnes-per-km to grow 2.98% in 2014, with average growth of 3.3% over our forecast period.

Key Industry Trends

Canada-Europe FTA Will Benefit Montreal Throughput - The signing of a free trade agreement (FTA) between Canada and the European Union at the end of 2013 provides a high degree of opportunity for transatlantic trade between the two, with the port of Montreal on the country's eastern coast well positioned to benefit from the deal. The UK and Europe together make up the largest share of cargo traffic at Montreal; we believe that tariff-free access between importers and exporters from both offers upside risk to Montreal's throughput over the medium to longer term.

Prince George Airport To Improve Infrastructure - Prince George Airport in Canada is in the process of improving its infrastructure as the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Freight Transport
10
Economic
12
Political
13
Industry Forecast
14
Road Freight
15
Table: Road Freight, 2011-2018
17
Rail Freight
17
Table: Rail Freight, 2011-2018
18
Inland Waterway Freight
18
Table: Inland Waterway Freight, 2011-2018
19
Air Freight
19
Table: Air Freight, 2011-2018
20
Maritime Freight
20
Table: Maritime Freight
21
Trade
21
Table: Trade Overview, 2011-2018
21
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2011-2018
22
Table: Top Import Destinations, 2005-2012, US$mn
23
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2005-2012, US$mn
24
Market Overview
25
Industry Trends And Developments
28
Company Profile
34
Air Canada Cargo
34
Canadian National Railway Company
38
Canadian Pacific Railway
42
Teekay
46
Political Outlook
51
Political Risk Analysis
51
Table: Canada - Domestic Politics
53
Long-Term Political Outlook
54
Oil Price Outlook
57
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
57
Table: 2013 Oil Product Price Forecast Record
57
Methodology
59
Crude Price Forecasts
60
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
60
Oil Product Price Forecasts
60
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecast, US$/bbl
61
Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads
62
Weak Demand Persists
63
Supply: Global Capacity Supports Demand
64
Quarterly Prices
68
Table: BMI Refined Oil Products Quarterly Forecast, US$/bbl
68
Naphtha: Long-Term Growth Faces Headwinds From Gas
69
Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Gasoline Weakness To Continue
71
Jet Fuel: Downward Movement Capped By Recovery
77
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes
79
Bunker Fuels: Sulphur Control To Hit Rotterdam Hardest
79
Risks To Outlook
81
Macroeconomic Forecasts
82
Economic Activity
82
Table: Canada - Gdp By Expenditure, Real Growth %
84
GDP By Expenditure
84
Risks To Outlook
87
Table: Canada Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
88
Demographic Forecast
89
Demographic Outlook
89
Table: Canada's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
90
Table: Canada's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
91
Table: Canada's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
92
Table: Canada's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
92
Methodology
93
Industry Forecast Methodology
93
Sector-Specific Methodology
94
Sources
95

The Canada Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Canada Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Canadian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Canada to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Canadian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Canada.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc