Business Monitor International


Canada Freight Transport Report

Published 02 September 2014

  • 95 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Canada Freight Transport Report

BMI maintains its positive outlook for Canada's freight transport sector for 2015. The country benefits from a strong commodities mix, as well as growing private consumption levels. In recent months, the country has benefitted from freight volumes being diverted away from US ports as shippers try to avoid both the US harbour tax and the chaos and delays caused by labour disputes at US ports.

Canada's economy will be driven by relatively strong household spending and higher fixed investment growth over the coming years. Slower fixed investment growth has previously placed most of the emphasis for economic expansion on private consumption and net exports of goods and services, providing a boost for freight volumes. Canada's diversified mineral base and its status as a top destination for mining firms seeking to raise funds on capital markets will enable it to remain a major player in the global mining industry. Indeed, the country will remain a top-ten global producer of zinc, lead, iron ore, nickel, copper, gold, silver, uranium and potash throughout our forecast period. Canada's strengths as a mining destination will persist in the coming years, enabling solid industry growth in freight transport to 2019.

Headline Industry Data

  • Port of Vancouver tonnage throughput is forecast to contract 2.4% in 2015. Over the medium term, to 2019, we project a 2.9% average annual increase in tonnage volumes.

  • Air freight tonnage throughput to grow 1.1% in 2015, with average growth of 1.2% during our medium-term forecast period to 2019.

  • Rail freight tonnage to grow 2.4% in 2015, with average growth of 2.6% during our medium-term forecast period.

  • Road freight tonnage to rise 4.8% in 2015, with average growth of 4.9% through to 2019.

Key Industry Trends

CN Faces Fine Due To Lack Of Grain Shipments

Canadian National Railway (CN) may face a fine from the Canadian government after failing to obey Ottawa's order to move a minimum amount of grain. CN says the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Freight Transport
10
Political
12
Economic
13
Industry Forecast
14
Road Freight
15
Table: Road Freight (Canada 2011-2018)
17
Rail Freight
17
Table: Rail Freight (Canada 2011-2018)
18
Inland Waterway Freight
18
Table: Inland Waterway Freight (Canada 2011-2018)
19
Air Freight
19
Table: Air Freight (Canada 2011-2018)
19
Maritime Freight
20
Table: Maritime Freight (Canada 2011-2018)
20
Trade
21
Table: Trade Overview (Canada 2011-2018)
21
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Canada 2011-2018)
22
Table: TOP IMPORT DESTINATIONS, 2004-2012, USDmn
23
Table: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS, 2004-2012, USDmn
24
Market Overview
25
Industry Trends And Developments
30
Company Profile
36
Air Canada Cargo
36
Canadian National Railway Company
40
Canadian Pacific Railway
44
Teekay
49
Political Outlook
53
Domestic Politics
53
Table: Projected House Seats By Province
54
Table: Canada - Domestic Politics
57
Long-Term Political Outlook
58
Oil Price Outlook
61
Bunker fuel
61
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Bunker Fuel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
61
The Storm Clears For Shipping
62
(Slightly) Better Times For Bunker Prices
64
Long-Term Threats Linger
65
Pressing Rotterdam & New York Harder
66
Risks To Outlook
67
Jet Fuel
68
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Jet Fuel Price Forecast, USD/bbl
68
Better Outlook Tames Price Fall
68
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volume Growth
70
Risks To Outlook
73
Diesel
74
Table: BMI Crude Oil And Diesel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
74
New York's One-Off Heat Up
74
NY: Short-Term Diesel Price Support Expected
77
Rotterdam: Green Policies Drive Diesel Forward
81
Singapore: Diesel Support With Power Risks
83
Risks To Outlook
87
Macroeconomic Forecasts
88
Economic Analysis
88
GDP By Expenditure
91
Risks To Outlook
92
Table: Canada - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %
93
Demographic Forecast
94
Table: Canada's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
95
Table: Canada's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
96
Table: Canada's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
97
Table: Canada's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
97
Methodology
98
Industry Forecast Methodology
98
Sector-Specific Methodology
99
Sources
100

The Canada Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Canada Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Canadian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Canada to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Canadian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Canada.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc