Business Monitor International


Canada Autos Report

Published 24 June 2014

  • 47 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Canada Autos Report

While our headline growth forecast for 2014 has been revised up slightly to 3.3%, the bigger revisions come in the balance between segments, with an upward revision for light truck sales and downward for passenger car sales. Our view that light truck sales will outperform is also playing out, although outpacing our initial expectations with 5M14 segment sales up 7.9% year-on-year (y-o-y).

A key driver of truck sales is the housing market, which is a key indicator of demand in this segment. Our Infrastructure team believes that while losing steam, the housing market will still contribute to a rebound in the residential construction sector in 2014 - a major source of light truck demand. We now expect light truck sales to grow 9.0% in 2014, up from our previous forecast of 3.8%. This will see the segment reach the milestone of 1mn units.

In contrast, the passenger car segment is in decline, falling 1.7% y-o-y in May. This takes segment sales for 5M14 down 3.3% y-o-y and has prompted us to revise our already conservative full-year forecast for growth of 1.2% to a contraction of 4.0%. There are some signs of outperformance in the premium segment, however, with the Jaguar and Land Rover brands achieving record monthly sales and growth of 38.9% y-o-y and 40.8% y-o-y respectively. This was the highest growth of all brands.

Over the rest of the five-year forecast period to 2018, we expect lower levels of growth, particularly as household deleveraging will need to take place over this time. While the more painful recovery has seen US debt-to-GDP fall from 95% in Q109 to 76.7% in Q413, Canadian debt-to-GDP has continued to climb, reaching 97.4% at the end of 2013. Addressing this will impact private consumption. Nevertheless, our average annual forecast of 1.8% growth in light vehicle sales for 2015-2018 is positive for a developed state and will see the market on the brink of 2mn units by 2018.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
9
Economic
10
Industry Forecast
11
Production, Sales and Trade
11
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Canada 2012-2018)
11
Production
13
Passenger Vehicles
14
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Canada 2012-2018)
14
Table: Canada - Top 10 New Light Vehicle Sales 2013 (CBUs)
15
Table: Canada - Top 10 New Light Vehicle Sales 5M14 (CBUs)
16
Commercial Vehicles
17
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Canada 2012-2018)
17
Table: Class 5 Truck Sales By Brand 2013
18
Table: Class 6 Truck Sales By Brand 2013
18
Table: Class 7 Truck Sales By Brand 2013
19
Table: Class 8 Truck Sales 2013
19
Table: Class 5 Truck Sales 4M14
20
Table: Class 6 Truck Sales 4M14
20
Table: Class 7 Truck Sales 4M14
21
Table: Class 8 Truck Sales 4M14
21
Suppliers
21
Macroeconomic Forecasts
25
Table: Canada - Economic Activity
27
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
33
Americas - Risk Reward Ratings
33
Table: Americas Autos Risk Reward Ratings
35
Company Profile
36
Industry Trend Analysis
36
Ford Motor
39
General Motors
40
Regional Overview
41
Americas Overview
41
Global Industry Overview
46
Table: Passenger Car Sales March 2014
46
European Growth Gathers Momentum
46
Japan Prepares For Tax Fallout
48
China Wobble Adds To BRIC Weakness
49
Demographic Forecast
52
Demographic Outlook
52
Table: Canada's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
53
Table: Canada's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
54
Table: Canada's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
55
Table: Canada's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
55
Methodology
56
Industry Forecasts
56
Sector-Specific Methodology
57
Sources
57
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
58
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
59

The Canada Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Canada Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Canada.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Canada to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Canadian automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Canadian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Canada.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc