Business Monitor International


Canada Autos Report

Published 29 September 2014

  • 47 pages
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$1,295.00
Canada Autos Report

Sustained lower oil prices, and the likelihood of more to come, given OPEC's decision not to cut oil output, has exacerbated the outperformance of the Canadian light truck segment in the latter months of 2014. This also means our more optimistic scenario for the passenger car segment to achieve positive growth in 2014 is looking unachievable, following a 4.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) decline in November. While we expect the segment to post positive growth in 2015, this will be marginal and indeed our average annual growth forecast of 1% for the segment to 2018 means it will stay well below its 2008 levels of over 800,000 units.

In line with our expectations, light trucks continue their outperformance of the total light vehicle market, but even more so than expected as the promise of lower fuel prices drives sales. Segment sales for November were up 9.4% y-o-y and 10.3% in 11M14, which has prompted a slight upgrade to our light truck forecast to 10% growth for 2014. We still expect the total light vehicle market to grow 5.2% as the light truck upgrade has offset the downward revision to our passenger car outlook.

Production has not been keeping step with the record sales performance. This is in line with our view of an increasingly uncompetitive production base, which is losing out to other North American hubs such as Mexico and the southern US states. While there has been investment during 2014, much of it has been new assembly lines, or retooling, rather than large-scale brand new plants.

Our five-year average outlook for production is for moderate output growth, even though total output is still far below its 2004 peak. In 2014, we now expect a 2.7% contraction in light vehicle output, having revised our projection for passenger car output down from -4.0% to -6.0%. We still expect a marginal return to growth of 2.2% in 2015, up slightly from our previous forecast of 1.5%, following news of some expansion projects.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
9
Economic
10
Industry Forecast
11
Production, Sales and Trade
11
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2018
11
Production
13
Passenger Vehicles
14
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2018
14
Table: Top 10 New Light Vehicle Sales, 2012-2013 (CBUs)
15
Table: Top 10 New Light Vehicle Sales, 8M13-8M14 (CBUs)
16
Commercial Vehicles
16
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2018
16
Table: Class 5 Truck Sales By Brand, 2012-2013
18
Table: Class 6 Truck Sales By Brand, 2012-2013
18
Table: Class 7 Truck Sales By Brand, 2012-2013
18
Table: Class 8 Truck Sales By Brand, 2012-2013
19
Table: Class 5 Truck Sales By Brand, H113-H114
20
Table: Class 6 Truck Sales By Brand, H113-H114
20
Table: Class 7 Truck Sales By Brand, H113-H114
20
Table: Class 8 Truck Sales By Brand, H113-H114
21
Suppliers
21
Macroeconomic Forecasts
23
Economic Analysis
23
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Canada 2011-2018)
29
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
31
Americas - Risk/Reward Ratings
31
Table: Americas Risk/Reward Ratings
34
Company Profile
35
Company Monitor
35
Ford Motor
38
General Motors
39
Global Industry Overview
40
Table: Passenger Car Sales May 2014 (CBUs)
40
Outperformers Boost European Outlook
40
Trucks Give North America A Lift
41
India Brings Relief To BRICs
43
Demographic Forecast
45
Demographic Outlook
45
Table: Canada's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
46
Table: Canada's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
47
Table: Canada's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
48
Table: Canada's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
48
Methodology
49
Industry Forecasts
49
Sector-Specific Methodology
50
Sources
50
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
51
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
52

The Canada Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Canada Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Canada.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Canada to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Canadian automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Canadian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Canada.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc