Business Monitor International


Canada Agribusiness Report

Published 03 October 2014

  • 123 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Canada Agribusiness Report
Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (% of Total) (2010-2018)

BMI View: Grain production will fall in Canada in 2014/15, as logistical problems during the 2013/14 season have resulted in high stocks of wheat, corn and barley. The country's livestock industry is well placed to post strong growth in 2014/15 and beyond, while we believe that the Canadian beef and pork industries will gain the most from having signed the EU-Canada Free Trade Agreement in October 2013. The dairy management system, however, could be under pressure.

  • Wheat production growth to 2017/18: 17.7% to 32.0mn tonnes. Liberalisation of the Canadian Wheat Board will increase competition between exporters and encourage farmers to boost production.

  • Sugar consumption growth to 2018: -3.9% to 1.2mn tonnes. We are moderately bearish on sugar consumption in the medium term on the back of already high per capita consumption and changing eating habits towards healthier options.

  • Poultry production growth to 2017/18: 12.2% to 1.2mn tonnes. This will be due to consumers' perception that poultry is a healthier meat, along with increasing export opportunities. High poultry prices and the recent signing of the EU-Canada Free Trade Agreement are also expected to stimulate production.

  • 2014 real GDP growth: 2.1% year-on-year (y-o-y). An increase compared with 2.0% in 2013.

  • Consumer price inflation: 1.7% y-o-y in 2014. An increase compared with 0.9% in 2013.

  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: 4.1% y-o-y increase to US$48.2bn in 2013/14. Forecast to decrease by an average of 0.1% annually between 2012/13 and 2017/18.

Industry Outlook

Traditional grains such as wheat, canola and barley will all suffer y-o-y production declines in 2014/15, as farmers switch to more specialist crops as stocks in the former group remain high. We forecast 2014/15 wheat and barley production to decline by 18.9% y-o-y and 20.4% y-o-y to 30.0mn tonnes and 8.0mn tonnes respectively. In...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Agribusiness
10
Industry Forecast
12
Grains Outlook
12
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Canada 2013-2018)
13
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Canada 2013-2018)
13
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Canada 2013-2018)
13
Table: INTENTIONS OF PRINCIPAL FIELD CROP AREAS
15
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Canada 2008-2013)
18
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Canada 2008-2013)
18
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Canada 2008-2013)
19
Sugar Outlook
20
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Canada 2013-2018)
21
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Canada 2008-2013)
23
Dairy Outlook
25
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (United States 2013-2018)
26
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (United States 2013-2018)
26
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (United States 2013-2018)
26
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (United States 2008-2013)
32
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (United States 2008-2013)
32
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (United States 2008-2013)
32
Livestock Outlook
34
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Canada 2013-2018)
35
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Canada 2013-2018)
35
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Canada 2013-2018)
36
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Canada 2008-2013)
38
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Canada 2008-2013)
38
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Canada 2008-2013)
38
Commodities Price Analysis
40
Monthly Grains Update
40
Table: Selected Commodities - Performance & Forecasts
49
Monthly Softs Update
50
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
59
Upstream Analysis
60
Americas Machinery Outlook
60
Table: Deere & Company - Agriculture & Turf Sales Growth Forecasts By Region
61
Americas GM Outlook
67
Americas Fertiliser Outlook
71
Downstream Analysis
77
Food
77
Food Consumption
77
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
78
Confectionery
78
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
80
Canned Food
81
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
81
Processed Fish
82
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
83
Frozen Fruit & Vegetables
85
Table: Frozen Fruit & Vegetables Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
86
Oils & Fats
87
Table: Oils & Fats Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
87
Dairy
89
Table: Cheese Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
90
Drink
91
Alcoholic Drinks
91
Table: Alcoholic Drink Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
92
Soft Drinks
92
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
94
Hot Drinks
94
Table: Hot Drink Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
95
Mass Grocery Retail
97
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
99
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type, %
99
Regional Overview
100
Competitive Landscape
106
Table: Canada - Major Agribusiness Companies
106
Company Profile
107
Agrium
107
Table: Agrium - Financial Results 2009-2013
115
Demographic Forecast
116
Demographic Outlook
116
Table: Canada's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
117
Table: Canada's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
118
Table: Canada's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
119
Table: Canada's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
119
Methodology
120
Industry Forecast Methodology
120
Sector-Specific Methodology
121

The Canada Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Canada Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Canada.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The Canada Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc