Business Monitor International


Canada Agribusiness Report

Published 25 March 2014

  • 123 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Canada Agribusiness Report

BMI View: Canada's position in the global grain market was reinfo rced in 2012/13 owing to better-than- expected wheat and corn production and in a context of tight supply from other major producers. For 2013/14, t he country's position has been stronger at the start of the season, when it was competing with the US and Europe, but has lost strength, as it is now competing with eastern E urope. We believe the Canadian beef and pork industries will gain the most from having signed the EU-Canada Free Trade Agreement in October 2013. The dairy management system, however, could be under pressure.

Grains & Livestock Ahead
Canada - BMI Market Value By Commodity (as % of total)
  • Wheat production growth to 2017/18: 17.6% to 32.0mn tonnes. Liberalisation of the Canadian Wheat Board will increase competition between exporters and encourage farmers to boost production.

  • Sugar consumption growth to 2018: -8.3% to 1.0mn tonnes. We are moderately bearish on sugar consumption in the medium term on the back of already high per capita consumption and changing eating habits towards healthier options.

  • Poultry production growth to 2017/18: 10.3% to 1.2mn tonnes. This will be due to consumers' perception that poultry is a healthier meat, along with increasing export opportunities. High poultry prices and the recent signing of the EU-Canada Free Trade Agreement are also expected to stimulate production.

  • 2014 real GDP growth: 2.1% year-on-year (y-o-y). An increase compared with 1.7% in 2013.

  • Consumer price inflation: 1.7% y-o-y in 2014. An increase compared with 1.0% in 2013.

  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: 2.5% y-o-y increase to US$48.8bn in 2013/14. Forecast to increase by an average of 2.2% annually between 2012/13 and 2017/18.

Industry Outlook

We have revised down our forecast for Canadian wheat production in 2014/15 to 30.0mn tonnes (from 32.0mn tonnes previously) in line with first plantings estimates from farmers in the country. Our revised...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Agribusiness
10
Industry Forecast
11
Grains Outlook
11
Table: Canada Wheat Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
12
Table: Canada Corn Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
12
Table: Canada Barley Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
12
Table: Canada Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
16
Table: Canada Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
16
Table: Canada Barley Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
16
Sugar Outlook
17
Table: Canada Sugar Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
18
Table: Canada Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
19
Dairy Outlook
20
Table: Canada Milk Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
21
Table: Canada Butter Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
21
Table: Canada Cheese Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
21
Table: Canada Milk Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
26
Table: Canada Butter Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
27
Table: Canada Cheese Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
27
Livestock Outlook
28
Table: Canada Poultry Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
29
Table: Canada Pork Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
29
Table: Canada Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
29
Table: Canada Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
32
Table: Canada Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
32
Table: Canada Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
32
Commodities Price Analysis
34
Monthly Softs Update
34
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
41
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
42
Monthly Grains Update
43
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & Forecasts
51
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
52
Upstream Analysis
53
Americas GM Outlook
53
Americas Machinery Outlook
58
Americas Fertiliser Outlook
64
Downstream Analysis
70
Food
70
Food Consumption
70
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
71
Confectionery
71
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
72
Canned Food
73
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
73
Processed Fish
74
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
74
Frozen Fruit & Vegetables
75
Table: Frozen Fruit & Vegetables Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
75
Oils & Fats
75
Table: Oils & Fats Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
76
Dairy
76
Table: Cheese Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
77
Drink
77
Alcoholic Drinks
77
Table: Alcoholic Drink Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
79
Soft Drinks
80
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
81
Hot Drinks
81
Table: Hot Drink Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
82
Mass Grocery Retail
83
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
84
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type, %
84
Regional Overview
85
Competitive Landscape
91
Table: Canada - Major Agribusiness Companies
91
Company Profile
92
Agrium
92
Table: Agrium - Financial Results 2009-2013
100
Demographic Forecast
101
Table: Canada's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
102
Table: Canada's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
103
Table: Canada's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
104
Table: Canada's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
104
Methodology
105
Industry Forecast Methodology
105
Sector-Specific Methodology
106

The Canada Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Canada Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Canada.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The Canada Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc