Business Monitor International


Cameroon Oil & Gas Report

Published 16 April 2014

  • 86 pages
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$1,295.00
Cameroon Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Cameroon is on the cusp of a significant, but possibly temporary, upswing in production led primarily by a big increase in gas. Yet it is still a country that is overlooked because the top line numbers - declining oil production, flat gas reserves and low risk and reward ratings - tend to mean investors look for greener pastures. However, mid-rank independents are having some success and the offshore has had some encouraging exploration results since 2012. We forecast production of 79,900 barrels per day ( b/d ) in crude in 2014 , representing a gain of nearly 30% over 2013. However, peak oil is just six years away in 2020, and then the decline sets in. The gas picture is also encouraging. New projects coming on stream in 2014 will boost gas volumes 40% to 0.7 bn cubic metres ( bcm ) . Then a string of previous discoveries becoming monetised in 2015 and 2016 will mean natural gas production will soar to 2.8bcm by 2016 and keep climbing through the next decade. The cautionary note is a shortage of other discoveries in inventory to maintain momentum and replace depleting reserves . However GDF Suez is bullish on an LNG export terminal by the end of the decade and that may pique upstream interest.

Here are the highlights of Cameroon's Upstream and Midstream:

Oil: We forecast crude oil production will rise in 2014 to 79,000 barrels per day (b/d), just shy of the projected 82,000b/d projected by Cameroon's national oil company (NOC) SNH. The 25% jump in production from 2013 to 2014 is attributable to the start of production from the Myia onshore field located in the Douala-Kribi-Campo basin, which began in November 2013 according to SNH officials.

Gas : Reserves growth is relatively flat at 134.4bn cubic metres (bcm), but production is ascending as is domestic consumption for power plants. After jumping over 100% in 2013, gas production in Cameroon is forecast to rise another 40% in 2014, coming in at 0.7bcm and keep rising for the coming...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Oil And Gas Reserves
10
Table: Cameroon Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2011-2016
12
Table: Cameroon Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2017-2022
13
Oil Supply And Demand
14
Table: Cameroon Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2011-2016
14
Table: Cameroon Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2017-2022
14
Gas Supply And Demand
16
Table: Cameroon Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2011-2016
16
Table: Cameroon Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2017-2022
17
Refining And Oil Products Trade
20
Table: Cameroon Refining - Production And Consumption, 2011-2016
20
Table: Cameroon Refining - Production And Consumption, 2017-2022
21
Revenues/Import Costs
22
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
22
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
24
Africa - Risk/Reward Ratings
24
Table: BMI's Africa Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
25
Riches Lie Underground, While Above-Ground Risks Continue To Loom
25
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Downstream Woes Still Weigh Down On Reward Potential
31
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
31
Cameroon - Risk/Reward Ratings
33
Market Overview
35
Cameroon Energy Market Overview
35
Table: Upstream Projects Database
36
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
37
Oil Refineries
37
Table: Refineries In Cameroon
37
Service Stations
38
Oil Storage Facilities
38
Oil Terminals/Ports
38
Oil Pipelines
38
LNG Terminals
39
Competitive Landscape
41
Competitive Landscape Summary
41
Table: Key Players - Cameroon Energy Sector
42
Table: Key Upstream Players
42
Table: Key Downstream Players
42
Company Profile
43
Perenco
43
Other Summaries
46
Regional Overview
52
Africa Overview
52
Subsalt Expectations
53
East African Gas Boom
55
Revealing Untapped Potential
57
Fuelling Development: The Downstream Race
58
Post-Revolutionary Blues
60
Global Market Views
62
Global Energy Market Overview
62
Appendix
70
Africa - Regional Appendix
70
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
70
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
71
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
71
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
72
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
73
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
73
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
74
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
75
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
75
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
76
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
77
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
77
Glossary
78
Table: Glossary Of Terms
78
Methodology
80
Industry Forecast Methodology
80
Source
82
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
82
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
84
Table: Weighting
86

The Cameroon Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Cameroon including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Cameroon Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Cameroonian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Cameroon to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Cameroonian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Cameroonian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Cameroon.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc