BMI View: We are maintaining our positive outlook for Cameroon's construction sector growth over the five - year time horizon based on a strong project pipeline and growing PPP employment. However, we note rising risks from lower commodity prices, both to the country's fiscal position, and fixed asset investment supporting natural resource extraction.
Cameroon's construction sector growth is expected to average 9.4% between 2015 and 2019, broadly in line with the high growth trend set over the previous five years. A strong project pipeline across the power and transport segments in particular is supporting this outlook, with funding coming from a combination of development funding, private investment and Chinese capital.
The limited reliance on government investment for project development will shield the construction sector from an expected economic slowdown over the next few years, primarily related to falling government revenues as a result of lower commodity prices. While we have downgraded our 2014 estimate, based on weak Q114 growth, to 8.4%, we are maintaining our medium term growth outlook.
The biggest downside risk to the sector is related to investment to support mining activity. Investment in Cameroon's iron ore resources has been a major driver of infrastructure development, however, with iron ore prices at five-year lows, and mining companies cutting capex, projects could be delayed or cancelled. Currently, we see progress continuing on major projects and therefore are maintaining our view:
In July 2014, French major EDF signed an agreement with the Cameroon government to develop a 360MW hydropower plant located at Nachtigal Falls on the Sanaga River. Construction is expected to start in early 2015 and cost USD814mn. EDF is providing 40% of the funds, with the remainder coming from the International Finance Corporation (with 34%) and the Cameroon government (26%).
In June 2014, Portugal's Mota-Engil was awarded a contract for construction...
The Cameroon Infrastructure Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.
BMI's Cameroon Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Cameroonian infrastructure and construction industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Cameroon to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Cameroonian infrastructure market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Cameroonian infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Cameroon.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
These are broken down into Construction (social, commercial and residential), Transport (roads, railways, ports, airports etc), and Energy & Utilities (powerplants, renewable projects, pipelines and so on).
Analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sector (covering the transport, utilities and commercial construction sub-sectors) - including:
Market Overview:Analysis of the key elements driving developments, including evaluations of current capacity and future requirements.
Building Materials Overview
The building materials overview provides industry trend analysis on the global and regional demands for building materials and the impact of this on the emerging and developed markets.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Infrastructure Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) in the regional infrastructure market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data point.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry & Economic Forecasts
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:
Construction: Industry value (US$bn); contribution to GDP (%); employment (`000); real growth (%).
Infrastructure: Value (US$bn); contribution to construction industry (%); real growth (%) of transport infrastructure (broken down by railways, airports, roads and bridges, ports and harbours) and energy and utilities (broken down by power plants and transmission grids, oil and gas pipelines, and water infrastructure).
Economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (US$bn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against US$).
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.