Business Monitor International


Cameroon Business Forecast Report

Published 19 November 2014

  • 41 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,195.00
Cameroon Business Forecast Report

Core Views

  • Economic expansion in Cameroon is accelerating, and we predict that real GDP grow will be 4.6% in 2014. The country's economy will outperform its Central African peers, averaging 4.8% growth between 2014 and 2018.

  • Faltering oil production and high import demand will cause Cameroon's current account deficit to widen to 6.0% in 2014. We expect the shortfall to remain relatively stable over the coming years.

  • High spending on capital projects will keep the country's fiscal deficit wide. The shortfall could expand rapidly if the government is unable to control spending on costly fuel subsidies.

  • The Banque des États de l'Afrique Centrale cut its core interest rate by 250 basis points to 3.25%. While we do not expect that the cut will have a significant impact on the regional economy, further loosening is likely in 2014.

Key Risks To Outlook

  • Escalating violence in the Central African Republic poses a threat to Cameroon's eastern province. We believe that the government will succeed in preventing a major breakdown of political authority, but a larger-than-expected influx of refugees could destabilise the region.

  • New oil discoveries could lead to a significant change to our balance of payments and government revenue forecasts.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Index
7
Domestic Politics
8
Boko Haram Will Pose Lasting Threat
Boko Haram Will Pose Lasting Threat
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
11
SWOT Analysis
11
BMI Economic Risk Index
11
Economic Activity
12
Oil Falters, But Growth Remains Robust
Oil Falters, But Growth Remains Robust
Table: Economic Activity
12
Regional Monetary Policy
14
BEAC Unable To Spur Growth
BEAC Unable To Spur Growth
Balance Of Payments
15
Current Account Deficit Set To Widen
Current Account Deficit Set To Widen
Table: Current Account
16
Regional Economic Outlook
17
Ebola: Long-Lasting And Wide-Ranging Implications
Ebola: Long-Lasting And Wide-Ranging Implications
Table: Guinea - Economic Activity
17
Table: liberia - Economic Activity
18
Table: sierra leone - Economic Activity
18
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
23
The Cameroon Economy To 2023
23
Trend Growth Will Accelerate
Trend Growth Will Accelerate
Table: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
23
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
27
Operational Risk Index
27
Operational Risk
28
Table: Operational Risk
28
Transport Network
30
Table: Sub Saharan Africa Transport Network Risk
30
Economic Openness
34
Table: Sub Saharan Africa - Economic Openness
34
Table: Product Exports, 2008-2012 (USDbn)
35
Table: Product Imports, 2008-2012 (USDmn)
36
Chapter 5: BMI Global Assumptions
39
Global Outlook
39
Reality Check: Uncertainty Reigns
39
Table: Global Assumptions
39
Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growth, %
40
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
40
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth, %
41

The Cameroon Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in The Cameroon and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of Cameroon's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Cameroon's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise Cameroon's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Cameroon, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Cameroon Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes three major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook and Business Environment.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Cameroonian economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for The Cameroon through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Cameroon Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Cameroon and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Cameroon, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in The Cameroon over the next 5-years?

BMI's The Cameroon country Risk Ratings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Cameroonian Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Cameroon.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Cameroon's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark Cameroon's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Business Environment

Business Environment Risk Ratings with SWOT Analysis - Business environment Risk Ratings for Cameroon, benchmarked against ratings for regional neighbours.

Country Competitiveness - Competitiveness of Cameroon's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability, compared with regional neighbours.

Business Environment Contents

  • Domestic Environment - Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - Analysis of foreign investment regime; foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors.
  • Foreign Trade - Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas.

Key Benefits

  • Assess your company's evolving exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI's in-depth analysis of the legal and regulatory business environment.
  • Understand your market's comparative strengths and weaknesses in the key areas of commercial infrastructure and business institutions, using BMI's proprietary global Business Environment Risk Ratings.

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Testimonials

The sections that I find most interesting and useful are the macroeconomic data and forecasts for the country, top export destinations and economic activity. The indicators/analysis of these areas helps us orient our thinking, our assumptions and, consequently, our decisions in the commercial area.

Country Manager, DHL Express